Political Prediction Thread

[danjuno]

I put my map together the day before Crystal Ball came out with the exact same one. I'm calling my lawyer, Sabato!

 

[GoodSarmatian]

There's a American-European war coming. It will start next year when Francois Hollande bangs Donald Trump's wife.

 

[Phrossack]

My guesses, not strictly limited to the US:

Trump wins the nomination; establishment GOP disgusted but reluctantly accepts the hijacking of their party as the alternative to a Dem victory. Sanders has a good showing but still loses the nomination to Clinton. He eventually gives all his delegates and his endorsement to Clinton.

Trump wins significantly; he only gets stronger from controversy and scandal, while Clinton gets weaker. The next four years are awful; racists are emboldened, relations with countries around the world deteriorate, and the US goes to war with Iran.

In Europe, there is another major terrorist attack. Right-wing parties gain power in many countries. The UK leaves the EU, FN wins a lot of power in France in 2017, and the AfD get more seats in Germany. Overall, Europe is drifting significantly to the right. The war in Ukraine ends gradually as a frozen conflict; the rebel republics are de facto independent, war-torn, and run by warlords, while Ukraine remains embittered, impoverished, and dysfunctional. In the 2020's, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan dies without a clear successor, having prevented the appearance of any. Kazakhstan has a disputed election; Kazakh nationalists make ethnic Russians nervous, and before long Russia moves in forces and annexes most of northern Kazakhstan. Other countries grumble at the illegality of it but do nothing. Putin is still president.

In the Middle East, the Islamic State smolders on, nobody able to fill the vacuum in the west of Iraq. Assad forms agreements to share power with FSA officials, then murders or imprisons them as soon as his position is secure again.

Correct predictions in bold. Incorrect predictions in bright red. All others are well on track to being accurate.

But feel free to keep dismissing everything I say.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

But feel free to keep dismissing everything I say.

I'm right there with you buddy. I have been warning that angry whites would carry this election. I have been telling my friends to turn out because many assumed Hillary would win and weren't going to bother voting.

Now here we are. It sucks. I have never been so depressed about being right in my life

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Wrong thread

 

[dutchfire]

MN, WI, MI and PA are a waste of time/resources for him as they will never flip. The rest of those states he can certainly win.

Oops.

 

[dutchfire]

Predictions: North Carolina and Virginia will vote more democratic than Iowa this election. (The latter I'm more confident about than the former )

This seems to be the only prediction that I made in this thread. Called it right.

 

[Lohrenswald]

Gonna make a few specific predictions though:

USA:
Voter turnout less than 50 %
Trump wins

Victory has never tasted more sour

 

[Phrossack]

I'm right there with you buddy. I have been warning that angry whites would carry this election. I have been telling my friends to turn out because many assumed Hillary would win and weren't going to bother voting.

Now here we are. It sucks. I have never been so depressed about being right in my life

I can pretty much guarantee that now it's too late to slow down climate change or the mass extinction event that's ongoing. And the Republicans will do everything in their power to push voter ID laws, immigration restrictions, and gerrymandering to make sure the Democrats can never win again.

We're all sleepwalking towards a cliff in a society that doesn't believe in gravity.

 

[Rashiminos]

Well, looky there:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

Exit polling by race.

The various not-my-president protests have me considering an Ulysses S. Grant avatar, if the somewhat correct portion of my predictions continue to hold..

<snip>

Moderator Action: Follow-on from inappropriate content removed.

 

[Akka]

Well, looky there:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

Exit polling by race.

Holy cow, nearly 60 % of the white voted Trump ? The anger is real.

And also, more of Trumps voters disliked HC than HC voters disliked Trump. Considering how outrageous Trump was, that's pretty damning ^^

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

The under 30k income crowd was dominated by Hillary, so too the next rung up.

 

[plarq]

Ryan will cave to Trump's demands.

 

[Commodore]

Correct predictions in bold. Incorrect predictions in bright red. All others are well on track to being accurate.

But feel free to keep dismissing everything I say.

We o my dismiss your outlandish claims. Those bold predictions you made are things a lot of other people were saying would happen as well, so it's not like you being right on those things was any great shock.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I was right in my prediction that Trump would not give a concession speech.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I predict melancholia among the democrats that will last at lest 6 months.

 

[_random_]

Tami Sawyer will take out the incumbent in Tennessee House District 90.

Tennessee House District 96 will flip to the Democrats.

Half-right again!

 

[Phrossack]

We o my dismiss your outlandish claims. Those bold predictions you made are things a lot of other people were saying would happen as well, so it's not like you being right on those things was any great shock.

You tend to angrily dismiss most things I say, presumably by force of habit. And a few years ago, the idea that an egomaniacal, bigoted sex offender would take over was unthinkable. Nobody saw the fall of Mosul coming a few years prior. Or Crimea. I make pessimistic predictions, people reflexively contradict me, I turn out to be right, and does anyone in my life decide to stop reflexively contradicting me? Of course not.

 

[JollyRoger]

I disagree Phrossack.

 

[innonimatu]

Holy cow, nearly 60 % of the white voted Trump ? The anger is real.

Again, this is what pollsters who work for the party machines and the media, all those that have been failing again and again in recent elections (Brexit, Colombia, this one) are claiming.

The reality is impossible to know because the votes are anonymous. It could have been anything. And these polls are so obviously useful for political manipulation (even in the fight for power inside parties) that they should never be accepted as a truth. Call me cynical, but my bet is that more often than now they are carefully staged to produce an outcome that serves the interests of the groups who order them. Easy enough to do that by picking polling location, discarding unwanted data, etc. No one is independently overseeing these pools and the supposed "facts" are impossible to check (unlike the election numbers where the result is public and verified by observers).