China Attacks Scenarios

[CavLancer]

Two possibilities seem likely to me. An intended and unintended start to hostilities.

Unintended...

A while back a Chinese frigate lit up a Japanese destroyer with targeting radar. If this had been interpreted as a step to war by the Japanese captain then he would have tried to fire first and survive. The result would be a shooting war. From this point the progress of the war would not be any different than an intended start.

Intended...

The Chinese begin a war to acquire a couple unoccupied rocks the Japanese own and kick the Philippines out of the Philippine EEZ.

The result of either beginnings I see as the following:

After a brief success because of surprise the US and Japan defeat China at sea. Politically the Chinese government needs a win so they move a powerful army down through North Korea and attack the South along with the NKs. The allies see this coming and start moving forces to SK. Airforce gets there first. Huge air battles over Korea, and the SK SAMs shoot down a lot of Chinese aircraft. The allies end up in control the skies and start bombing the Chinese army moving south.

At no point does China use nukes. They have less than 200 to the US thousands.

India sees its chance and begins moving forces north, planning to get even for '62 and on. Take back a few mountains.

Chinese/NK human wave attacks on SK get nowhere, but Seoul is heavily damaged by artillery. Eventually the Chinese retreat north out of supply, bombed continuously, a mob.

The government of China falls, the country splits into regions controlled by strongman politics.

Russia attacks and takes Manchuria.

That's it, lets hear your scn.

 

[Glassfan]

I pray to God it never comes to this.

 

[strijder20]

I pray to God it never comes to this.

Yes, this would be a disaster and the Chinese government isn't nearly stupid enough to engage in grotesque reveries like this.

 

[cav scout]

The part about a Chinese army moving through NK to attack SK isn't really plausible.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Today, it is a matter of tiny insignificant land off their coast which has been disputed for over a century.

Tomorrow, you will be speaking Mandarin. I can hear the dominoes falling from here.

 

[Dachs]

The part about a Chinese army moving through NK to attack SK isn't really plausible.

...and the other parts were?

 

[cav scout]

...and the other parts were?

The part about kicking the Philippines out of their own EEZ is legit. This is an ongoing process that doesn't require any shooting. The Philippines have been slowly ceding islands/atolls to de facto Chinese control because they can't afford to keep any meaningful presence in the area. I could also see a few incidents/skirmishes over the Senkaku's (which will stay under Japanese control) like when our P-3 got rammed. Wouldn't escalate to a full-scale shooting war but tensions would be increased.

 

[Takhisis]

Why would the Chinese attack scenarios?

 

[Borachio]

Because Scenarios are a kind of chewy breakfast cereal and the Chinese are either allergic or addicted to them?

Either way, I think they're entirely justified.

 

[strijder20]

Why would the Chinese attack scenarios?

 

[squadbroken]

hey guys let me tell you about my nonsensical jingoistic fantasies

 

[Formaldehyde]

I could also see a few incidents/skirmishes over the Senkaku's (which will stay under Japanese control) like when our P-3 got rammed.

So your contention is that the Chinese fighter deliberately struck the P3 Orion, and which the pilot unsurprisingly died as a direct result?

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

Why would the Chinese attack scenarios?

Because they are bourgeois-nationalist-Lian-Biaoist-revisionists.

hey guys let me tell you about my nonsensical jingoistic fantasies

Ermagerd. I need this smiley.

 

[Lord of Elves]

Yellow Peril Part Two Electric Boogaloo

 

[BvBPL]

For a moment, I thought this topic was "China Attacks Sedrais."

I was wondering how I could help aid the war on the author of Me Talk Pretty One Day.

Then I was concerned that China might be attacking both David and Amy.

Then I realized that Amy would be an acceptable loss if a coalition of the willing could take down David.

 

[Glassfan]

So your contention is that the Chinese fighter deliberately struck the P3 Orion, and which the pilot unsurprisingly died as a direct result?

It's always been contentious. But the Chinese fighters intercepted the Orion, and may have maneuvered too agressively. Not a deliberate strike, but an unfortunate accident.

Spoiler :

Cause of collision
Both the cause of the collision and the assignment of blame were disputed. The American government claimed that the Chinese jet bumped the wing of the larger, slower, and less maneuverable EP-3. After returning to U.S. soil, the pilot of the EP-3, Lt. Shane Osborn, was allowed to make a brief statement in which he said that the EP-3 was on autopilot and in straight-and-level flight at the time of the collision. He stated that he was just "guarding the autopilot" in his interview with Frontline.[17] The U.S. released video footage from previous missions which revealed that American reconnaissance crews had previously been intercepted by Lt. Cdr. Wang. During one such incident, he was shown approaching so close that his e-mail address could be read from a sign that he was holding up. Based on the account of Wang Wei's wingman, the Chinese government stated that the American plane "veered at a wide angle towards the Chinese", in the process ramming the J-8. This claim cannot be verified since the Chinese government refuses to release data from the black boxes of either plane, both of which are in its possession.

Following the collision, China's monitoring of reconnaissance flights became less aggressive. As of 2011, flights of US spy planes near the Chinese coastline continue as before the incident.

 

[Gucumatz]

I like reading these kind of scenarios, even if they are implausible largely. Regardless if anything did erupt beyond a small scale skirmish, the Chinese I feel are self aware enough to realize what the American military is capable of for one thing - and second the economic consequences this would have in China once a possible conflict was settled. Meaning there would be only one logical scenario - ease tensions immediately after this theoretical skirmish/whateverhappened. Diplomacy, not war, would be the scenario

 

[FriendlyFire]

I pray to God it never comes to this.

Yes, the Chinese one antiquated aircraft carrier that cannot be put out to blue water, with no fleet aircraft. Would allow China to even think of challenging US hegemony of the worlds ocean.

Unless Republicans elect another G.W.Bush, then the US would probably retaliate by invading Iran and Vietnam. Flush billions of dollars and lives in what I can only imagine is shooting themselves in the foot repeatably while the entire world faceplams itself.

 

[BvBPL]

Examination of naval strength, US v China.

 

[Gucumatz]

Examination of naval strength, US v China.

Quite a bit different from a single Ukrainian Aircraft carrier. Regardless, still no match for the moment for an American fleet