[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[red_elk]

Trump says he’s working on arranging a meeting with Putin​

President-elect Trump said Thursday he’s working to set up a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“He wants to meet. And we’re setting it up,” Trump told Fox News’s Peter Doocy at Mar-a-Lago during a meeting with Republican governors. Trump noted he’s had “a lot of communication” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and has spoken with numerous other world leaders. But he has yet to speak with Putin. “But President Putin wants to meet. He’s said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over with. That’s a bloody mess,” Trump said of the war in Ukraine.

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thehill.com

Nations tend to do that regardless

Nations usually tend to draft men without abducting them off the streets.

 

[Snowygerry]

Right.

Russians conduct forced conscription for military service in occupied Ukrainian territories

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

Russians are forcing Ukrainians under the age of 60 to register for military service. In case of refusal, the Russians threaten to dismiss them and further restrict their employment.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Thousands of Russian teenagers have already died in Ukraine. Ukraine has not resorted to that yet.

‘He couldn’t wait to join’: thousands of young Russians die in Ukraine war

Moscow is spending millions to try to mould a new generation willing to give their lives in military service

www.theguardian.com

 

[red_elk]

Russians are forcing Ukrainians under the age of 60 to register for military service.

It's quite telling that you equalize mandatory registering with press gang mobilization going on in Ukraine, admitted even in Western media.

Ukraine is employing increasingly controversial methods for mobilization

After the legal age for enlistment was lowered from 27 to 25, the pace of recruitment accelerated. But there is considerable criticism about violence by recruiters, the social disparities in the selection of recruits and the poor quality of training for new soldiers.

www.lemonde.fr

Since 2022, the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens aged 18 to 60 with a male gender marker in their documents are prohibited from leaving the country. This ban has led to dozens of deaths of people attempting to flee the war illegally and negatively impacts not only male-gendered Ukrainians but also members of the transgender community and women who, as refugees abroad, have been unable to reunite with their loved ones for years, and children whose parents cannot visit them.

This year, the Zelensky government decided to intensify measures of forced mobilization, which include denying at least hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens consular services abroad, who do not wish to either go to war or be trapped in Ukraine if they return and update their data in Ukrainian military offices. In the name of the war, the Zelensky government is fully active in promoting anti-social policies, repression against dissenters, implementation of censorship and human rights violations, particularly against people with a male gender marker in their documents, and persecution against conscientious objectors and anti-war activists like Yurii Sheliazhenko, a leading Ukrainian pacifist, who is currently being prosecuted with false accusations of ‘justifying Russian aggression.’

On the Side of Ukrainians Resisting Forced Mobilization in Ukraine and Abroad - Transnational Social Strike Platform

by PERMANENT ASSEMBLY AGAINST THE WAR Ukrainian German The third year of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been marked by a large number of civilian deaths and soldier casualties on both sides, unprecedented destruction of civilian infrastructure, and horrific crimes. The Ukrainian population, on...

www.transnational-strike.info

 

[Snowygerry]

Pacifists are not very useful when your next door neighbours come to kill you and steal your property.

A la guerre comme à la guerre. We shot deserters in 1914 and 1940.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

And Russia shot deserters in mass in second world war and continue doing it today in Urakainian war and are the agressors not the defenders. Go imagine.

 

[sylvanllewelyn]

Sorry @red_elk I usually enjoy many of your posts.

But I thought "draft" means forcing people to go to war? People are definitely dragged from homes, streets, schools, wherever.

I am not aware that United Nations, or any mainstream rules of war, objecting to press gangs for defensive wars.

 

[red_elk]

Thousands of Russian teenagers have already died in Ukraine. Ukraine has not resorted to that yet.

‘He couldn’t wait to join’: thousands of young Russians die in Ukraine war

Moscow is spending millions to try to mould a new generation willing to give their lives in military service

www.theguardian.com

Ukrainian army accepts 18+ "He couldn't wait to join" volunteers just as well.

Sorry @red_elk I usually enjoy many of your posts.

But I thought "draft" means forcing people to go to war? People are definitely dragged from homes, streets, schools, wherever.

I am not aware that United Nations, or any mainstream rules of war, objecting to press gangs for defensive wars.

I'm not saying they violate any international laws by this practice. Probably not.

 

[Verbose]

Ukrainian army accepts 18+ "He couldn't wait to join" volunteers just as well.

