2020 US Election (Part One)

[Arwon]

Then you've also got this is also coming out of polling:

This is margin of error stuff but he's pretty consistently been among the better polling candidates for the general election.

I'd suggest either:

• "wouldn't vote for a socialist" is a pretty weak and abstract prior that doesn't really survive contact with actual electoral decisions
• a lot of people think the Democratic candidate for president axiomatically cannot be "a socialist" in the sense they imagine
• a lot of people don't think Sanders is whatever they imagine a "socialist" to be regardless of the red-baiting directed at him.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I'd suggest either "wouldn't vote for a socialist" is a pretty weak and abstract prior that doesn't really survive contact with actual electoral decisions, or a lot of people don't think Sanders is whatever they imagine a "socialist" to be regardless of the red-baiting directed at him.

I'd suggest that commercials featuring that notorious "red-baiter" BERNIE SANDERS calling Bernie Sanders a socialist haven't started running...and won't until he has secured the nomination.

 

[Kyriakos]

I'd suggest that not even you want to see what will happen if commercials using Corn Pop, aka Why Why Why Why, aka hairy legs, aka stealth hugger, aka uncle Alz, aka President Maiboss show up

Not that it will matter; it is pretty obvious that without Bernie as the nomination, the dem party has no path to victory, due to alienating the youth and others who just want to vote for Bern.

 

[Arwon]

Is there any evidence at all that this would work? Running stuff about The Soviet Union in the year of our lord Twenty Twenty seems like it would have a pretty high chance of coming off as hysterical and utterly irrelevant

(Especially after spending decades convincing everyone that even mildly reformist economic policies and conventional universal healthcare is "socialism")

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Is there any evidence at all that this would work? Running stuff about The Soviet Union in the year of our lord Twenty Twenty seems like it would have a pretty high chance of coming off as hysterical and utterly irrelevant

The Soviet Union is symbolic in the US of "socialism failed." Just like Cuba, and now Venezuela. The reason 53% said they would never vote for a socialist is because they view it as a demonstrably failed economic system so electing a self declared socialist is just asking for the economy to tank. Reeducating the USian public regarding the nuances of economic theory by November is a monumental task.

 

[Arwon]

Anyway clearly the counter there is just to run Trump's various things showing love for Kim Jong-un and suggesting that even Trump loves socialism now

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Anyway clearly the counter there is just to run Trump's various things showing love for Kim Jong-un and suggesting that even Trump loves socialism now

Great suggestion, but lacks the visual credibility of the candidate himself saying "I am a socialist." I suspect it would be shrugged off.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Great suggestion, but lacks the visual credibility of the candidate himself saying "I am a socialist." I suspect it would be shrugged off.

I'm not convinced this will land as a damaging attack necessarily. Access Hollywood stunk but stink sink Trump.

 

[Arwon]

Also gotta compare it to the wide range of attacks available regarding the other front runners (unless Warren can get up), many of which also sorta neutralise angles against Trump's racism, corruption, criminality, incoherent senility, etc

 

[Estebonrober]

Has it? Even I can't directly remember a convention where there wasn't a first ballot majority, so the question of how to handle a plurality was moot. As to who is doing all the talking about "stealing" the nomination from Bernie, it mostly seems to be the same people who talk about how the last one was "stolen" from him. You remember, the one where he got 45% of the votes in the primaries so he faced someone who had a clear majority of the delegates? Notice the pattern of screaming about thefts that aren't thefts?

This reply is intentionally disingenuous. You know the crying then was about the super delegates handing it to her, while it was within the rules it did not seem fair to many voter. And yes it has never happened before.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

 

[Timsup2nothin]

This reply is intentionally disingenuous. You know the crying then was about the super delegates handing it to her, while it was within the rules it did not seem fair to many voter. And yes it has never happened before.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

She got 55% of the votes cast in the primaries. It "didn't seem fair" to some Bernie supporters, indicating that some Bernie supporters are just crybabies who are gonna cry whether they have a case or not.

 

[Sommerswerd]

TBH I suspect that further attempts to demonise Sanders as what Americans think is "a socialist" will probably just make what Americans think "socialism" is more popular rather than the reverse. At this point they've got people convinced basic healthcare, environmental protection and mildly redistributive taxation is "socialism", after all (and that all the Democrats are "socialists"). We've seen that trend unfolding for years now.

While I agree that the Republicans spending decades branding everything the Democrats say, do or advocate as "socialist" has watered down the term and desensitized people to it... and in some cases made people feel more favorably to it... I think that is only true for the younger generations... were talking Gen X and younger... the folks who caught the end of the Cold War as kids and were still in grade school when the Berlin Wall went down and the Soviet Union collapsed.

But for the people who lived through the beginning and middle of the Cold War, particularly those who experienced it as adults... "socialism" remains a full-stop, non-starter for many of them... its basically synonymous with "evil" or "enemy" or "anti-American" government. You'd have an easier time convincing Celtics fans to become Lakers fans, or Eagles fans to become Cowboys fans.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Even among younger generations there are a lot of people with minimal actual knowledge of economics that see socialism as a "proven failed" idea. Not because it actually did, just based on the PR. If I were to advocate for a genuinely socialist economic approach the first thing I would do is rebrand.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Even among younger generations there are a lot of people with minimal actual knowledge of economics that see socialism as a "proven failed" idea. Not because it actually did, just based on the PR. If I were to advocate for a genuinely socialist economic approach the first thing I would do is rebrand.

