[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[red_elk]

Kazakhstan receives decoded black box data from crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane​

ALMATY, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- Kazakhstan has received the decoded data from the two black boxes of the crashed Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft and is conducting further analysis of it, the Kazakh Transport Ministry said Wednesday.

The flight recorders (black boxes) were delivered to Kazakhstan from Brazil and are now being studied by specialists, the ministry said in a statement.

"The commission, in line with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Annex 13 standards, will publish a preliminary report after a detailed study of all facts and materials, providing established factual information and the progress of the investigation," the ministry said.

Kazakhstan receives decoded black box data from crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane

Kazakhstan receives decoded black box data from crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane-

english.news.cn

People who accused Russia in not allowing the plane to land in Russian airports soon will have a chance to prove themselves right.
Or, rather get their nose rubbed in the evidence.

 

[Gedemon]

Does that mean civilian flights will be allowed to travel again over the Russian war zone ?

 

[EvaDK]

Russian Economy Time Bomb: Putin Warned of 'Seismically Disruptive' War Debt​

Russia is financing its military spending through a shadow plan that poses a "seismically disruptive" threat to an economy already buffeted by high inflation and interest rates, according to an analysis.

Craig Kennedy, a former Morgan Stanley investment banker, has described how the Russian state requires banks to issue preferential loans to military firms that are making President Vladimir Putin's war effort in Ukraine possible.

That gives the Russian economy a better bill of health, misleading experts into thinking that Putin can continue with record military spending without any adverse effects to the country's finances, according to Kennedy.

Kennedy's findings suggest that the Russian economy could face corporate and banking collapse with its continued military spending, suggesting that Western support for Kyiv may be able to surpass Moscow's ability to maintain a war of attrition.

Kennedy said Russia has followed a two-track strategy to fund its war via its defense budget expenditures as well as an off-budget plan of similar size enabled by a law enacted on February 25, 2022, which compels Russian banks to give preferential loans to military-related businesses.

In that period, Russia has faced a 71 percent expansion in corporate debt worth $415 billion or 19.4 percent of GDP—higher than oil and gas revenues and defense budget expenditures, Kennedy said in his Navigating Russia newsletter.

That means Russia's total war costs "far exceed" what official budget expenditures would suggest.

This off-budget defense funding was harder to sustain during the second half of 2024, spiking inflation and pushing up interest rates for "real" economy borrowers to above 21 percent, "creating the preconditions for a systemic credit crisis," Kennedy said.

He said preferential bank loans worth up to $250 billion had been given to defense contractors, many of which had poor credit.

This is driving up inflation and interest rate hikes and risks triggering a systemic crisis and the longer Moscow delays ending the war, the closer it will move toward corporate and banking collapses that the Russian government would be forced to cover.

In reporting Kennedy's findings, the Financial Times said that Putin "sits on a ticking financial time bomb of his own making" and that Kyiv's allies must deny Moscow greater access to external funds.

"Putin has commandeered the Russian banking system, with banks required to lend to companies designated by the government at chosen, preferential terms."

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-sanctions-economy-inflation-kennedy-2013777

So, Russian defense companies are being financed with hidden loans and the banks are instructed by the Kremlin to issue these loans, potentially uninsured loans? If these companies go under, the banks holding the debt likely go under as well, unless Putin has a couple of hundred billions to bail them out.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

A bit more of pressure and the whole russian cards castle will fall on the head of the psycho midget. I think the current Ukrainian strategy of massively attacking fuel depots and refineries is partially aimed to that end.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Russia jails lawyers who acted for late opposition leader Alexei Navalny​

Three lawyers who acted for late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny have been given jail terms of up to five-and-a-half years on charges of taking part in an "extremist organisation".

Vadim Kobzev, Igor Sergunin and Alexei Liptser were arrested in October 2023 as Russian authorities intensified pressure on the jailed Kremlin critic, who died suddenly last February in an Arctic prison colony.

They were put on trial behind closed doors in Petushki, a town east of Moscow, and accused of "using their status" to relay messages between Navalny and his colleagues.

