[RD] Clinton vs. Trump - USA Presidential race.

[CaptainF]

Every aspect of the US electoral system is geared towards helping white people maintain disproportionate influence and vote share. Workday voting, complex and changing registration rules, roll purges, ID rules, felony disenfranchisement, sparse and overcrowded polling places. Has a massive influence in any close contest.

Yup. It's kind of a joke.

 

[Light Cleric]

FWIW, NYT now has Trump at 78% to win. They have Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania all very slightly leaning to Trump. These are highly correlated states, so you'd kinda expect that if one fell, the others would be in danger too.

So uh yeah that's kinda scary. Pretty sure if the swing states hold and Hillary loses any of those she has no path left to victory. 538 has Michigan as a toss-up last I checked.

The shocking thing to me was how close Viriginia was. It should have NEVER been remotely in play, it was Clinton +5-6 for months.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Virginia called for Clinton. It's over for Trump.

Promise?

 

[Camikaze]

Ohio's being called for Trump. 538 now gives Trump a 55% shot.

That percentage seems to be more to do with having moved Pennsylvania and Wisconsin into the 'too close to call' category - if you split those two and Michigan down the middle, then Trump wins. But if they still go as they were expected to, Clinton wins.

 

[CaptainF]

My understanding with Michigan is that they haven't really counted Detroit's votes yet, which should make a difference...

 

[jackelgull]

What's truly horrifying about Trump isn't Trump himself, but rather that an extremely alarming number of people support or at the very least condone racist, intolerant, xenophobic nationalism, and would like to make such radical, aggressive views the national policy of a superpower. It's the same kind of societal mentality that allowed a chap named Adolf to rise to power about 80 years ago.

Are politics in the US so robotically binary that Republicans would vote anyone to office as long as the candidate is nominally Republican? I really can't fathom how the "conservative" option, in the general sense of the word, is voting for a random rich loon who up-ended the conservative party, as opposed to an actual politician who at least has some experience in office. I'm sure Hillary has flaws and all, but voting in democracy often constitutes picking the lesser evil, and I really can't understand how said Trump could not be considered the greater evil. Are Americans taking democracy so lightly they'll vote any rich idiot with radical ideas just to spite the other party? Is their hubris such that they truly believe, in their heart, that "it [fascism] can't happen here"?

What's really ****ed up is that the aforementioned xenophobia and widespread intolerance doesn't trigger any alarms in the general population. Promises of making the lives of Muslim Americans hell? Literally walling off the southern border? Encouraging gung ho use of nuclear weapons? Oh, that's cool. It's comparatively inane stuff like the use of an email server or a mere dozen cases of sexual assault that can bring down a campaign to its knees at times.

I have to say that as a non-American, I've found this whole political race frankly baffling. Maybe Trump is too stupid to do anything drastic, but this kind of societal mentality really is the melting pot of tyrants, and unless changed, we may very well see the emergence of the next great dictator right there in the United States, in the near future.

I wouldn't call sexual assault "mere". Sexual assault is still high on my list of vile things that makes Trump unfit for president, although being Muslim, I wouldn't have voted for a Republican anyways.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

If Michigan votes Trump please, please hate my home state with all your guts. We will deserve it.

 

[Lord Shadow]

I wouldn't call sexual assault "mere". Sexual assault is still high on my list of vile things that makes Trump unfit for president, although being Muslim, I wouldn't have voted for a Republican anyways.

I call it "mere" compared to making life hell for millions of people just because of their religion or the colour of their skin, for instance. Just putting things in perspective.

 

[Lohrenswald]

What's truly horrifying about Trump isn't Trump himself, but rather that an extremely alarming number of people support or at the very least condone racist, intolerant, xenophobic nationalism, and would like to make such radical, aggressive views the national policy of a superpower. It's the same kind of societal mentality that allowed a chap named Adolf to rise to power about 80 years ago.

Are politics in the US so robotically binary that Republicans would vote anyone to office as long as the candidate is nominally Republican? I really can't fathom how the "conservative" option, in the general sense of the word, is voting for a random rich loon who up-ended the conservative party, as opposed to an actual politician who at least has some experience in office. I'm sure Hillary has flaws and all, but voting in democracy often constitutes picking the lesser evil, and I really can't understand how said Trump could not be considered the greater evil. Are Americans taking democracy so lightly they'll vote any rich idiot with radical ideas just to spite the other party? Is their hubris such that they truly believe, in their heart, that "it [fascism] can't happen here"?

What's really ****ed up is that the aforementioned xenophobia and widespread intolerance doesn't trigger any alarms in the general population. Promises of making the lives of Muslim Americans hell? Literally walling off the southern border? Encouraging gung ho use of nuclear weapons? Oh, that's cool. It's comparatively inane stuff like the use of an email server or a mere dozen cases of sexual assault that can bring down a campaign to its knees at times.

I have to say that as a non-American, I've found this whole political race frankly baffling. Maybe Trump is too stupid to do anything drastic, but this kind of societal mentality really is the melting pot of tyrants, and unless changed, we may very well see the emergence of the next great dictator right there in the United States, in the near future.