He did that, he calls it "Democratic Socialism", which is a blatant re-branding attempt.

On the radio this morning... CNN IIRC... they had a guy on explaining how Bernie's argument that his "socialist" policies are working in Sweden, Iceland, Norway, etc., is really conflating two different things. The commentators' claim was that they implemented the more traditional socialist policies Bernie is advocating in the 60s, which resulted in economic collapse. Then, in order to get their economies back on track, they engaged in substantial labor de-regulation, privatization, ie government-reduction, and instituted large tax hikes on the middle class and poor, along with substantial tax reductions for the wealthy and corporations. They used the increased tax revenue from the middle class to create a generous social safety net, including things like nationalized healthcare. One thing that caught my attention is he mentioned them implementing a 55% income tax on incomes over $60K, and IIRC a 21% national sales tax to fund their safety net.

Now I haven't researched/verified any of this yet, but as you point out that really isn't the point. What matters isn't necessarily whether this stuff is true, but rather that this is what will be said to people, and most of them are just going to believe it, because they don't have time to do otherwise.

 

[Ajidica]

(Especially after spending decades convincing everyone that even mildly reformist economic policies and conventional universal healthcare is "socialism")

On a purely anecdotal level, I have a number of friends who call themselves Socialist; but when asked what about Socialism appeals to them, they say something along the lines of supporting public education, universal health services, or environmental protections.

 

[Zardnaar]

Also gotta compare it to the wide range of attacks available regarding the other front runners (unless Warren can get up), many of which also sorta neutralise angles against Trump's racism, corruption, criminality, incoherent senility, etc

Have you seen the footage in question?

He comes across as a useful idiot. They showed him want they wanted him to see.

It's not gonna look good when Russian interference is a thing and Bernie's in Moscow praising socialism.

It's not a good look and can be run 24/7 in attack ads.

 

[Takhisis]

He did that, he calls it "Democratic Socialism", which is a blatant re-branding attempt.

On the radio this morning... CNN IIRC... they had a guy on explaining how Bernie's argument that his "socialist" policies are working in Sweden, Iceland, Norway, etc., is really conflating two different things. The commentators' claim was that they implemented the more traditional socialist policies Bernie is advocating in the 60s, which resulted in economic collapse. Then, in order to get their economies back on track, they engaged in substantial labor de-regulation, privatization, ie government-reduction, and instituted large tax hikes on the middle class and poor, along with substantial tax reductions for the wealthy and corporations. They used the increased tax revenue from the middle class to create a generous social safety net, including things like nationalized healthcare. One thing that caught my attention is he mentioned them implementing a 55% income tax on incomes over $60K, and IIRC a 21% national sales tax to fund their safety net.

Now I haven't researched/verified any of this yet, but as you point out that really isn't the point. What matters isn't necessarily whether this stuff is true, but rather that this is what will be said to people, and most of them are just going to believe it, because they don't have time to do otherwise.

There is at least the truth that Scandinavia has high taxes. Given that ‘LOWER TAXES’ is a rallying cry in the US that might be a snag, regardless of whether those high(er) taxes actually contribute towards the development of society.

There's also the fact that in the US people still peddle economic growth as THE important factor (seriously, I've had to put up with introduction to economics texts that just go on about how as long as there's growth things will work out, i.e. rebranded trickledown economics) so development and progress can be discounted as ‘furrein soshalist crap’.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Attaching "democratic" on the front of it may have been an attempt at rebranding. If so it is the lamest thing ever. You can't sell turds by making turd sandwiches, you have to establish that you are making special dietary supplements and leave out the word turd altogether, first of all. Second "democratic" is always getting hung on things that distinctly are not, like the DPRK, so it is automatically less credible. If I were trying to sell socialism I would call it "equity economics" and pitch like crazy.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Attaching "democratic" on the front of it may have been an attempt at rebranding. If so it is the lamest thing ever. You can't sell turds by making turd sandwiches, you have to establish that you are making special dietary supplements and leave out the word turd altogether, first of all. Second "democratic" is always getting hung on things that distinctly are not, like the DPRK, so it is automatically less credible. If I were trying to sell socialism I would call it "equity economics" and pitch like crazy.

My impression was that he/they were 1) trying to be edgy by keeping the controversial term "socialism", and grab a lot of media attention with their edginess 2) Trying to reclaim the term socialism from the Republicans and make it something positive; and 3) Lean into the inevitable Republican branding as socialist of anything they came up with no matter what it was, by just going ahead and "admitting" it was socialist from the get-go

 

[Ajidica]

So, what promises do you think the DNC/Democratic Establishment made to Buttigieg to get him to drop out before Super Tuesday?
My first thought was VP slot, but as he is neither a woman nor a minority, that seems unlikely.