[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

That's why Russia started the war, remember, they wanted to be heard by the USA
Interesting fantasies you have.
and they only had to pay with just one million casualties, a destroyed economy, their position as an arm dealer, almost their whole cold war stock of armors, 3 AWACS, one Su-57, one capital ship (and half a fleet), one submarine and a few donkeys.
10 million casualties, destroyed economy, civil war and complete collapse of the country - everything is possible in your dreams.
 
It is really bad that when the US stops supporting Ukraine, some believe that it's a signal for the Eu to take over. It's as if they don't realize that the Eu is fully dependent on the US (which is partly also a result of cutting energy ties to Russia) and literally cannot go against it currently.

What bothers me the most about this meeting of the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia is about that:


1739912761629.png
 
I am happy about Trump doing the neceseary steps for europe wake up and take the place it correspond to, i wonder how this can benefit USA. It is the opposite they have been working for since WW2. It is even worse for Russia of course. Sometimes i think Trump is simply dumb, then a Russian asset, then dumb again. pretty disconcerting.
If you're, theoretically, counting on somebody to have your back in a fight... then they need to at least be awake.

Spoiler They can be mad just fine :
 

Trump says Zelensky should not have started the war.
...
Got that? Okay now with that out of the way, something more substantive. Trump also goes on to say Zelensky should have held elections when his legal term ended. A problem compounded by the fact that Ukraine is operating under martial (read: wartime) law and thus cannot, right now at least.
So we have two possibilities:
- Trump advocates that Zelensky break or at least change his own laws in order to, I don't know, solidify his legitimacy (?) for any party to want to deal with him in negotiations.
- Trump doesn't know what he's talking about.

Feb. 18, 2025, 5:31 PM EST
By Zoë Richards
President Donald Trump suggested Tuesday that Ukraine was responsible for Russia's invasion of the country three years ago, arguing Kyiv could have made a deal to avoid the conflict.

“You should have never started it,” Trump said of Ukraine while criticizing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who had expressed concern that his country was not included in talks between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia.


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"I think I have the power to end this war, and I think it's going very well. But today I heard, 'Oh, well, we weren't invited.' Well, you've been there for three years," Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort. "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal."


1739882440793_tdy_news_7a_simmons_meeting_250218_1920x1080-y74sy6.jpg



US, Russia meet to talk end of Ukraine war — without Zelenskyy
02:11
Trump went on to say: "I could have made a deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land, everything, almost all of the land, and no people would have been killed, and no city would have been demolished, and not one dome would have been knocked down. But they chose not to do it that way."

The Ukrainian Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Trump's remarks.

The U.S. and Russia on Tuesday agreed to re-establish embassy staffing, diverging from previous American policy on the matter. Zelenskyy said earlier Tuesday that “Ukraine did not know anything about it.”

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Trump, who said last week that he and President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone about ending the war, has made several comments bolstering the Russian president. He said during an interview with Fox News last month that Ukraine should not have fought when it was invaded by Russia.


Trump also criticized Zelenskyy when asked by reporters if the U.S. would support Ukraine holding new elections as part of a potential peace deal with Russia.

“When they want a seat at the table, you could say the people have to, wouldn’t the people of Ukraine have to say, like, ‘You know, it’s been a long time since we’ve had an election.’ That’s not a Russia thing. That’s something coming from me and coming from many other countries also,” Trump said.

Ukraine last held a presidential election in 2019.
 

Trump says Zelensky should not have started the war.
...
Got that? Okay now with that out of the way, something more substantive. Trump also goes on to say Zelensky should have held elections when his legal term ended. A problem compounded by the fact that Ukraine is operating under martial (read: wartime) law and thus cannot, right now at least.
So we have two possibilities:
- Trump advocates that Zelensky break or at least change his own laws in order to, I don't know, solidify his legitimacy (?) for any party to want to deal with him in negotiations.
- Trump doesn't know what he's talking about.
Maybe Trump thinks that trying to stop Russia from regaining formal and/or effective control over former USSR territories is not worth the effort anymore because the United States government will need many years to reduce their debt levels and fiscal deficit.

I have no information on a key question. What is the current (early 2025) estimated level of the strongest pro-Russia political party in Ukraine?
 
Actually that Zelensky is not legitimate is what Russian bots pushing here for some months.
Zelensky was the one of many Russian misjudgements. Hes not part of old Russian corrupted world structures, people like Poroschenko who would never produce such sympathy abroad (I do not judge competences).
Its clearly way how to weaken cause and bring pressure on victim. If will Zelensky promise elections he will betray Ukrainian laws, if he will not he will be blamed abroad for autocracy.
Maybe the goal is his resignation as concession to Putin.
 
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This looks beyond horrible for Ukraine, but is quite likely to be near what will happen:

1739937669356.png

There is something even worse, of course; the possibility that Ukraine will either implode after the war (including with mass exodus of people to other countries) and/or Russia will invade again in the not so distant future. Odessa being the obvious goal.
When your main backer (US) is openly declaring that it needs immediate payment for its war support from you, there is no hope of a very different outcome.
 
Russia has already rejected that plan anyway.
 
Nice map.

I see four Union Jacks, but we don't have four light brigades.

A diminished Ukraine should declare that it is a new state, New Ukraine, Heart of Ukraine, West Ukraine
or whatever, different from the old Ukraine and refuse to honour any debts incurred by the old Ukraine.
Then they can sell their rare earths for useful stuff from China and look for a better relationship.

The alternative being struggling in near perpetual debt bondage to both the USA and to the EU.
 
Oh I know why.

It is because Sir Keir Starmer remains a Remainer and never really
accepted the public vote to disengage from European politics.
 
Oh I know why.

It is because Sir Keir Starmer remains a Remainer and never really
accepted the public vote to disengage from European politics.
We left the EU, that's all Brexit was about. Any other political choices are independent of that, nomatter how isolationist you may individually prefer us to be.
 
There is little value preferring things for which there is no capability.

The UK has operated overseas in Kosovo, Iraq and in Iran under
the umbrella of US airpower and logistics support etc etc.

If Donald isn't going to provide that, the UK should be very wary.
 
Actually that Zelensky is not legitimate is what Russian bots pushing here for some months.
Zelensky was the one of many Russian misjudgements. Hes not part of old Russian corrupted world structures, people like Poroschenko who would never produce such sympathy abroad (I do not judge competences).
Its clearly way how to weaken cause and bring pressure on victim. If will Zelensky promise elections he will betray Ukrainian laws, if he will not he will be blamed abroad for autocracy.
Maybe the goal is his resignation as concession to Putin.
Russia doesn't need his resignation. The situation when he clings to power, creating internal turmoil, opening criminal cases against his potential opponents (Poroshenko, Arestovich, few others), or dismissing competent commanders who became too popular (Zaluzhny) is exactly what Russia needs. Adding to that Trump's apparent personal distaste to him, Zelensky is current Russia's favorite person to be Ukrainian president, among all realistic ones. His current task is to annoy Trump even more, hopefully enough to shut down all American aid to Ukraine.
 
This looks beyond horrible for Ukraine, but is quite likely to be near what will happen:
Russia will likely push for neutral peacekeepers, if any. All these are just speculations so far, not much details from 5 hour long talks were disclosed.
I'd predict discussions will take quite a bit longer, cease fire in April is unlikely.
 
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