I'm not saying they violate any international laws by this practice. Probably not.

At least Ukraine can manage a mobilization, unlike Russia.

 

[red_elk]

Yeah, if that's what you call "managing a mobilization", hope Russia will never be able to do it.

 

[Verbose]

Yeah, if that's what you call "managing a mobilization", hope Russia will never be able to do it.

Yeah, that is kind of the thing... What the Ukranians are trying to do here is the continuation of a revolution in their society. So, sure, Russia will not try it, unless after there has first been a revolutionary moment also in Russia.

Otherwise it might just be though of as standing up for the human right to be able to bribe oneself out of discomfort at all times, if one has the means.

That's what the Ukranians are trying to change about their society, but Russia is not. Not letting people get away with it is paradoxically an investment towards societal solidarity – not that the Ukranians have achieved it yet, but this is also what that looks like.

 

[red_elk]

What the Ukranians are trying to do here is the continuation of a revolution in their society.

Who are the revolutionaries - the ones who do the beating and packing people in vans, or those who flee?

 

[Verbose]

Who are the revolutionaries - the ones who beat up people and packing them in vans, or those who flee?

I wasn't expecting you to even be able to get that one. Russia as it currently is, is set up to be by definition incapable of understanding Ukraine and what is going on with it. The war will go on, and the Russian incomprehension will mount.

 

[red_elk]

I wasn't expecting you to even be able to get that one. Russia as it currently is, is set up to be by definition incapable of understanding Ukraine and what is going on with it. The war will go on, and the Russian incomprehension will mount.

Likewise, your pretending to understand both Ukraine and Russia better than me never gets old.

By the way, bribes to evade mobilization still perfectly work in Ukraine, just FYI.
Those who are being brutalized are almost exclusively the poor ones. Go ahead and tell me you don't believe it.
I wouldn't even reply, but sheer madness of branding that video as "continuation of a revolution in their society" is a bit too much.

 

[Gedemon]

Likewise, your pretending to understand both Ukraine and Russia better than me never gets old.

if you hadn't blatantly lied to our faces here, maybe that wouldn't be the case.

or if you hadn't lied, you were ignorant of things we knew..

 

[EvaDK]

By the way, bribes to evade mobilization still perfectly work in Ukraine, just FYI.

I'd guess that in Russia, those in power do not need to bribe anyone to save their sons or brothers from being sent to the meatgrinder in Ukraine, because the system is rigged.
Ethnic minorities are 'somehow' overrepresented among Russian casualties, relative to the whole population mix.

How many members of the Duma have served at the front in Ukraine? Their sons, brothers or husbands?

 

[red_elk]

if you hadn't blatantly lied to our faces here, maybe that wouldn't be the case.

or if you hadn't lied, you were ignorant of things we knew..

I did neither, you might be projecting here.

Ethnic minorities are 'somehow' overrepresented among Russian casualties, relative to the whole population mix.

Nope. This claim was already discussed and debunked.

Generally, the pattern is that the fatality rates are higher in economically deprived regions, some of which are ethnic republics. It is unlikely that the ethnic gaps in mortality are driven mostly by the conscious policies of ethnic profiling and discrimination. Regional socio-economic inequalities affecting the rates of recruitment in the military appear to be a more important factor. It is not a specifically Russian phenomenon that careers in the military are more attractive for young men in poorer areas with fewer civilian opportunities. Kriner and Shen (2010) provide evidence of the casualty gaps in the US military in the WWII and the wars in Korea, Vietnam and Iraq. Maynard (2009) estimate the correlation coefficients between mortality rates and per capita income at the US state level for the wars in Vietnam (r = 0.51) and Iraq (r = 0.52). The correlation coefficients are very similar to the one estimated with the Russian data in this study (r = 0.48).

I'd guess that in Russia, those in power do not need to bribe anyone to save their sons or brothers

Even those not in power do not need it. Dodging mobilization is not criminalized in Russia, there is only administrative fine for that.
Besides that, mobilization is stopped since October 2022, multiple predictions of "second wave" in these threads have failed so far.

 

[Strong Reaction]

Trump says he’s working on arranging a meeting with Putin​

President-elect Trump said Thursday he’s working to set up a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“He wants to meet. And we’re setting it up,” Trump told Fox News’s Peter Doocy at Mar-a-Lago during a meeting with Republican governors. Trump noted he’s had “a lot of communication” with Chinese President Xi Jinping and has spoken with numerous other world leaders. But he has yet to speak with Putin. “But President Putin wants to meet. He’s said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over with. That’s a bloody mess,” Trump said of the war in Ukraine.

