2020 US Election (Part One)

[caketastydelish]

I am deliberately not paying close attention to any of the running mates right now. This is because the general election won't be held until November of next year (over one year from now) meaning if I pay close attention starting now, by that time 2020 I will be sick and tired of all of them. I don't want to be filled up on appetizers so much that I can't eat any more by the time the main course is served.

 

[Hrothbern]

When there would be a Democrat as new President...
how big is the likelyhood that this would cause a necessary update of the big global institutions focussing towards a Green economy ?

Here a plea of John McDonnell (ShadowChancellor UK):

Global financial bodies not fit for purpose, John McDonnell says
IMF, WTO and World Bank not doing enough to fight climate crisis, shadow chancellor says.
Fighting the climate crisis should be put at the heart of decisions made by the International Monetary Fund and other global institutions as part of a fundamental shake-up designed to reduce the influence of corporate power, John McDonnell has said.
The shadow chancellor used a Guardian interview to say that Donald Trump’s hostility to international bodies was the opportunity to recast organisations set up after the second world war for the modern age.
McDonnell warned that the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation were no longer fit for purpose given the scale of the climate emergency, while saying that he was open to the possibility of creating a new global body with tough new powers for enforcing climate commitments.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...not-fit-purpose-climate-crisis-john-mcdonnell

 

[cardgame]

When there would be a Democrat as new President...
how big is the likelyhood that this would cause a necessary update of the big global institutions focussing towards a Green economy ?

zero with Biden

If he's the nom I think I'm voting third party

Nothing says "elect me" like "nothing would fundamentally change"

 

[Ajidica]

This is interesting, especially as Politico seems to be used mainly by the various party establishments to float ideas. Is the Democratic establishment seeing sharks circling for Biden, or is a pro-Warren group trying to set her up as a centrist (which in any sane political environment she is, possibly left of center) to better differentiate herself from Sanders while pulling support for Biden?

Warren emerges as potential compromise nominee

Centrists who once said the senator would lead the party to ruin are coming around to her as an alternative to Bernie Sanders.
CHARLESTON, S.C. — There was a time not so long ago when leading Democrats warned that Elizabeth Warren’s “fantasy-based blue-state populism” risked leading the party to ruin.

But in a revealing tell of how far her campaign has come since its early February launch, some unlikely voices in the center of the party are growing more comfortable with the idea of Warren as the nominee.

It’s a sign of how the ideological lanes of the 2020 primary have blurred and overlapped and of the steady progress Warren is making as a candidate. But it’s also a statement on Bernie Sanders, Warren’s top rival for progressive votes. Sanders continues to face significant resistance from within the party — and nowhere more so than among the moderates and establishment players who blanch at his talk of democratic socialism.

Warren, on the other hand, is gaining traction among those who once rejected her muscular vision of liberalism. She’s drawn notice for her wide-ranging “I have a plan for that” policy playbook, which has just enough growth-and-opportunity, center-left measures to earn her a serious look from former detractors. The Massachusetts senator may be out of sync with party centrists, but she’s drawn at least one sharp line with Sanders that is resonating with prominent moderate voices as she surges into the top tier in national and early state polls.

“One is a Democratic capitalist narrative,” said Matt Bennett, a co-founder of Third Way, a centrist think tank that convened a conference of party insiders in South Carolina this week designed to warn about the risks of a nominee whose views are out of the political mainstream. “The other is a socialist narrative.”
-continued in article-

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/19/democratic-establishment-elizabeth-warren-1369874

 

[Phrossack]

zero with Biden

If he's the nom I think I'm voting third party

Nothing says "elect me" like "nothing would fundamentally change"

If Biden wins the nomination, we'll be voting on whether to break our legs or break all our limbs and get cancer too.

I hate the idea of broken legs, but since one of these two options would be guaranteed to happen in this scenario, I know which one I'd pick.

 

[sophie]

If Biden wins the nomination, we'll be voting on whether to break our legs or break all our limbs and get cancer too.

I hate the idea of broken legs, but since one of these two options would be guaranteed to happen in this scenario, I know which one I'd pick.

