2020 US Election (Part One)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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amadeus
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If you mean as far as a personality, it won’t happen again for at least 25-50 years. That’s why Mike Pence was such a strong VP choice: he is the total opposite of Trump in personality and temperament.
Farm Boy
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I would have figured there is a maximum bet, upon receipt of which the house is allowed to recalculate odds for the next bet, just in case a huge better was inclined to string them together.
I suppose the alternative is that the gambling site itself purchases an ultra-gambling policy, ie, an insurance policy against the event of an uneven payout.
I think seeing one demagogue pull it off successfully would inspire others to do the same. I mean, just look at Bloomberg. One billionaire (supposedly) gets the white house and now he's trying too.
amadeus
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But Bloomberg is boring! The guy has got the personality of a tryptophan-coated NyQuil tablet. Even his name kind of makes you want to yawn. Saying his name is even kind of boring. Mi...cha...el Bloom...berg.
Estebonrober
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Short too! No boxes for the tiny mikey! So little. The littlest.
amadeus
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With all due respect, not quite sure whether you agree or disagree with what I said, @Estebonrober. Personality wise, Bloomberg is unfit to go toe-to-toe against Trump.
Biden had it in ‘16, Clinton a close second. This year I think Buttigieg has the best individual personality but doubt he can get the support in the states the Dems need to win the EC.
Remember, I’m not talking about policy so much as I am winning the election. Policy matters but personality matters too.
Biden had it in ‘16, Clinton a close second. This year I think Buttigieg has the best individual personality but doubt he can get the support in the states the Dems need to win the EC.
Remember, I’m not talking about policy so much as I am winning the election. Policy matters but personality matters too.
There is no reason to assume any of this.
Someone a while back IIRC it may have been @Lexicus … posted about polls showing that for Warren supporters, their second choice was overwhelmingly Harris, or vice-vesa. Anecdotally speaking, I was in that group for a while. The point is that if voters are largely not ideologically, or policy driven... folks here have been speculating and posting articles, etc., that this is in fact the case for a while now... then if a lot of Warren's supporters have "elect a woman" as a priority, or simply "elect a non cis white male" … Warren dropping out could end up benefitting Klobuchar or Bootyjudge rather than Bernie.
I'm not saying that is going to happen. This is mostly speculation on my part... I just don't buy the notion that Warren and Bernie voters are interchangeable... I've seen too much evidence to the contrary... both statistical and anecdotal... I mean look how quick so many of the original Bernie supporters here were to write off Warren so early in the campaign... What makes folks think that Warren die-hards haven't done the same with Bernie?
If the race is between Bernie or Bloomberg, or Bernie or Biden, the non-cis-white-man vote is going to have to make a choice.
I took a closer look at the details of the marist polls. Bernie and Warren seem to have very different voting bases. Bernie's is young but diverse (more than half of people under 45 selected him as their preferred candidate), male, vs Warren's good numbers with white college educated women. The question is whether they want the same thing but prefer them in different flavors (so they'll join Sanders when Warren drops out), or if they want very different things and only happened to support ideologically similar candidates by chance.
stinkubus
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For serious sports books political betting is such a small % of their total handle that they are more than happy to let it function as a loss-leader. See ~everyone in the industry paying out Clinton bettors long before the election in 2016.
Sites like Predict It only facilitate trading of futures contracts between their users. They take their vig when the winners cash out.
Lexicus
Deity
The demographic differences between Sanders and Warren voters are one reason why I'm skeptical that it can be assumed that Warren's voters will join Bernie en masse if Warren drops out. Now, I wouldn't go so far as to say that zero Warren supporters will switch to Bernie, but like @Sommerswerd I think we do not have strong enough reason to just assume that Warren's voters will all go to Bernie, or even that most of them will.
FWIW I don't think Bernie should change tactics/messaging to "attract moderates" or "move to the center"... I think he should just stay on message or double down. He needs to inspire turnout and that takes an inspirational message, not a "practical" one. Plus the folks who want a centrist message aren't accessible to him anyway... It's possible that they may be later when there are fewer of the moderate candidates left and he appears more electable/inevitable...
I guess the risk is that voters coalesce around one moderate as others drop out, but that's a risk I think he has to take because he needs to hold his core together to keep winning primaries.
Lexicus
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Exactly. I'm optimistic insofar as I see several of the "moderate" campaigns as pure ego-trips, but ultimately pessimistic because the rich are very good at class solidarity in the end.
There is reason to be very optimistic indeed about what Bernie's high level of support among young people means for the future...the question is whether the right will stamp out democracy entirely before the sapling fully establishes itself...
Estebonrober
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My exposure is pretty limited. I was just having fun mocking Trumps style honestly. Fwiw Bloomberg is my nightmare candidate. I might actually write in a name if he is the dem candidate.
mitsho
Deity
How "moderate" are the "moderate" campaigns by the way. If Trump is 0 and Sanders is 10, are they a 5 or rather a 7? (Bloomberg's a 4, I got that from this thread so far 
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Socrates99
Bottoms up!
That second choice poll was pretty interesting because it showed that a lot of Biden's supporters had Bernie as 2nd choice. The Warren/Harris crossover was the "I just want a woman" crowd, presumably anyway. That portion of Biden's support thatd flip to Bernie is likely the "best name recognition crowd."
I'd expect a few drops after super Tuesday. If Biden can't get over 5th place he'll likely quit, especially if he tanks in SC. Warren came in what? 4th? in NH where she had been polling in 2nd for quite a while. She's likely to throw in the towel if that trend continues. Biden's supporters are likely to split between Pete and Bernie, name recognition versus centrists. Warren's are likely to primarily go to Pete, the "we need a smart person" crowd, and Amy, the "I just want a woman" crowd.
I think Pete's going to be the Democrat 2020 version of 2016s Ted Cruz, unpalatable centrist savior. I wonder if Klobuchar is going to be Kasich, the no chance but I'll hang around anyway candidate. Funny part is Bloomberg is likely to come in and sabotage Pete because he sure isnt going to siphon off Bernie. I guess hes Rubio.
I'd expect a few drops after super Tuesday. If Biden can't get over 5th place he'll likely quit, especially if he tanks in SC. Warren came in what? 4th? in NH where she had been polling in 2nd for quite a while. She's likely to throw in the towel if that trend continues. Biden's supporters are likely to split between Pete and Bernie, name recognition versus centrists. Warren's are likely to primarily go to Pete, the "we need a smart person" crowd, and Amy, the "I just want a woman" crowd.
I think Pete's going to be the Democrat 2020 version of 2016s Ted Cruz, unpalatable centrist savior. I wonder if Klobuchar is going to be Kasich, the no chance but I'll hang around anyway candidate. Funny part is Bloomberg is likely to come in and sabotage Pete because he sure isnt going to siphon off Bernie. I guess hes Rubio.
@mitsho If Bloomberg is a Republican (which he is) then every other Democratic moderate in the running is automatically a 7 or so by that scale. Pete probably a 6. I'm actually disfamiliar with anything Klobuchar wants to do, she's never been a serious contender for me so I haven't looked her up.
mitsho
Deity
Well yes. My question is less about Bloomberg than about what now in the primaries sounds like a huge gap - between Klobuchar and Buttigieg on one hand and Warrens and Sanders on the other - is policy-wise truly such a huge thing. Or whether the democratic camp as a whole is comparatively close to one another, but far away from Trumps extremist right ways.
Berzerker
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