hobbsyoyo
Deity
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2012
- Messages
- 26,575
It is plausible because the places doing worst now are reddest and thus less likely to take precautions, in turn making Covid worse.
2020 US Election (Part 3)
- Thread starter Estebonrober
- Start date
- Status
Estebonrober
Deity
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2017
- Messages
- 6,062
Already calling for GOP legislatures to usurp the vote, thanks Obama!
Estebonrober
Deity
- Joined
- Jan 9, 2017
- Messages
- 6,062
A reminder that even if it becomes clear there is no reason to assume this is over.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324474218944339968
I really wonder, who has the Trump magic in the GOP party? Because somehow his confused rambling is just beloved by the base. I really wonder what wires got crossed to make an Orange New York pansy wearing a ton of makeup, mincing around stage talking about handsome generals, catnip for all the 'real American patriots'.
Also before anybody starts shouting praise of Trafalgar. Their polling was just, predict Trump is a few points higher than the average/nation lean.
https://twitter.com/michaelscherer/status/1324450894302380032
Or this map
They have Georgia redder than North Carolina, so they missed the same order of states as everybody else.
Them always predicting an R bias means they look better in years like 2016 and 2020, but looked much worse in 2018. But they are still hacks. Just everybody else is kinda of lost.
I really wonder, who has the Trump magic in the GOP party? Because somehow his confused rambling is just beloved by the base. I really wonder what wires got crossed to make an Orange New York pansy wearing a ton of makeup, mincing around stage talking about handsome generals, catnip for all the 'real American patriots'.
Also before anybody starts shouting praise of Trafalgar. Their polling was just, predict Trump is a few points higher than the average/nation lean.
https://twitter.com/michaelscherer/status/1324450894302380032
Or this map
They have Georgia redder than North Carolina, so they missed the same order of states as everybody else.
Them always predicting an R bias means they look better in years like 2016 and 2020, but looked much worse in 2018. But they are still hacks. Just everybody else is kinda of lost.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
I can think of a lot of sucky ways to blow 500 grand, but there’s a new one. Graham’s team must have some deep pockets if they’re willing to spend it on making a few rich lawyers a percentage point richer.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
That Zelda game for the GameBoy might have been my favorite of the series. SNES also good. Never got into the other ones.
Gobble gobbleoh I'm sure it's not their money.
MagisterCultuum
Great Sage
Note that 4 years ago mother told me that she could never in good conscience vote for Donald Trump. She has always been conservative but never racist, nationalistic, or xenophobic and very much disliked he direction in which Trump was moving the party. She said not to tell dad, as he is much more partisan, but that she opted to vote Libertarian in 2016 and would rather leave a ballot blank that support any MAGA candidates.
That was before the series of strokes left her with roughly the cognitive abilities and emotional maturity of a 6 year old. I'd never consider voting Democrat on her behalf, but am more inclined to trust her judgement from when she was of sound mind.
The only positive thing I've ever heard my mom say about Donald Trump is that she likes his choice of VP.
When she learned that Trump had Covid19 she was excited and said that she hopes he dies so that Pence can president instead.
(I found that surprising, as she is a very kind person who often cries upon learning of the death of strangers. She was inconsolable for days upon hearing that Stephen Hawking had died as an atheist and would never have a chance to find Jesus and go to heaven. )
That was before the series of strokes left her with roughly the cognitive abilities and emotional maturity of a 6 year old. I'd never consider voting Democrat on her behalf, but am more inclined to trust her judgement from when she was of sound mind.
The only positive thing I've ever heard my mom say about Donald Trump is that she likes his choice of VP.
When she learned that Trump had Covid19 she was excited and said that she hopes he dies so that Pence can president instead.
(I found that surprising, as she is a very kind person who often cries upon learning of the death of strangers. She was inconsolable for days upon hearing that Stephen Hawking had died as an atheist and would never have a chance to find Jesus and go to heaven. )
Last edited:
He is still alive. Maybe Stephen Hawking?
MagisterCultuum
Great Sage
Yes, that is what I meant.
You know if you want to predict election results, it seems we need takes from well before the election, not right before.
People were expecting Biden to win the Democratic Primary from 2017 to 2019, then suddenly thought he was going to fade in early 2020 ... and then he won.
Everybody identified The Blue wall and Arizona as the focus for the flips against Trump ... and they were.
Of the House seats following 2018, most identified that Democrats had quite a few overstretched districts, and outside of South Florida, all the losses have come from those overstretched districts.
