CavLancer
This aint fertilizer
Two possibilities seem likely to me. An intended and unintended start to hostilities.
Unintended...
A while back a Chinese frigate lit up a Japanese destroyer with targeting radar. If this had been interpreted as a step to war by the Japanese captain then he would have tried to fire first and survive. The result would be a shooting war. From this point the progress of the war would not be any different than an intended start.
Intended...
The Chinese begin a war to acquire a couple unoccupied rocks the Japanese own and kick the Philippines out of the Philippine EEZ.
The result of either beginnings I see as the following:
After a brief success because of surprise the US and Japan defeat China at sea. Politically the Chinese government needs a win so they move a powerful army down through North Korea and attack the South along with the NKs. The allies see this coming and start moving forces to SK. Airforce gets there first. Huge air battles over Korea, and the SK SAMs shoot down a lot of Chinese aircraft. The allies end up in control the skies and start bombing the Chinese army moving south.
At no point does China use nukes. They have less than 200 to the US thousands.
India sees its chance and begins moving forces north, planning to get even for '62 and on. Take back a few mountains.
Chinese/NK human wave attacks on SK get nowhere, but Seoul is heavily damaged by artillery. Eventually the Chinese retreat north out of supply, bombed continuously, a mob.
The government of China falls, the country splits into regions controlled by strongman politics.
Russia attacks and takes Manchuria.
That's it, lets hear your scn.
Unintended...
A while back a Chinese frigate lit up a Japanese destroyer with targeting radar. If this had been interpreted as a step to war by the Japanese captain then he would have tried to fire first and survive. The result would be a shooting war. From this point the progress of the war would not be any different than an intended start.
Intended...
The Chinese begin a war to acquire a couple unoccupied rocks the Japanese own and kick the Philippines out of the Philippine EEZ.
The result of either beginnings I see as the following:
After a brief success because of surprise the US and Japan defeat China at sea. Politically the Chinese government needs a win so they move a powerful army down through North Korea and attack the South along with the NKs. The allies see this coming and start moving forces to SK. Airforce gets there first. Huge air battles over Korea, and the SK SAMs shoot down a lot of Chinese aircraft. The allies end up in control the skies and start bombing the Chinese army moving south.
At no point does China use nukes. They have less than 200 to the US thousands.
India sees its chance and begins moving forces north, planning to get even for '62 and on. Take back a few mountains.
Chinese/NK human wave attacks on SK get nowhere, but Seoul is heavily damaged by artillery. Eventually the Chinese retreat north out of supply, bombed continuously, a mob.
The government of China falls, the country splits into regions controlled by strongman politics.
Russia attacks and takes Manchuria.
That's it, lets hear your scn.