Navalny had condemned the case as just like Soviet times, and an indication of "the state of rule of law in Russia".

Igor Sergunin was the only one of the three to admit the charge, according to independent reports, and was given a lighter sentence of three-and-a-half years.

Alexei Liptser was jailed for five years in a penal colony and Vadim Kobzev was given five-and-a-half years.

Kobzev's own lawyer, Andrei Grivtsov, said the evidence against them amounted to illegal invasion of privacy.

"They're not allowed to eavesdrop on meetings between a lawyer and a client in a penal colony in principle - there's a direct legislative ban," he told BBC Russian.

Alexei Liptser's lawyer, Andrei Orlov, told reporters that Friday's court decision was very sad: "But we are not going to stop just yet. We are going to keep moving."

The three lawyers were put on trial close to the penal colony in Pokrov, where Navalny was initially sent when he returned to Russia in January 2021, having survived a nerve agent attack that he blamed on Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin denied the allegation and Navalny remained in Russian penal colonies until his death, north of the Arctic Circle and 1,900km (1,200 miles) north-east of Moscow.

His widow, Yulia Navalnaya, blamed Putin for his death, which authorities put down to "sudden death syndrome".

Several months after Navalny was detained in 2021, Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation and his regional offices were banned by a Moscow court, which classified them as "extremist".

Navalny, who was already in jail on other charges, was then convicted of founding and funding an extremist organisation too.

The head of Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation, Ivan Zhdanov, pointed out that that the three lawyers were sentenced on 17 January - the same day Navalny was arrested and jailed on his return to Russia from Germany: "Tell me this is a coincidence."

Amnesty International said that by targeting lawyers "for merely doing their job, the Russian authorities are dismantling what remains of the right to legal defence".

According to investigators, the three men had acted as members of Navalny's "extremist community", meeting the opposition leader and exchanging information with him.

Yulia Navalnaya said the three men were "political prisoners and should be freed immediately".

Another of Navalny's lawyers, Olga Mikhailova, who has left Russia, said the sentences were "brutal and absurd" and that the men had been punished for honestly carrying out "their duties, their professional and moral position".

Ms Mikhailova, whose offices were raided in 2023, says she herself has also been accused of extremism in absentia. Another Navalny lawyer, Aleksandr Fedulov, also fled Russia after their three colleagues were detained.

After their arrest, Navalny appeared at a court hearing in October 2023 from a maximum security penal colony east of Moscow and complained that he had been denied all legal representation.

"My lawyer is not here. All the other lawyers are not here. Nobody is allowed to visit me. I am isolated and cut off from any information," he told the hearing.

Two months later, he was moved to an even more remote penal colony named Polar Wolf, where he was held in a punishment cell and died aged 47. His widow rejected the cause of death provided by authorities as a lie.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce3nnvq7kplo

 

[EnglishEdward]

So, Russian defense companies are being financed with hidden loans and the banks are instructed by the Kremlin to issue these loans, potentially uninsured loans? If these companies go under, the banks holding the debt likely go under as well, unless Putin has a couple of hundred billions to bail them out.

Those defense companies that fail to produce the goods will certainly go under when Vlad Putin pulls the plug on their income.

And as for the banks being stuck with unrecoverable loans, the central bank will no doubt bail them out.

 

[Verbose]

Those defense companies that fail to produce the goods will certainly go under when Vlad Putin pulls the plug on their income.

And as for the banks being stuck with unrecoverable loans, the central bank will no doubt bail them out.

The writing on the wall indicates the size of the problem has now grown to an extent where the CB won't have the sheer heft to do so – which is why things are shaping up to system threatening levels.

These mandated "contributions" by the Russian banking system to the arms industry is of a size that the banks' exposure corresponds to about 20% of the total Russia GDP. These private banks certainly doesn't have that kind of ready cash lying around, and so the fundamental guarantor is already the Russia CB. But not even the Russian CB cannot magic the equivalent of another 20% of Russian GDP out of thin air – as that would be the size of the overdraft to keep this war going. Which is not the formal government spending, as that is just the official expense and goes on top of it all – 6,3% of GDP projected for 2025. So Russia might already be peeing away as much a quarter plus of it's GDP on the war, payment for it all so far deferred for later... This "later" however is approaching, possibly accelerating.