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thehill.com

Nations usually tend to draft men without abducting them off the streets.

Trump is all show no go. I think there is hope in the Ukraine and maybe hope in Russia that Trump will be able to leverage some sort of cease fire or peace terms. I would not hold my breath. Has Trump had a single diplomatic success on the world stage? I can't think of one. He is good at one sided transactional relationships, &#%^#% his partners, breaking treaties (Iran nuclear deal, NAFTA), throwing allies under the bus and cutting and running (in reference to the Syrian Kurds and the Afghanistan). Aside from that does Putin even want peace? I cant see him stop pursuing victory until the wheels completely fall off.

 

[leif erikson]

Moderator Action: Please cease the bickering and get back to news. Thanks.

 

[Gedemon]

The people who told Trump he could end the war in 2 days must be the same people who told Putin he could conquer Ukraine in 3 days.

Trump Is Facing a Catastrophic Defeat in Ukraine

If Ukraine falls, it will be hard to spin as anything but a debacle for the United States, and for its president.

www.theatlantic.com

[...]

He promised to settle the war quickly upon taking office, but now faces the hard reality that Vladimir Putin has no interest in a negotiated settlement that leaves Ukraine intact as a sovereign nation. Putin also sees an opportunity to strike a damaging blow at American global power. Trump must now choose between accepting a humiliating strategic defeat on the global stage and immediately redoubling American support for Ukraine while there’s still time. The choice he makes in the next few weeks will determine not only the fate of Ukraine but also the success of his presidency.