People aren't voting for him because he's nominally republican as much as in spite of it

They don't care about conservatism, they care about racism

btw I don't think condone means what you think it mean

 

[Kyriakos]

Promise?

I am not seeing other media reporting the race having ended. How much of the vote has been counted in Virginia? Reuters doesn't show any number at all and just noted "networks called it".

 

[BirraImperial]

Hillary massively underperforming on places where Obama won easily in Wisconsin...

 

[onejayhawk]

538's blog has flipped to 55% Trump as Ohio goes to Trump. The NY Times is more emphatic, going 94% for Trump. With leads in FL and NC, Trump has a clear path to (exactly) 270 via NH and one EV from Maine. Both Wisconsin and Michigan are possible flips.

Ohio was the first flip state. It went to Trump an hour ago. North Carolina, just called for Trump, was the State Clinton was targeting hardest. Florida is probably going to recount, again. The election could be on the line, again.

J

 

[innonimatu]

Don't underestimate Trump. Especially after he wins the most competitive election in the planet. Sure, he was up against the worst possible opponent, but still it takes a lot of skill and endurance to fight that election coming from an underdog and "clown" position, and win.

He can make pick and win his bets, be stubborn and beat adversaries and obstacles... just don't discount that guy because "everyone" is saying he's a clown. I don't know what he is, but a clown he is not, And it'll be dangerous to keep dismissing him like that. The one thing limiting his possible impact in the future is that he's already old, 70, and won't have many more active years. That, of course, if he's not just assassinated... the US has a history of having politicians who upset things too much assassinated.

 

[JollyRoger]

He's not going to win NH

 

[sophie]

I am not seeing other media reporting the race having ended. How much of the vote has been counted in Virginia? Reuters doesn't show any number at all and just noted "networks called it".

NYT is showing her up 60k votes with 98% of precincts reporting.

 

[CaptainF]

If Michigan votes Trump please, please hate my home state with all your guts. We will deserve it.

I've got you covered.

People aren't voting for him because he's nominally republican as much as in spite of it

They don't care about conservatism, they care about racism

Precisely. Obama brought out all the whackadoo racists, and they aren't afraid to hide anymore.

 

[Kyriakos]

^I think there is already a music video where Trump is assassinated

 

[Kennigit]

i guess the next bet is whether donald trump makes it to jan 20 or if he never gets coronated president

 

[KMRblue1027]

Colorado being called for Clinton, a moderate help

 

[Quintillus]

One of the difficulties is that Clinton is still projected to win the popular vote by at least a point. A lot of Trump's paths to victory still involve him winning the electoral college without winning the popular vote.

That would be sure to cause some civil unrest, for the second time in 5 elections. It was bad enough in 2000, but I'd take Bush in 2004 over Trump by a landslide, and that's including the Iraq war.

What's truly horrifying about Trump isn't Trump himself, but rather that an extremely alarming number of people support or at the very least condone racist, intolerant, xenophobic nationalism, and would like to make such radical, aggressive views the national policy of a superpower. It's the same kind of societal mentality that allowed a chap named Adolf to rise to power about 80 years ago.

Are politics in the US so robotically binary that Republicans would vote anyone to office as long as the candidate is nominally Republican? I really can't fathom how the "conservative" option, in the general sense of the word, is voting for a random rich loon who up-ended the conservative party, as opposed to an actual politician who at least has some experience in office. I'm sure Hillary has flaws and all, but voting in democracy often constitutes picking the lesser evil, and I really can't understand how said Trump could not be considered the greater evil. Are Americans taking democracy so lightly they'll vote any rich idiot with radical ideas just to spite the other party? Is their hubris such that they truly believe, in their heart, that "it [fascism] can't happen here"?

What's really ****ed up is that the aforementioned xenophobia and widespread intolerance doesn't trigger any alarms in the general population. Promises of making the lives of Muslim Americans hell? Literally walling off the southern border? Encouraging gung ho use of nuclear weapons? Oh, that's cool. It's comparatively inane stuff like the use of an email server or a mere dozen cases of sexual assault that can bring down a campaign to its knees at times.

I have to say that as a non-American, I've found this whole political race frankly baffling. Maybe Trump is too stupid to do anything drastic, but this kind of societal mentality really is the melting pot of tyrants, and unless changed, we may very well see the emergence of the next great dictator right there in the United States, in the near future.

First paragraph - absolutely. Second - some Republicans, yes. But not all. I have Republican friends who voted third-party this time because they aren't racist misogynists, but just tend to lean Republican due to fiscal policy. However, it looks like that may be a small minority of Republicans. I'm in a large, fairly progressive midwestern city where the city's been Democrat-controlled as long as I can remember, so Republicans here are probably more moderate than most places.

And I must say as an American, this has also been baffling. It's not that I didn't know there were racist, misogynistic elements of the Republican Party, it's that the Republican Party could run their primaries so ineptly that they allowed that element to hijack their party, and that the general election wouldn't be a landslide after that did happen.