To reinforce this - a key thing in Georgia is the efforts of Stacey Abrams and her supporters to beat deliberate anti black suppression and get more and more people registered and at the polls. The demographic shift is heavily about lowering the gap between the non-white percentage of the Georgian population and the non-white percentage of the people who cast votes.
2020 US Election (Part 3)
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To reinforce this - a key thing in Georgia is the efforts of Stacey Abrams and her supporters to beat deliberate anti black suppression and get more and more people registered and at the polls. The demographic shift is heavily about lowering the gap between the non-white percentage of the Georgian population and the non-white percentage of the people who cast votes.
I would already be happy when repairs happen against cynical abuse of the loopholes
Here an initiative to eliminate the democratic risks of the electors college:
(perhaps this one does not need a consitutional change because it is more like an alliance of states as addon)
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196 electors are just too few.
Fptp is a terrible system.
Bamspeedy
CheeseBob
I don't think any state is at 100%, all states are at 99% until overseas ballots are in. Biden is up over 900 in Georgia, but it's almost done and the last batches in Georgia are expected to be pro-Biden, so the lead should just expand.
Before it's all said and done, we could see Trump filing for recounts in:
Wisconsin
Michigan
Georgia
Nevada
Arizona
Pennsylvania (Trump only up 0.3% as of now)
Who knows, maybe even NC flips to Biden, too.
The culture behind FPTP is "winner takes all" AND "we" want "our own" representative we can hold personally accountable (a feudal remnant fitting individual accountability above a non-personal, abstract political party statute)
It's not just a technical difference
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
That would require, as I’m sure you know, an amendment to the Constitution and it would be very hard if not impossible to get the smaller states to agree to something like that.
I’d be okay with something like the French system as far as I understand it where the two leading candidates end up in a runoff election.
ONLY for a POTUS: Imo the most important part of a change is that all votes determine DIRECTLY the amount of votes candidates get. And indeed with more than two candidates you will need a more step process of such direct votes.
And yes, with such a big country like the US you cannot imo apply methods, elections, structures like in a much smaller unitarian nation state. It's not only big versus small states (with for example population as yardstick)
However nicely governance is delegated downward, the very priciple of a unitarian state is that the power to change incl reversing any regional self determination stays in the hands of the central government.
My guess about the US is that the federal power is much too big regarding domestic choices of policies incl much too much money plowed cronely around from state to federal and back to the states severely hindering states to determine their own democratic balance between public and private money streams in their state. Let the states be more competitive towards each other on the package they offer to their citizens and citizens free to decide with their votes and with their feet.
My other guess is that multi party systems would be good solutions for many states.
Estebonrober
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Yes already happening and it is still my main concern. The right wing forums are filled with calls for violent action.
hobbsyoyo
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She registered 800k new voters in the 2 years since she had her own election for governor stolen. I wonder if Kemp sees the writing on the wall yet?
EgonSpengler
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So I read that some Democrats are already pointing fingers at the progressives. 'Cause what we all really need is for the Democratic Party to be more conservative. 
Biden takes lead in PA
Massive Cheeting
Massive Cheeting
innonimatu
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So I read that some Democrats are already pointing fingers at the progressives. 'Cause what we all really need is for the Democratic Party to be more conservative.
That's to be expected: offense is the best defense idea... they know they screwed up and failed, with a right-wing strategy, so they immediately start saying they weren't right-wing enough. It's an old one.
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Okay comparing 538 averages and the NYTimes current count. Not everything is fully in of course, so some grain of salt. Kinda of rough estimating from remaining votes, by eyeballing it.
And of course, the 538 average isn't entirely based on polls and is partly based on demographics and past voting patterns. So it seems generally more accurate than a simple average of polls.
But why is the average if anything, understating Biden in Colorado, the same in California, probably will be pretty close to right in Georgia, about right in Virginia, about right in Minnesota, only a tad off in New Hampshire, about right in Maine, about right in New Mexico, about right in New Jersey (at the moment only 0.1 off, but with a lot left to count) a bit off in Oregon, about right in Washington, probably right in Illinois (hard to tell, they had a lot left to count in Cook, it could be understated), the same with New York (lots of ballots still out), and the small New England states are much the same.
In redder states, it seems about right in Louisiana, probably Utah considering how many remain to count in Salt Lake City, maybe South Carolina, about right in Oklahoma. Kansas might be right or a bit off. About right in Nebraska.
The polling error seems to be particularly focused, in mainly the critical states. The Blue wall, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, NC, Texas and some, but not all of the redder states. A lot of southern states where Biden isn't hitting the mark, and some of the Interior west states.
Nevada might be a error, depends on how the final 10% splits. It could end up dead on. Arizona has the most unpredictable final count, but it could also be basically on.
So why is the polling error, mostly surgically located where it hurts Biden and the Democrats the most?
Anyway, as for the blame game, I think both sides honestly have good points. Progressives did run behind Biden, and some conservative Democrats did outperform Biden. There are clearly people deliberately splitting their ballots based on ideological positioning and rhetoric.
But Biden and Democrats also ran behind a lot of progressive stuff on the ballot, polling has been pretty clear that Americans want progressive stuff by very large margins (not always specific stuff like M4A, but a lot of stuff on the Democratic party platform) and they hate what Republicans govern on, and well, there just seems to be a mass messaging strategy mishap to let Trump get it this close, and for all this ticket-splitting to happen.