The end of an independent Ukraine is and always has been Putin’s goal.
[...]
Putin’s stated terms for a settlement have been consistent throughout the war: a change of government in Kyiv in favor of a pro-Russian regime; “de-Nazification,” his favored euphemism for extinguishing Ukrainian nationalism; demilitarization, or leaving Ukraine without combat power sufficient to defend against another Russian attack; and “neutrality,” meaning no ties with Western organizations such as NATO or the EU, and no Western aid programs aimed at shoring up Ukrainian independence. Western experts filling the op-ed pages and journals with ideas for securing a post-settlement Ukraine have been negotiating with themselves. Putin has never agreed to the establishment of a demilitarized zone, foreign troops on Ukrainian soil, a continuing Ukrainian military relationship with the West of any kind, or the survival of Volodymyr Zelensky’s government or any pro-Western government in Kyiv.
[...]
Putin sees the timelines working in his favor. Russian forces may begin to run low on military equipment in the fall of 2025, but by that time Ukraine may already be close to collapse. Ukraine can’t sustain the war another year without a new aid package from the United States. Ukrainian forces are already suffering from shortages of soldiers, national exhaustion, and collapsing morale. Russia’s casualty rate is higher than Ukraine’s, but there are more Russians than Ukrainians, and Putin has found a way to keep filling the ranks, including with foreign fighters. As one of Ukraine’s top generals recently observed, “the number of Russian troops is constantly increasing.” This year, he estimates, has brought 100,000 additional Russian troops to Ukrainian soil. Meanwhile, lack of equipment prevents Ukraine from outfitting reserve units.
[...]
His forces on the ground are making steady progress—at horrific cost, but Putin is willing to pay it so long as Russians tolerate it and he believes that victory is in sight.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s lifeline to the U.S. and the West has never been more imperiled. After three years of dealing with an American administration trying to help Ukraine defend itself, Putin will soon have an American president and a foreign-policy team who have consistently opposed further aid to Ukraine.
[...]
Is this a moment at which to expect Putin to negotiate a peace deal? A truce would give Ukrainians time to breathe and restore their damaged infrastructure as well as their damaged psyches. It would allow them to re-arm without expending the weapons they already have. It would reduce the divisions between the Trump administration and its European allies. It would spare Trump the need to decide whether to seek an aid package for Ukraine and allow him to focus on parts of the world where Russia is more vulnerable, such as the post-Assad Middle East. Today Putin has momentum on his side in what he regards, correctly, as the decisive main theater. If he wins in Ukraine, his loss in Syria will look trivial by comparison. If he hasn’t blinked after almost three years of misery, hardship, and near defeat, why would he blink now when he believes, with reason, that he is on the precipice of such a massive victory?
[...]
Russian victory means the end of Ukraine. Putin’s aim is not an independent albeit smaller Ukraine, a neutral Ukraine, or even an autonomous Ukraine within a Russian sphere of influence. His goal is no Ukraine. “Modern Ukraine,” he has said, “is entirely the product of the Soviet era.” Putin does not just want to sever Ukraine’s relationships with the West. He aims to stamp out the very idea of Ukraine, to erase it as a political and cultural entity.
[...]
International human-rights organizations and journalists, writing in The New York Times, have documented the creation in occupied Ukraine of “a highly institutionalized, bureaucratic and frequently brutal system of repression run by Moscow” comprising “a gulag of more than 100 prisons, detention facilities, informal camps and basements” across an area roughly the size of Ohio. According to a June 2023 report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, nearly all Ukrainians released from this gulag reported being subjected to systematic torture and abuse by Russian authorities. Tortures ranged from “punching and cutting detainees, putting sharp objects under fingernails, hitting with batons and rifle butts, strangling, waterboarding, electrocution, stress positions for long periods, exposure to cold temperatures or to a hot box, deprivation of water and food, and mock executions or threats.” Much of the abuse has been sexual, with women and men raped or threatened with rape. Hundreds of summary executions have been documented, and more are likely—many of the civilians detained by Russia have yet to be seen again. Escapees from Russian-occupied Ukraine speak of a “prison society” in which anyone with pro-Ukrainian views risks being sent “to the basement,” where torture and possible death await.
[...]
These horrors await the rest of Ukraine if Putin wins. [...] Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians will flee, putting enormous strain on Ukraine’s neighbors to the west. But thousands more will wind up in prison, facing torture or murder. Some commentators argue that it would be better to let Ukraine lose quickly because that, at least, would end the suffering. Yet for many millions of Ukrainians, defeat would be just the beginning of their suffering.
[...]
Which brings us to President-Elect Donald Trump, who now finds himself in a trap only partly of his own devising. When Trump said during his campaign that he could end the war in 24 hours, he presumably believed what most observers believed: that Putin needed a respite, that he was prepared to offer peace in exchange for territory, and that a deal would include some kind of security guarantee for whatever remained of Ukraine. Because Trump’s peace proposal at the time was regarded as such a bad deal for Kyiv, most assumed Putin would welcome it. Little did they know that the deal was not remotely bad enough for Putin to accept. So now Trump is in the position of having promised a peace deal that he cannot possibly get without forcing Putin to recalculate.
[...]
Trump has a credibility problem, partly due to the Biden administration’s failures, but partly of his own making. Putin knows what we all know: that Trump wants out of Ukraine. [...] Putin also knows that even if Trump eventually changes his mind, perhaps out of frustration with Putin’s stalling, it will be too late. Months would pass before an aid bill made it through both houses and weaponry began arriving on the battlefield. Putin watched that process grind on last year, and he used the time well. He can afford to wait. After all, if eight months from now Putin feels the tide about to turn against him in the war, he can make the same deal then that Trump would like him to make now.
[...]
Today, not only Putin but Xi, Kim, Khamenei, and others whom the American people generally regard as adversaries believe that a Russian victory in Ukraine will do grave damage to American strength everywhere. That is why they are pouring money, weaponry, and, in the case of North Korea, even their own soldiers into the battle. Whatever short-term benefits they may be deriving from assisting Russia, the big payoff they seek is a deadly blow to the American power and influence that has constrained them for decades.

What’s more, America’s allies around the world agree. They, too, believe that a Russian victory in Ukraine, in addition to threatening the immediate security of European states, will undo the American-led security system they depend on. That is why even Asian allies far from the scene of the war have been making their own contributions to the fight.

If Trump fails to support Ukraine, he faces the unpalatable prospect of presiding over a major strategic defeat.

[...]

When the fall of Ukraine comes, it will be hard to spin as anything but a defeat for the United States, and for its president.

This was not what Trump had in mind when he said he could get a peace deal in Ukraine. He no doubt envisioned being lauded as the statesman who persuaded Putin to make a deal, saving the world from the horrors of another endless war. His power and prestige would be enhanced. He would be a winner. His plans do not include being rebuffed, rolled over, and by most of the world’s judgment, defeated.