2020 US Election (Part One)

[Zardnaar]

So, what promises do you think the DNC/Democratic Establishment made to Buttigieg to get him to drop out before Super Tuesday?
My first thought was VP slot, but as he is neither a woman nor a minority, that seems unlikely.

He's gay though, can still be pushed as diversity.

I expect more a Senate or Governorship. Wouldn't be surprised to see him again in 2024 or 2028.

 

[Arwon]

So, what promises do you think the DNC/Democratic Establishment made to Buttigieg to get him to drop out before Super Tuesday?
My first thought was VP slot, but as he is neither a woman nor a minority, that seems unlikely.

Donor money likely cut off

 

[Imaus]

My impression was that he/they were 1) trying to be edgy by keeping the controversial term "socialism", and grab a lot of media attention with their edginess 2) Trying to reclaim the term socialism from the Republicans and make it something positive; and 3) Lean into the inevitable Republican branding as socialist of anything they came up with no matter what it was, by just going ahead and "admitting" it was socialist from the get-go

Attaching "democratic" on the front of it may have been an attempt at rebranding. If so it is the lamest thing ever. You can't sell turds by making turd sandwiches, you have to establish that you are making special dietary supplements and leave out the word turd altogether, first of all. Second "democratic" is always getting hung on things that distinctly are not, like the DPRK, so it is automatically less credible. If I were trying to sell socialism I would call it "equity economics" and pitch like crazy.

Democratic Socialism is not what occurred in Scandinavia, it was Social Democracy in the vein of the Nordic Model. No Socialist Party has ruled in Post-War Scandinavia. At best, they had a cluster of seats and worked in hand with Labour or SocDem parties. In Finland and Iceland, it was Centrist parties who ruled.

Democratic Socialism is not what prevailed in Western Europe, that's Social Democracy, and now, Social Liberalism. In Germany, it was as system of Ordoliberalism. In Eastern Europe, Social Democracy is as much a slur as Socialism because the Socialist and Communist Parties rebranded themselves and either stood in power in a corrupt fashion, or didn't.

Notice the lack of any '-ism'. Democratic Socialism is just the little compromise given out by Socialist or Labour parties that turned to Social Democracy and absorbed the Socialist elements, they're a dying chain.

That's why 'Democratic Socialism' isn't the be-all end-all brand, because it's just wrong. And as stated above, Social Democracy took a lot of work to be implemented and fought for, from Scandinavia to the UK to Germany, and in each case, it was more or less unique and varied, though they do share the general 'high taxes, expansive welfare nets' general platform. It doesn't even forgo high military budgets, as these nations were cranking out to counter the Soviets and Warsaw Pact.

What Bernie wants is not Socialism. What the Democratic Left wants is not Socialism. They call it Socialism because they're wrong, they got red-baited, and it's working to sink them. Bernie has tried to get away from this label but it's not working, he should had switched, at the least, after he lost and the Danish MP told him off. Preferrably he should had never taken it, just said Ordoliberalism or Social Democracy, deflected any Red-baiting thereafter.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Bernie has tried to get away from this label but it's not working, he should had switched, at the least, after he lost and the Danish MP told him off.

He shouldn't have self labeled, that's for sure. There is no more effective attack ad than the opponent plainly saying something that hurts their chances. There is no counter. You can't call it a lie, you can't claim there is a misunderstanding, you just have to deal with the fallout.

 

[amadeus]

So what happened with Powerpoint Pete? Did Biden promise him the VP slot or did Mike Bloomberg send him pallets of cash?

Enquiring minds want to know!

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So what happened with Powerpoint Pete? Did Biden promise him the VP slot or did Mike Bloomberg send him pallets of cash?

Enquiring minds want to know!

Neither. He got what he came for. He went from "that midwest mayor" to nationally recognized name with a presidential campaign to his credit. If he wants to run for senate, or governor, he will have easy access to donors and immediate media attention. He will also be invited to speak at all sorts of conferences that Democrats consider important so he can expand his name recognition. He is at least ten times more likely to be president someday than anyone else his age.