But generally, looking at the 538 averages for states, makes me think better about their predicting. The added demographic and past voting pattern has them not get it as wrong as a simple poll average (which is way worse). And a lot of the polling firms, in particular, were really really off. . But there are still some clear errors, and in many of the same states.
I will hold off on my national polling takes, since there doesn't seem to be a clear indication of how many ballots remain.
Unsure. The election people seem to think it is still lean/likely Trump
The Elect Project estimates 478,828 outstanding ballots across the state, of which
231,035 are Democratic
87,224 are Republican
3,000 are Minor Parties
157,569 are Non Partisan affliation.
The current Count is
2,732,120 Trump
2,655,383 Biden.
That is a gap of 76737. So more than enough, simply by adding the outstanding Democrats, vs outstanding Republicans, even assuming an even split of NPA.
BUT not all of those will get returned, and some of those would have already voted on election day, instead of mailing them in, and so may or may not have been counted, or counted as a provisional vote.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections, estimates a much lower 116,000 absentee by-mail ballots to count. Which Biden would need to win by a much larger percentage, to win. And Cal Cunningham would need to sweep to win.
https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-ca...remain-to-be-counted-elections-officials-say/
The Board of elections is more likely to be right, but many states have underestimated how many ballots would be returned in some states. I've seen multiple other estimates of NC results. The 94-96% remaining from sites like the ABC, and NYTimes, would be more than the North Carolina Board of elections is estimating, but less than the total outstanding. Thought some of those may be election day votes uncounted for reasons. And when the needle was there, it was favouring Trump.
So the answer is generally we don't know.
And of course, the 538 average isn't entirely based on polls and is partly based on demographics and past voting patterns. So it seems generally more accurate than a simple average of polls.
But why is the average if anything, understating Biden in Colorado, the same in California, probably will be pretty close to right in Georgia, about right in Virginia, about right in Minnesota, only a tad off in New Hampshire, about right in Maine, about right in New Mexico, about right in New Jersey (at the moment only 0.1 off, but with a lot left to count) a bit off in Oregon, about right in Washington, probably right in Illinois (hard to tell, they had a lot left to count in Cook, it could be understated), the same with New York (lots of ballots still out), and the small New England states are much the same.
In redder states, it seems about right in Louisiana, probably Utah considering how many remain to count in Salt Lake City, maybe South Carolina, about right in Oklahoma. Kansas might be right or a bit off. About right in Nebraska.
The polling error seems to be particularly focused, in mainly the critical states. The Blue wall, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, NC, Texas and some, but not all of the redder states. A lot of southern states where Biden isn't hitting the mark, and some of the Interior west states.
Nevada might be a error, depends on how the final 10% splits. It could end up dead on. Arizona has the most unpredictable final count, but it could also be basically on.
So why is the polling error, mostly surgically located where it hurts Biden and the Democrats the most?
Anyway, as for the blame game, I think both sides honestly have good points. Progressives did run behind Biden, and some conservative Democrats did outperform Biden. There are clearly people deliberately splitting their ballots based on ideological positioning and rhetoric.
But Biden and Democrats also ran behind a lot of progressive stuff on the ballot, polling has been pretty clear that Americans want progressive stuff by very large margins (not always specific stuff like M4A, but a lot of stuff on the Democratic party platform) and they hate what Republicans govern on, and well, there just seems to be a mass messaging strategy mishap to let Trump get it this close, and for all this ticket-splitting to happen.
But generally, looking at the 538 averages for states, makes me think better about their predicting. The added demographic and past voting pattern has them not get it as wrong as a simple poll average (which is way worse). And a lot of the polling firms, in particular, were really really off. . But there are still some clear errors, and in many of the same states.
I will hold off on my national polling takes, since there doesn't seem to be a clear indication of how many ballots remain.
Unsure. The election people seem to think it is still lean/likely Trump
The Elect Project estimates 478,828 outstanding ballots across the state, of which
231,035 are Democratic
87,224 are Republican
3,000 are Minor Parties
157,569 are Non Partisan affliation.
The current Count is
2,732,120 Trump
2,655,383 Biden.
That is a gap of 76737. So more than enough, simply by adding the outstanding Democrats, vs outstanding Republicans, even assuming an even split of NPA.
BUT not all of those will get returned, and some of those would have already voted on election day, instead of mailing them in, and so may or may not have been counted, or counted as a provisional vote.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections, estimates a much lower 116,000 absentee by-mail ballots to count. Which Biden would need to win by a much larger percentage, to win. And Cal Cunningham would need to sweep to win.
https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-ca...remain-to-be-counted-elections-officials-say/
The Board of elections is more likely to be right, but many states have underestimated how many ballots would be returned in some states. I've seen multiple other estimates of NC results. The 94-96% remaining from sites like the ABC, and NYTimes, would be more than the North Carolina Board of elections is estimating, but less than the total outstanding. Thought some of those may be election day votes uncounted for reasons. And when the needle was there, it was favouring Trump.
So the answer is generally we don't know.
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Thorgalaeg
Deity
While the army keeps loyal to the law there is not real danger, even with people having all those weapons.
BenitoChavez
What business is it of yours?
It would be sad if he what he was saying wasn't so dangerous. It seems like he genuinely believes that there is a massive conspiracy against him. How does one get so far divorced from reality?
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