Ugh. This perfectly encapsulates my thoughts on Biden in one elegant quote:

"By the way...we talk about this mostly in terms of "Black Lives Matter"...Black Lives really do matter, but the problem is Institutional Racism in America [**** eating grin] That's the overarching problem that still exists. And we should be talking about it and looking at...housing, and jobs, and so on, and so...but having said that...you take a look at the Crime Bill, of the money in the Crime Bill, the vast majority went to reducing sentences, diverting people from going to jail for drug offences...I came up with...drug courts, providing for...boot camps instead of sending people to prison, so you didn't really learn, y'know, what got you there in the first place, put 100,000 cops on the street...

Like, he goes on to talk a whole load of bullfeathers after this particular piece, e.g. that Baltimore's Police force is SO GOOD now because of the Crime Bill (lol). But that aside, drawing a distinction between "institutional racism" and his Crime Bill is just hilarious on the face of it. The Crime Bill IS THE FRIGGIN INSTITUTION you dingdong. The dramatic advance of the prison industrial complex as enabled by the Crime Bill is an absolutely essential component of the vicious cycle of poverty->crime->generational poverty that IS, generally speaking, what BLM means when they talk about institutional racism. Even ignoring the structural analysis of the root causes of racism and institutional poverty and oppression which form the bulwark of BLM's analysis, BLM grew out of a response to the increasingly militarized police institution as enabled by the Crime Bill, and, notably, to the horrors and excesses of the Baltimore Police force particularly following the murder-execution of Freddie Gray particularly. Like I recognize that Biden is a lifelong politician and has a bevy of advisers and strategists on hand, so this 100% isn't by accident (because, c'mon, justifying THE RACIST INSTITUTION by citing the "success" of the Baltimore Police force?), but it's so depressing the way that the rhetoric of anti-racist organizations is appropriated by literal racists to win over idiot Boomers dreaming of a Trumpist message except, y'know, the racist **** is subtext rather than explicit text.)

Ugh, this ******* is winning the primary, isn't he? I need another beer.

 

[Broken_Erika]

Then Biden wins the primary and runs on a platform of "Business as Usual" with pro-business policies and keeping the tax cuts for the rich and corporations in order to "Encourage the Economy".

 

[cardgame]

If Biden wins the nomination, we'll be voting on whether to break our legs or break all our limbs and get cancer too.

I hate the idea of broken legs, but since one of these two options would be guaranteed to happen in this scenario, I know which one I'd pick.

How often does a same-party polit challenge an incumbent president for re-election? has it even happened since the 19th century? If we're stuck with Biden we are simultaneously losing out on 2024 and beyond.

 

[Phrossack]

Ugh. This perfectly encapsulates my thoughts on Biden in one elegant quote:



Like, he goes on to talk a whole load of bullfeathers after this particular piece, e.g. that Baltimore's Police force is SO GOOD now because of the Crime Bill (lol). But that aside, drawing a distinction between "institutional racism" and his Crime Bill is just hilarious on the face of it. The Crime Bill IS THE FRIGGIN INSTITUTION you dingdong. The dramatic advance of the prison industrial complex as enabled by the Crime Bill is an absolutely essential component of the vicious cycle of poverty->crime->generational poverty that IS, generally speaking, what BLM means when they talk about institutional racism. Even ignoring the structural analysis of the root causes of racism and institutional poverty and oppression which form the bulwark of BLM's analysis, BLM grew out of a response to the increasingly militarized police institution as enabled by the Crime Bill, and, notably, to the horrors and excesses of the Baltimore Police force particularly following the murder-execution of Freddie Gray particularly. Like I recognize that Biden is a lifelong politician and has a bevy of advisers and strategists on hand, so this 100% isn't by accident (because, c'mon, justifying THE RACIST INSTITUTION by citing the "success" of the Baltimore Police force?), but it's so depressing the way that the rhetoric of anti-racist organizations is appropriated by literal racists to win over idiot Boomers dreaming of a Trumpist message except, y'know, the racist **** is subtext rather than explicit text.)

Ugh, this ******* is winning the primary, isn't he? I need another beer.