Trump might well need to urgently bail out his buddy Vlad about now, while the Russian charade can still be maintained, before things start to really creak.

 

[Ordnael]

Trump might well need to urgently bail out his buddy Vlad about now, while the Russian charade can still be maintained, before things start to really creak.

I think daddy Xi will step up for that and thus advance the special vassalization operation of the failing Russian State. Maybe Xi will, finally, civilise those western barbarian neighbours of his.

 

[EnglishEdward]

I think the a portion of the Russian defence industry is not delivering.

e.g. what happened to the next generation tanks?

I reckon Russia can afford to spend 25% of its GDP on the war almost indefinitely.

Westerners may hope for Russian disillusionment and collapse,
as in Syria, but I am wary of wishful thinking.

 

[really]

Those defense companies that fail to produce the goods will certainly go under when Vlad Putin pulls the plug on their income.

And as for the banks being stuck with unrecoverable loans, the central bank will no doubt bail them out.

That's the problem for the Russian economy.
If the banks require a bailout, the only place that money is coming from is by printing more and as inflation is already a problem, it would compound it.
It could lead eventually to hyperinflation.

 

[Verbose]

I reckon Russia can afford to spend 25% of its GDP on the war almost indefinitely.

Not as the kind of modern society it still presents itself as, and clearly wants to be seen as. A lot of it's Global South appeal etc. is predicated on this ability.

All this effort is going to start to show.

 

[Akka]

I think the a portion of the Russian defence industry is not delivering.

e.g. what happened to the next generation tanks?

You can ask the same for the next generation planes - the Su-57 is about on par with the T-14 Armata when it comes to wunderweapon vaporware that was supposed to fully equip the entire army ten years ago, but in reality is just an unreliable hyped-up legend that hasn't been able to get over the single-digit units per year.

I reckon Russia can afford to spend 25% of its GDP on the war almost indefinitely.

Westerners may hope for Russian disillusionment and collapse,
as in Syria, but I am wary of wishful thinking.

I'm pretty sure that Russia can last years by hiding debts and using orders from above to force people to do stuff regardless and cover the whole thing up. But it means it's inherently shaky and just as liable to crumble as to stand.

 

[Ordnael]

I reckon Russia can afford to spend 25% of its GDP on the war almost indefinitely.

I'm pretty sure that Russia can last years by hiding debts and using orders from above to force people to do stuff regardless and cover the whole thing up

It's pretty easy to do so while running an authoritarian regime disguised as a democracy that has no accountability for the head of state.
Vietnam was ages ago, people shouted and screamed on the streets and eventually the US military had to back-down, in Russian you can't even lay down flowers on a monument that the state has considered risqué towards their current vision of affairs. Unfortunately people have to bleed a lot for real change to happen in an authoritarian regime, and there's still no guarantee that change will come, looking at Venezuela, looking at Cuba, Iran, looking at failed African nations. At the worst your authoritarian leader can mind control you and deify him and his offspring into something akin to North Korea dynasty. Putin will one day step-down, and others will take his place...but will the North Koreans ever be rid of the Kims!?

 

[EvaDK]

Those defense companies that fail to produce the goods will certainly go under when Vlad Putin pulls the plug on their income.

And as for the banks being stuck with unrecoverable loans, the central bank will no doubt bail them out.

Right now, Russian politicians in the Duma are having hot arguments on whether the Russian Central Bank secretly plans to freeze retail deposits in Russian banks. As an offshoot of that debate and the news stories and rumors coming out, average Russians will start worrying whether their assets and savings in Russian banks risk being frozen too. All in the name of raising funds for the war effort and prep up a Russian defense industry on the verge of bankruptcy without capital.

