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As for the ending, my prediction remains the same as it was two years ago.
Frozen conflict for decades, Korea-style. With worse outcome for Ukraine in all possible terms, than than they could get in 2023.
And much worse than they could get in 2022.

There is still room for further worsening though.

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Yep, "Ukraine has won because it survided as independent country" narrative will be the next step.
I wrote about this reframing ~6 months ago, it took longer than I expected though.

Thank you for correction. Ukraine will lose.
Which just confirms that even if successful, Russia hasn't got the first idea about how to actually win anything here. And it's not the point – that is rather how everyone else should lose. Hypothetically that might make Russia feel better about itself – but really only hypothetically...

Because if this is the level of resentful bitterness Russian potential success entails, then the last thing the Russian psychodrama that is the war in Ukraine needs is Russian "victory". All that will do is make Russia even more resentful and bitter. And on we go to the next Russian war of aggression fueled by it.

So, better for the Russians to lose. It can't win since even success is just a wasteland, and Ukraine fixed in place as a permanent wedge between Russia and the rest of Europe.
 
Well that would mean the border between the Civilized World and the Russosphere moves a bit more to the East, it was in Germany when I was young.

Who knows where it will end.
 
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At any rate, Ukraine is toast.

Democracies are too weak to fight against a determined tyrant that everyone is afraid to oppose too much. If Hitler had nukes, WW2 would probably have remained a European war and the Jews would've been wiped out. On the positive side, there would've been no Israel, I guess.
 
I'd have to look at the map, there is a sizeable piece of Ukraine in bewteen Moldovia and the Russian army I think.

Probably something in the Baltics, if they're really stupid.
 
By the way, congrats with the anniversary.
On November 6, 1943, Soviet Army troops of the 1st Ukrainian Front under the command of Army General Nikolai Vatutin liberated the city of Kiev from the Nazi troops during the Kiev offensive operation.
 
For the conflict to end like the Korean war, US forces will have to be stationed somewhere inside Ukraine. Don't think that's happening.
 
First Putin will have to agree to a ceasefire, don't think that is going to happen either. The war is his life insurance, it will last as long as he does.

Korean war couldn't end before Stalin was dead either.
 
Putin was agree to ceasefire and even to pulling back troops, in March 2022. He will agree to the better deal too.
NATO membership must be ruled out for Ukraine, of course.
Winning in Ukraine won't worsen Putin's positions inside the country, obviously. Zelensky OTOH will be done for, so he'll do everything to prolong it.
 
Nothing to see here, it's obvious the NK brigades came to Kursk just for the tourism...they wouldn't dare a more than justifiable escalation by Ukraine's allies.

North Korea Enters Ukraine Fight for First Time, Officials Say​

North Korean troops have entered the fight in Russia’s war against Ukraine, clashing for the first time with Ukrainian forces who are occupying a large chunk of Russia’s Kursk region, according to a senior Ukrainian official and a senior U.S. official.
The engagement was limited, the Ukrainian official said, and likely meant to probe the Ukrainian lines for weaknesses. The North Koreans fought together with Russia’s 810 Separate Naval Infantry Brigade, the official said.
It was unclear when the fighting took place. The Ukrainian official offered no details about casualties, but the U.S. official said a significant number of North Korean troops were killed. Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive military information.
The North Korean troops are part of what Ukrainian and Western officials estimate to be a contingent of about 10,000 soldiers sent by the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, to bolster Russian forces trying to dislodge the Ukrainians from the Kursk region. Ukraine’s forces currently hold about 250 square miles there after an incursion that began last summer.
Though the bulk of the North Korean troops have not yet seen action, Western and Ukrainian officials have called their appearance on the battlefield a major escalation after more than two years of war.
In his nightly address, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine seemed to confirm that North Korean forces had entered the fight, and he called on Ukraine’s allies to assist in confronting this new threat.
 
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