How often does a same-party polit challenge an incumbent president for re-election? has it even happened since the 19th century? If we're stuck with Biden we are simultaneously losing out on 2024 and beyond.

If Biden wins the primary and goes on to win in 2020, we get a crappy, business-as-usual president who prevents much progress.

If Trump wins in 2020, we will be all but guaranteed to enjoy:

- An overwhelmingly far-right SCOTUS for the next thirty to forty years, which will rubber-stamp the most extreme policies this country has seen in decades
- Aggressive attacks on any and all means of slowing the frantic pace of climate change
- The elimination of all abortion rights in the country
- the complete and permanent normalization of nepotism and extreme corruption in the appointment process for all federal posts (De Vos for Education? Professional polluters for EPA? Just the beginning)
- even more rampant gerrymandering and voter suppression
- and perhaps most importantly, Trump has made it absolutely crystal clear that he sees himself as a president for life and will reject any and all attempts to remove him from power, by violence if necessary.

A Biden presidency will cost America years of potential progress. A second Trump win will PERMANENTLY end any chances of even remotely free and fair elections and guarantee an age of unlimited corruption, pollution, injustice, white supremacy, increased misogyny, and even more climate catastrophe while forever normalizing the insane personality cult that is Trumpism.

So don't lecture me on how Biden isn't good enough.I know that. I know he's not my primary choice, and we have to do what we must to put Warren or Sanders or almost any other candidate ahead of him. But at least I also know a second Trump win is the death knell of any hope of ever fixing America's problems. A permanently and massively rigged electoral system beyond even what we suffer now, a judiciary almost completely made up of extremist lifelong Trump appointees, an increasingly fanatical and violent cult, and an increasingly demoralized non-Republican voter base will see to that.

 

[Berzerker]

Trump has a better track record than Biden and thats partly why he squeezed by Clinton. Sanders has been hitting Biden on his trade votes (like Nafta) so while I think Biden can compete with Trump in the rust belt he's not without that weakness. Trump will run against him as the heroic populist trying to stem the bleeding of jobs Biden caused. But I'm biased, I dont like Biden. The crime bills he pushed, the war in Iraq, he's Hillary. Please dont nominate him, this may be the election a 'progressive' can win the WH. I'd like to see a crusader against corruption be the nominee, so far Gabbard and Warren stand out.

 

[Ironsided]

So don't lecture me on how Biden isn't good enough.I know that. I know he's not my primary choice, and we have to do what we must to put Warren or Sanders or almost any other candidate ahead of him. But at least I also know a second Trump win is the death knell of any hope of ever fixing America's problems. A permanently and massively rigged electoral system beyond even what we suffer now, a judiciary almost completely made up of extremist lifelong Trump appointees, an increasingly fanatical and violent cult, and an increasingly demoralized non-Republican voter base will see to that.

But you have the right to lecture, do you? Well here’s my lecture: You already have all those things you are so afraid of, open your eyes dude. If you want change and actually mean it you cannot open up for a new establishment candidate like Biden. Give them an inch and they will rip your arm off. You have to refuse, march, strike, protest to make sure you get nothing like Biden. Early and all through this election cycle. You have to be crystal clear that you will not tolerate another diet republican. Sometimes enough have to be enough. If you support Bernie and a new better course of building a society make sure you do not screw yourself again. Make strong stands that you will never vote for Biden EVER. If come election day is between Biden and Trump anyway – you vote and vote your conscience. But until that day you don’t give an inch.

Found it. Here is a really thought-provoking Q&A with Chomsky about disillusions with politics in America. It’s ten years old and still as topical as anything today. To people adding two and two together it’s also not a bad analysis of why we even have to endure Trump today.

 

[Lexicus]

- and perhaps most importantly, Trump has made it absolutely crystal clear that he sees himself as a president for life and will reject any and all attempts to remove him from power, by violence if necessary.

So don't lecture me on how Biden isn't good enough.I know that. I know he's not my primary choice, and we have to do what we must to put Warren or Sanders or almost any other candidate ahead of him. But at least I also know a second Trump win is the death knell of any hope of ever fixing America's problems. A permanently and massively rigged electoral system beyond even what we suffer now, a judiciary almost completely made up of extremist lifelong Trump appointees, an increasingly fanatical and violent cult, and an increasingly demoralized non-Republican voter base will see to that.