The keystring here is this; if the average Russians fear that the state will freeze their money, they will start forming lines and withdraw their savings. That would spell the end of the Russian banking sector with a predictable outcome for the Russian economy as a whole.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rat...ses-retail-deposit-freeze-rumours-2025-01-13/
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-banking-freezing-sanctions-interest-2015294

 

[EnglishEdward]

What would likely happen then is that the retail banks would, with the approval of the central
bank and the government, ration withdrawals to match the available cash in the banks.

To my mind, the single thing most likely to impact the reluctant willingness of the Russian
people to continue the war is if China was to demand an unacceptable price for its support.

 

[red_elk]

It's ok, Europe will help with financial issues.

European imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia at ‘record levels’​

Europe bought a record amount of liquefied natural gas from Russia last year, data shows, despite EU efforts to ditch the fossil fuels funding Putin’s war chest.
Ships carrying 17.8m tonnes of ultra-cold Russian gas docked in European ports in 2024, up by more than 2m tonnes from the year before, according to analysts Rystad Energy.

Jan-Eric Fähnrich, a gas analyst at Rystad Energy, said LNG flows were not only on the rise but “at record levels”.

European imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia at ‘record levels’

Rystad Energy releases data days after Ukraine stopped flows of Russian gas through its pipelines

www.theguardian.com

EU devouring Russian gas at record speed despite cutoff​

Europe is buying Russian gas at an unprecedented rate in 2025, spending billions of dollars the Kremlin can use to fund its war in Ukraine just weeks after the end of a major transit agreement raised hopes the continent may break its dependency on Moscow. Data collected by commodities intelligence firm Kpler and analyzed by POLITICO reveals that in the first 15 days of 2025, the European Union's 27 countries imported 837,300 metric tons of liquefied natural gas from Russia.

That marks a record high, up from the 760,100 tons brought in during the same period last year, fueling concerns that Western nations aren't doing enough to squeeze Russian funds as Moscow's war enters its fourth year.

EU devours Russian gas at record speed despite cutoff

Pressure to impose sanctions, a raging war and a looming Trump presidency still have not quenched the bloc’s thirst for Russian gas.

www.politico.eu

 

[Verbose]

It's ok, Europe will help with financial issues.

European imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia at ‘record levels’​

Europe bought a record amount of liquefied natural gas from Russia last year, data shows, despite EU efforts to ditch the fossil fuels funding Putin’s war chest.
Ships carrying 17.8m tonnes of ultra-cold Russian gas docked in European ports in 2024, up by more than 2m tonnes from the year before, according to analysts Rystad Energy.

Jan-Eric Fähnrich, a gas analyst at Rystad Energy, said LNG flows were not only on the rise but “at record levels”.

European imports of liquefied natural gas from Russia at ‘record levels’

Rystad Energy releases data days after Ukraine stopped flows of Russian gas through its pipelines

www.theguardian.com

EU devouring Russian gas at record speed despite cutoff​

Europe is buying Russian gas at an unprecedented rate in 2025, spending billions of dollars the Kremlin can use to fund its war in Ukraine just weeks after the end of a major transit agreement raised hopes the continent may break its dependency on Moscow. Data collected by commodities intelligence firm Kpler and analyzed by POLITICO reveals that in the first 15 days of 2025, the European Union's 27 countries imported 837,300 metric tons of liquefied natural gas from Russia.

That marks a record high, up from the 760,100 tons brought in during the same period last year, fueling concerns that Western nations aren't doing enough to squeeze Russian funds as Moscow's war enters its fourth year.

EU devours Russian gas at record speed despite cutoff

Pressure to impose sanctions, a raging war and a looming Trump presidency still have not quenched the bloc’s thirst for Russian gas.

www.politico.eu

The EU has no sanctions on trade in food or medicines with Russia for example. But that kind of thing helps people – all the Russian energy exports are for is to allow the Russian government to go on with the killing and destruction. So obviously it's the only things Russians care about?

EU trade with Russia - latest developments - Statistics Explained

EU statistics provide an analysis of the international trade in goods between the EU and Russia by main product groups and energy products.

ec.europa.eu

 

[red_elk]

The EU has no sanctions on trade in food or medicines with Russia for example. But that kind of thing helps people – all the Russian energy exports are for is to allow the Russian government to go on with the killing and destruction. So obviously it's the only things Russians care about?