Anyway aside from Georgia, Democrats need to stop pouring money down red-state races blackhole, and just create their own media apparatus. The right-wing has one, and the corporate media one will follow the rights tune more often than not, or put the focus where Democrats don't want it. The 'left' media apparatus at the moment is more aimed at attacking Democrats and half of it is controlled by the right-wing as stalking horses.
Oh, and Biden needs to use the DOJ to hammer Facebook. Other social media has been bad, but Facebook has been the most overtly pro-Trump. Hell just subpoena their employees. Apparently, their morale just sucks, because a bunch of vaguely cultural liberal tech guys are being used to spread right-wing propaganda, just to make Zuckerberg richer. They will all squeal.
People were expecting Biden to win the Democratic Primary from 2017 to 2019, then suddenly thought he was going to fade in early 2020 ... and then he won.
Everybody identified The Blue wall and Arizona as the focus for the flips against Trump ... and they were.
Of the House seats following 2018, most identified that Democrats had quite a few overstretched districts, and outside of South Florida, all the losses have come from those overstretched districts.
Anyway aside from Georgia, Democrats need to stop pouring money down red-state races blackhole, and just create their own media apparatus. The right-wing has one, and the corporate media one will follow the rights tune more often than not, or put the focus where Democrats don't want it. The 'left' media apparatus at the moment is more aimed at attacking Democrats and half of it is controlled by the right-wing as stalking horses.
Oh, and Biden needs to use the DOJ to hammer Facebook. Other social media has been bad, but Facebook has been the most overtly pro-Trump. Hell just subpoena their employees. Apparently, their morale just sucks, because a bunch of vaguely cultural liberal tech guys are being used to spread right-wing propaganda, just to make Zuckerberg richer. They will all squeal.
Last edited:
Berzerker
Deity
I thought the Dems did better in 2018 as a backlash to efforts at dumping Obamacare, the pendulum swung back a little in favor of the GOP
hobbsyoyo
Deity
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2012
- Messages
- 26,575
No but yesWas Georgia a surprise? I thought it was CSA territory
Biden was barely ahead in the polls there. No one took the polls at face value to begin with and when the polls were wrong about Florida, we all collectively forgot they even called a GA win to begin with.
GA is on the leading edge of the
demographic shift that has loomed over the GOP for a decade. Next is NC, then Texas. Virginia flipped last decade and is just gone to them now.
Last edited:
Well in 2018, it seems like the Democrat activated like 80% of their base, and Republicans activated like 70%. Now both have pulled out 95%. In red districts, that means Democrats lose. (Not hard numbers, just illustrating a point)
The Democrats losing are getting more votes, than when they won in 2018. Some by quite a bit more. If Trump had only pulled out his 2016 numbers, Democrats would be expanding their control instead of contracting. The polling turnout models all need an examination.
Along with some ticket-splitting, and the National environment being more like +5 or +6 than +7 or +8 like in 2018.
Was Georgia a surprise? I thought it was CSA territory
Suburban voters and a growing black population. With a smaller Hispanic population.
NC is whiter (but in prior elections more moderate) with a lower Black baseline and a fair amount of Hispanics.
While Florida is much more Hispanic.
Essentially Biden did have strength with Black voters and did have problems with Hispanics as predicted. Florida made the needle wrongly think it was a more uniform swing, instead of being a Florida + General Hispanic problem.
The Demographic shift model isn't looking so hot right now, and a lot of its relies on Hispanics.
The Emerging Democratic Majority relied on
-Northern Whites being steady for Democrats (instead they have swung a bit to Trump and Republicans
-Hispanics growing to be a strength for Democrats (this is wrong, and they are depolarising)
-Black voters (steady for now for Biden, but not as rock-solid as they used to be).
Democrats have patched some of the holes with the turnout, better than expected youth margins and educated suburban voters. They are still clearly the majority American party. But not an emerging majority that can override all the system biases that favour the GOP.
Anyway, 538 is predicting that Biden will at some point overtake Trump and take both PA and GA. They don't call elections, but he seems the pretty safe bet.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Mar 11, 2008
- Messages
- 27,103
I'd say a better indicator here is a more energized black population...it's always been there. Savannah too...
Zardnaar
Deity
So when are Aussie demographics gonna catch up?
Big brother over the ditch seems almost as bad.
The Great Migration has reversed, and Black voters are returning to the South, for various reasons.
Australia has no demographic destiny politically. The Coalition is doing fine appealing to immigrant voters while balancing the One Nation loons. The Coalition doesn't do much in Federal Office, and so voters continue to allow them to do nothing. When they do try and do stuff (workchoices) is normally when they get thrown out. Morrison hasn't tried to do anything publically toxic yet, just a lot of lower-level corruption and budget messes.
- Status