Again...disconnect. If Trump is going to remain in power by violence you're better served by organizing a militia in your community than by voting for Joe Biden.

 

[Mouthwash]

If Biden wins the primary and goes on to win in 2020, we get a crappy, business-as-usual president who prevents much progress.

If Trump wins in 2020, we will be all but guaranteed to enjoy:

- An overwhelmingly far-right SCOTUS for the next thirty to forty years, which will rubber-stamp the most extreme policies this country has seen in decades
- Aggressive attacks on any and all means of slowing the frantic pace of climate change
- The elimination of all abortion rights in the country
- the complete and permanent normalization of nepotism and extreme corruption in the appointment process for all federal posts (De Vos for Education? Professional polluters for EPA? Just the beginning)
- even more rampant gerrymandering and voter suppression
- and perhaps most importantly, Trump has made it absolutely crystal clear that he sees himself as a president for life and will reject any and all attempts to remove him from power, by violence if necessary.

I'm all on board with the SCOTUS and abortion parts, and am okay with the voter suppression and nepotism (as I don't see American democracy/institutions as legitimate or relevant anymore).

A Biden presidency will cost America years of potential progress. A second Trump win will PERMANENTLY end any chances of even remotely free and fair elections and guarantee an age of unlimited corruption, pollution, injustice, white supremacy, increased misogyny, and even more climate catastrophe while forever normalizing the insane personality cult that is Trumpism.

So don't lecture me on how Biden isn't good enough.I know that. I know he's not my primary choice, and we have to do what we must to put Warren or Sanders or almost any other candidate ahead of him. But at least I also know a second Trump win is the death knell of any hope of ever fixing America's problems. A permanently and massively rigged electoral system beyond even what we suffer now, a judiciary almost completely made up of extremist lifelong Trump appointees, an increasingly fanatical and violent cult, and an increasingly demoralized non-Republican voter base will see to that.

When he wins we're going to see an outpouring of liberal misery unlike anything in living memory, and every bit of it will be a for me.

 

[Arakhor]

Moderator Action: Let's tune down the partisan rhetoric please. I don't want to have pass out infractions when the thread temperature rises dramatically.

 

[Phrossack]

But you have the right to lecture, do you? Well here’s my lecture: You already have all those things you are so afraid of, open your eyes dude. If you want change and actually mean it you cannot open up for a new establishment candidate like Biden. Give them an inch and they will rip your arm off. You have to refuse, march, strike, protest to make sure you get nothing like Biden. Early and all through this election cycle. You have to be crystal clear that you will not tolerate another diet republican. Sometimes enough have to be enough. If you support Bernie and a new better course of building a society make sure you do not screw yourself again. Make strong stands that you will never vote for Biden EVER. If come election day is between Biden and Trump anyway – you vote and vote your conscience. But until that day you don’t give an inch.

Found it. Here is a really thought-provoking Q&A with Chomsky about disillusions with politics in America. It’s ten years old and still as topical as anything today. To people adding two and two together it’s also not a bad analysis of why we even have to endure Trump today.

Not going to watch your video. And my eyes are open just fine, "dude." Don't patronize me.

"Give them an inch and they will rip your arm off?" Give Trump an inch and he will rip off all your limbs, remove your eyes, do the same to everyone you know, and prevent anyone from fixing the country ever again through even more massive gerrymandering and voter suppression effort aided by an overwhelmingly and permanently far-right, authoritarian, white supremacist judiciary so that you can't hold out any hope for 2024. Biden will not deliberately disenfranchise his own voter base and push for a dictatorship.

Again...disconnect. If Trump is going to remain in power by violence you're better served by organizing a militia in your community than by voting for Joe Biden.

If the Dems win in 2020, Trump my start a violent uprising, but would have much less support from the courts, the police, the populace, and the military. He would lose.

If he wins in 2020, he will further rig the judiciary to the point that nearly all federal judges and the SCOTUS will rubber-stamp his demands to extend his term even beyond 2024. He will make his desire for lifelong office and unlimited powers law, and then, even if the Democratic remnants somehow beat the rigged system in 2024, if there is another election, he will reject its outcome and have the backing of the courts and military.