Can't speak for everybody, but I, for one, only care about killing and destruction.

 

[Kyriakos]

Regarding energy, we will have to see if there is any actual change in import routes. Since Israel now has control of the area, the plan for an underwater pipeline to the Eu could in theory be resumed. It can, of course, mean even more war. Or it could mean that Russia will sell its energy primarily to its Brics allies and tied states.
I am not convinced that it will happen - of course it would be profitable for the Eu (which currently has to buy very expensive energy), but would it be profitable for the US?

 

[saamohod]

Russian trainee pilots appear to be hunting Ukrainian civilians​

Kherson, a regional capital in southern Ukraine, endured eight months of Russian occupation before Ukrainian forces liberated it in November 2022. The Russians retreated to the other side of the Dnipro river, but have indiscriminately shelled the city ever since. In June 2023 they blew up the nearby Kakhovka dam, flooding low-lying areas of Kherson. Now the city’s 80,000 inhabitants, down from a prewar population of 280,000, face a new sort of misery. For six months Russian drones have been attacking civilians daily, chasing cars and pedestrians through the streets in what locals call a “safari”.

There have been more than 1,000 drone strikes since last summer, injuring over 500 people and killing 36, according to municipal authorities. Surveillance drones patrol high up; smaller attack drones (known as FPVs, or first-person-view drones), with a flying time of between 20-40 minutes, sit on rooftops to conserve battery power. The munitions dropped are often makeshift: mortar shells, grenades, canisters containing shrapnel or darts, or bottles of petrol that ignite.

Shops, schools, clinics, private houses, delivery vans, buses, firetrucks and first responders are routinely targeted. Several administrative officials have been wounded. In one case, says Roman Mrochko, the head of the military authority in Kherson, a minibus “was almost completely destroyed, but the driver heroically saved the injured people by driving, you could say on scrap metal, to the hospital.” In the riverside neighbourhoods where the attacks are concentrated, designated “red zones” by Russians on Telegram channels, life has been throttled. There is no gas, water, electricity or municipal heat. Public transport is suspended. Ambulances wait outside the area for police in armoured cars to ferry the wounded to them.

The very few people still living in these areas, mostly pensioners, hardly dare to go out. People listen for the tell-tale buzz and run from wall to wall, taking cover under trees. They avoid using cars, which are easy targets, in part because it is hard for drivers to hear approaching drones. When people do drive, they speed to outrun the attackers. Rain, which hampers drone flights, sometimes provides a bit of respite.

Iryna Sokur, the director of the Kherson Oncological Hospital, which was the only cancer facility in the region, describes a litany of attacks against patients, staff and ambulances. “On November 11th two ambulances were burnt in a drone attack. The next day a third was hit. On November 26th the head of our lab was killed on her way to work.” One man was killed in his car in the parking lot as he waited to pick up a relative after their treatment. Ms Sokur herself has been chased by drones on two occasions. In early winter, as the situation became untenable, almost all the patients were evacuated. On December 20th two glide bombs destroyed the hospital.

The purpose of the Russian campaign is not clear. Mr Mrochko suggests the Russians are training drone pilots on Kherson’s civilians. Or it may be a tactic to establish a buffer zone, or to prepare for an offensive to retake part of the west bank of the river. The incidence of artillery strikes in Kherson has also been rising. The bombardment that smashed the oncological hospital on December 20th was the largest since the city’s liberation, a barrage of more than 1000 shells that covered a failed attempt by Russian forces to advance closer to the city.

Belkis Wille of Human Rights Watch, a rights watchdog, is compiling a report on the Kherson attacks. She says they are “deliberate” and may be calculated “to force civilians to leave the area”. Civilian casualties often result from indiscriminate or disproportionate attacks, Ms Wille notes, but the drones target civilians precisely.

Russian trainee pilots appear to be hunting Ukrainian civilians

Residents of Kherson are dodging murderous drones

www.economist.com