This is the result I think we are headed for... and If the "15" is anyone besides Warren, Bernie is toast.
2020 US Election (Part One)
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So is a brokered convention the same type of borderline corrupt arrangement as down here in upsidedownland, where it's basically about a split on how many appointments to the cabinet, congressional committees, etc. each party gets?
Timsup2nothin
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It's much more direct. In the 45/40/15 split whoever has the 15 is on the ticket as the VP, almost guaranteed. And as Sommer already said, unless the 15 is Warren then they give their fifteen to Biden.
Although I'm still leaning towards that third party making the call before the convention as to who they will support, and the backroom dealing of VP, and cabinet appointments etc already done by then. Taking it all the way to the convention floor would be a figurative ( at least, but potentially literal) bloodbath.
Cloud_Strife
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If Biden is picked watch trump get reelected; Biden is a senile old man who hasn't quite yet hit the drooling phase but will be there in time
Timsup2nothin
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Agreed. I expect it to be done even before the final primaries. The states that don't vote until May and June will only have two official candidates is my guess. Maybe even late April.
aaand as if on queue...BREAKING NEWS: Bootyjudge is out.
Excellent. Also out(dated): Tim's views on socialism and how it's going to END Bernie.
innonimatu
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Desperation sets in early, the DNC is aligning behind Biden?
No. Not "excellent"... not if you want Sanders to win, anyway. Bootyjudge voters are going 100% over to Biden is my guess. Him dropping out strengthens Biden's hand which is the opposite of what Bernie needs. The Sanders campaign needs the "moderate" vote to remain fractured as long as possible, until Bernie is irreversibly in the delegate lead. Biden's landslide in SC was a worst-case-scenario, because it virtually guarantees that Biden is in it to the bitter end and it encourages the other moderates to drop out because they seem to have no hope. Sanders needed Biden to drop out, or at least appear non-viable... since that ship has sailed he now desperately needs the opposition fractured. His campaign should be sending money to Klobuchar to help her stay in.
Evidently he was more cross cutting than that:
I'm pretty sure that means Biden and Warren indivudally get 19% of his voters' second choice each, judging by the numbers for the other candidates' voters' second choices. 21/19/19/17 and 40/37 overall between left and centrist tends to suggest everyone else should benefit about equally from his withdrawal, barring whatever bandwagoning effects occur
I'm pretty sure that means Biden and Warren indivudally get 19% of his voters' second choice each, judging by the numbers for the other candidates' voters' second choices. 21/19/19/17 and 40/37 overall between left and centrist tends to suggest everyone else should benefit about equally from his withdrawal, barring whatever bandwagoning effects occur
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Spoiler second choice :
Timsup2nothin
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Sure, because come November the only people voting will be "Likely Democratic Primary Voters." Here's some polling across a more relevant sample.
47% voting for a "socialist" would have been enough to slightly outperform Trump in 2016, of course. It's basically the share of voters that Clinton got
(that is assuming this is 47% of people who can and will vote, of course. 47% of the adult population of the United States would be tens of millions more than either candidate's 60-odd million votes out of 350 million people... it's nearly as many who voted in 2016, total)
Timsup2nothin
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That wasn't "will you vote for a socialist," it was "would you ever vote for a socialist"...and the majority of Americans said NO they would not. The number who say they would never vote for a gay or lesbian is down. The number who say they would never vote for a Muslim is down. The number who say they would never vote for an African American has thankfully gotten really small. But the number who say they would never vote for a socialist remains unchanged at 53%, and if you think the GOP wouldn't LOVE to have the opposition ticket topped by a guy that 53% say they would never vote for no matter what you are grasping for straws.
Do you have the percentages for each? Also, is there a ranked choice?Spoiler second choice :
TBH I suspect that further attempts to demonise Sanders as what Americans think is "a socialist" will probably just make what Americans think "socialism" is more popular rather than the reverse. At this point they've got people convinced basic healthcare, environmental protection and mildly redistributive taxation is "socialism", after all (and that all the Democrats are "socialists"). We've seen that trend unfolding for years now.
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Timsup2nothin
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There won't be much, if any, effort to modify what USians think socialism is. There will just be a bunch of commercials with Sanders saying "I am a socialist," followed by some stock footage of him in Havana and Moscow, and finishing up with "despite all the concerns among Democrats, the economy is fine...YOU are doing fine...and now they want to turn it over to a Socialist?"
What the average USian knows about economics could be engraved on the head of a pin and still leave room for the national anthem...but they'll get the point. Or I should say "SO they'll get the point."
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