So no, if he wins in 2020, you can't just sigh, say, "Aw shucks, we'll get him next time," and carry on hoping for 2024. Trump will demand unrestrained authoritarianism and a rigged judiciary and electoral process in a way no Democrat ever would.

 

[Lexicus]

If the Dems win in 2020, Trump my start a violent uprising, but would have much less support from the courts, the police, the populace, and the military. He would lose.

I don't agree with this at all. I keep pointing out the inconsistency here, which ironically is sort of similar to the basic incoherence of Biden's message. You both want to paint Trump as an existential threat, but argue he can be completely exorcised if we just beat him in the 2020 election.

I'm skeptical. If he's already thrown out the rulebook there will be no winning the 2020 election. The Republicans will just cheat and get away with it the way they did in 2000. In any even Trump won't "start a violent uprising," he'll use the (cultural) authority of the Presidency to declare the election results compromised or invalid and enough of the Republicans will believe it (or pretend to) that we'll be in the same situation you paint out in your Trump-wins-2020 scenario.

 

[Phrossack]

I don't agree with this at all. I keep pointing out the inconsistency here, which ironically is sort of similar to the basic incoherence of Biden's message. You both want to paint Trump as an existential threat, but argue he can be completely exorcised if we just beat him in the 2020 election.

I'm skeptical. If he's already thrown out the rulebook there will be no winning the 2020 election. The Republicans will just cheat and get away with it the way they did in 2000. In any even Trump won't "start a violent uprising," he'll use the (cultural) authority of the Presidency to declare the election results compromised or invalid and enough of the Republicans will believe it (or pretend to) that we'll be in the same situation you paint out in your Trump-wins-2020 scenario.

Trump IS an existential threat, but he can't be excised with one election, which is why I never said that. The roots of Republican extremism go deep, and will take time to eliminate. Trump has not yet completely taken over the judiciary or SCOTUS. Let him win in 2020, and he certainly will have. It is still possible to remove him from power, but by 2024 it would be impossible to do so. I don't agree with you that we can just get back to it in 2024 with any chance of success.

 

[Socrates99]

Trump's a senior citizen that never matured past his teenage years. His aides and foreign rulers play him like a fiddle. I think the threat he poses is grossly overblown. Right now Republicans are caught between hitching their horses to the Trump post or risk losing their voter base. Some are already dissenting though. Justin Amash was applauded when he called for impeachment in a deep red district. Trump can't get away with anything so overt as running for a third term or whatever the TDS people are worried about.

The SCOTUS stuff? So we elect the bank and corporation friendly Biden in, what do we gain? His picks might sway left on some civil issues but they're just as likely to go right on economic issues. Not worth it.

 

[Lexicus]

I don't agree with you that we can just get back to it in 2024 with any chance of success.

That's not what I think, what I've been trying to say is that I think we may already be irreversibly screwed.

 

[Phrossack]

Trump's a senior citizen that never matured past his teenage years. His aides and foreign rulers play him like a fiddle. I think the threat he poses is grossly overblown. Right now Republicans are caught between hitching their horses to the Trump post or risk losing their voter base. Some are already dissenting though. Justin Amash was applauded when he called for impeachment in a deep red district. Trump can't get away with anything so overt as running for a third term or whatever the TDS people are worried about.

The SCOTUS stuff? So we elect the bank and corporation friendly Biden in, what do we gain? His picks might sway left on some civil issues but they're just as likely to go right on economic issues. Not worth it.

In 2015, many Republicans fiercely opposed him and it was unheard of for any president to do half the things he has. By now it's been normalized and he has completely subdued the entire GOP save the lone and irrelevant Amash. He's normalizing and institutionalizing abuse of power, and this will get worse with time.

It is not possible for Biden to nominate worse candidates than Trump has, or will. There is no point in deliberately letting Trump win.

That's not what I think, what I've been trying to say is that I think we may already be irreversibly screwed.

Well, you obviously haven't given up, so wouldn't you rather at least try to slow down authoritarianism?