Anyway looking at the NYTimes, it seems that even the election people have underestimated how much the mail-in ballots are breaking for Biden generally. Florida is still safely called for Trump, but instead of Trump being at 53% of the vote, it has dropped down to 51.2% with 4% left to count. So Trump will win a bare majority, so only a somewhat improvement on 2016. Some of the swings they had listed before were a bit too much.
I think if the mail in ballots had been counted before more widely, that the reading on the election would be different, even with the same results.
Anyway, I think a big issue for Democrats is overreaching. For example, looking at 2022.
I think Democrats need to be much more focused on
Defending Nevada, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia (if taken in the special)
Taking North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (and taking Georgia is failed to take in Runoff). Overall a tight 7 seats.
A pretty narrow field sure, but Iowa, Ohio and Florida seem pretty solid Red at the moment, and Democrats have gotten burnt on these states a lot recently. And all three could still have long term, fairly well-entrenched incumbents. Grassley, Rubio and Portman all won big in 2016, and even if they drop out, Republicans have solid benches in those states to replace them.
Further out races like Missouri, South Carolina, etc. Run candidates sure. BUT don't give them tens of millions of dollars. It was all wasted.
We might have a Democratic Senator in Maine or North Carolina, if Gideon or Cal had a 100 million, instead of it going to South Carolina and Kentucky. And if the night had been worse, or a late scandal had broken, Democrats could be missing seats in New Mexico, Minnesota or Michigan (the three underperforming Biden) Lots of state legislature races could have used it, and same for House races. Democrats ended up wasting money, maybe worse than the literally embezzling Trump and Brad Pascale.