 

[Rashiminos]

Is there any evidence at all that this would work? Running stuff about The Soviet Union in the year of our lord Twenty Twenty seems like it would have a pretty high chance of coming off as hysterical and utterly irrelevant

(Especially after spending decades convincing everyone that even mildly reformist economic policies and conventional universal healthcare is "socialism")

Depends on how many people still think McCarthy was wrong.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Depends on how many people still think McCarthy was wrong.

McCarthy was a nut that saw spies in his breakfast cereal. No one is looking at Sanders and saying "socialist, huh, must be a spy." The problem with being branded as a socialist in USian politics is that socialism is very widely defined as "that failed economic theory." If you want to get elected in a nation that is known for voters putting their wallets ahead of everything there is probably nothing harder to overcome.

 

[amadeus]

He is at least ten times more likely to be president someday than anyone else his age.

(1.) he’s 10 times more likely than someone my age to be elected.
(2.) people think Buttigieg will be elected someday.

Conclusion: I’m already 10% of the way to being President of the United States. Swish!

 

[Timsup2nothin]

(1.) he’s 10 times more likely than someone my age to be elected.
(2.) people think Buttigieg will be elected someday.

Conclusion: I’m already 10% of the way to being President of the United States. Swish!

Notice I said "than anyone else" not "than everyone else." There are other people his age with successful political careers. Mayors, state assembly representatives, political operatives; he's 10X ahead of them. They are 10X ahead of other people who are in careers outside of politics, who in turn are 10X ahead of people who haven't "found their niche," who in turn are 10X ahead of people who have made career choices that pretty much make them unelectable.

And people who "think Buttigieg will be elected someday" are people who I would very much like to make bets with. There's a whole lot of water that needs to get under that bridge before his chances could be called really good.

I'd go even money that he gets at least a term in congress though.

 

[cardgame]

He's already been elected

to mayor

 

[Rashiminos]

McCarthy was a nut that saw spies in his breakfast cereal. No one is looking at Sanders and saying "socialist, huh, must be a spy." The problem with being branded as a socialist in USian politics is that socialism is very widely defined as "that failed economic theory." If you want to get elected in a nation that is known for voters putting their wallets ahead of everything there is probably nothing harder to overcome.

Then you should like your chances.

 

[amadeus]

Notice I said "than anyone else" not "than everyone else." There are other people his age with successful political careers. Mayors, state assembly representatives, political operatives; he's 10X ahead of them. They are 10X ahead of other people who are in careers outside of politics, who in turn are 10X ahead of people who haven't "found their niche," who in turn are 10X ahead of people who have made career choices that pretty much make them unelectable.

I was being facetious. Pardon me if you though I had any shot at electability (I don’t.)

Anyway, doing the math, I’m probably at the bad end of that spectrum as I live (soon to be permanent resident?) in a foreign country, effectively disqualifying me for office.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Then you should like your chances.

My chances to what?

 

[adcarrymaokai]

Today I did what I thought I would never do—I went out canvassing, knocking on doors for Bernard Sanders.

The organizer's home was full with people, most of them young white men. There were a few black women, which was really surprising, considering the black population of San Francisco is very small, and my part of the city is, like, 99% white and Asian. There was also an old white woman, excited to canvass for Bernie.

I was very nervous, but most people weren't actually home, and the ones who were either declined to engaged or told me they are already voting for Bernie. Pretty much everyone who said they are voted told me they were voting for Bernie, actually. Some of these people were boomers. I guess, if you are a boomer living in SF, you ARE going to vote for Bernie, but it was also another eye-opening moment for me. I guess, all these older folks also care about healthcare and climate change, and this gives me hope.

I canvassed for over 2 hours and knocked on more than 60 doors. I was really tired, and on my way home picked up a Bernie sign. As I was walking home with this sign, an elderly Asian man smiled at me and gave me a thumbs up. Wow. Everyone was so positive and nice. I heard from another canvasser that one household told me they already voted for Bloomberg because Bernie is too far left, but other than that, I didn't hear any bad stories.

Today was a good day, and I am happy I did this. Regardless of what happens, I got to meet people in my neighborhood, and I realized it is more diverse than I actually thought, and I realized that Bernie supporters come from all walks of life. I think one thing is reading about it online, and another is actually witnessing it in real life. I am very happy about today, and I feel like I am fulfilling my civic duty and engaging in a healthy democratic process.

I guess it's good to get off the Internet for once and actually talk to people.

 

[Hrothbern]

He's already been elected

to mayor

yes he was mayor for a decade or so
the grumpy authoritarian type
And as mayor you do not have a central bank, you cannot print money

What I understand from him from that period is that he was in style much like Social Democrats in Europe just after WW2
Including: "you can spend a Dollar only once"

Much of the power and qualities in governing of the North Western European Social Democrats was build up and learned in local government and associations for housing etc. in the period 1900-1950.
When the crisis hit, followed by WW2, the traditional elite proven as failed, the Socialists moved to Social Democrats with their experience, organisations, builded up trust... their machinery in place... and could start executing realistic policies.

IDK where Sanders is now, but it is often said that he sticks and repeats all the time the same
IDK in how far he sees much of his young supporters also as people with good values & intentions, sitting on a bench but never with any purifying experience of actually governing, of actually rowing with the oars you have.

I think many of his more radical supporters could be surprised if Sanders, as POTUS, really sticks to his mentality as mayor.

 

[Zardnaar]

Today I did what I thought I would never do—I went out canvassing, knocking on doors for Bernard Sanders.

The organizer's home was full with people, most of them young white men. There were a few black women, which was really surprising, considering the black population of San Francisco is very small, and my part of the city is, like, 99% white and Asian. There was also an old white woman, excited to canvass for Bernie.

I was very nervous, but most people weren't actually home, and the ones who were either declined to engaged or told me they are already voting for Bernie. Pretty much everyone who said they are voted told me they were voting for Bernie, actually. Some of these people were boomers. I guess, if you are a boomer living in SF, you ARE going to vote for Bernie, but it was also another eye-opening moment for me. I guess, all these older folks also care about healthcare and climate change, and this gives me hope.

I canvassed for over 2 hours and knocked on more than 60 doors. I was really tired, and on my way home picked up a Bernie sign. As I was walking home with this sign, an elderly Asian man smiled at me and gave me a thumbs up. Wow. Everyone was so positive and nice. I heard from another canvasser that one household told me they already voted for Bloomberg because Bernie is too far left, but other than that, I didn't hear any bad stories.

Today was a good day, and I am happy I did this. Regardless of what happens, I got to meet people in my neighborhood, and I realized it is more diverse than I actually thought, and I realized that Bernie supporters come from all walks of life. I think one thing is reading about it online, and another is actually witnessing it in real life. I am very happy about today, and I feel like I am fulfilling my civic duty and engaging in a healthy democratic process.

I guess it's good to get off the Internet for once and actually talk to people.

That's awesome, at least your doing something. One would kinda expect Bernie to do well in San Francisco.

 

[Camikaze]

Buttigieg dropping out has really sky-rocketed the 'no one gets a majority' chances on the 538 model. Although some of his support goes to Sanders, the majority of it does not, which pushes some of the other candidates above the 15% threshold in more states and hinders Bernie's chances of taking majority shares of delegates in big states - which is what he needs to get a majority.

Biden is now the youngest man in the race.

 

[Zardnaar]

Youth vote for Biden!!!!!!!

 

[cardgame]

yes he was mayor for a decade or so
the grumpy authoritarian type
And as mayor you do not have a central bank, you cannot print money
I think many of his more radical supporters could be surprised if Sanders, as POTUS, really sticks to his mentality as mayor.

what? I was talking about Mayor Peter.