[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[red_elk]

On the topic about scamming and extortions.

Russia is being set aflame by hundreds of arson attacks​

An elderly man places a newspaper on an atm terminal, douses it in spirit, and sets it alight while filming it all on his smartphone. The pensioner then repeats the trick twice more on December 21st—once unsuccessfully—before police nab him in Kolpino, near St Petersburg. Within days, Alexander Nikiforov is in court and charged with terrorism. But his case, echoing dozens of similar events targeting banks, post offices and police cars the same week, has raised more questions than it has answered. Mr Nikiforov claims he was acting not from conviction, but under the instructions of unidentified telephone scammers.

It is not the first time Russia has experienced arson attacks since beginning its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the first year of the war, military recruitment offices and police departments were frequent targets. According to a forthcoming investigation by Mediazona, an independent Russian media outfit, there have been 280 arson attacks to date. But if the early wave of attacks were easily identifiable as anti-war or anti-mobilisation protests, that is no longer the case. The latest attacks, which peaked in the second half of December, appear more driven by manipulation and coercion. The perpetrators, often pensioners like Mr Nikiforov, claim to have been tricked into transferring large sums of cash, before somehow being persuaded they must burn atms to recover the money.

Russia is blaming Ukraine for the unusual campaign, citing both motive and means. On the latter point, Ukraine is somewhat of a world-leader in the phone scamming industry, with hundreds of murky call-centres operating from cities such as Kyiv and Dnipro. Since Russia began its original war on Ukraine in 2014, and Ukrainian law-enforcement agencies broke off all co-operation with Russia, Russian citizens have been prime targets of the criminal activity.

Russia is being set aflame by hundreds of arson attacks

The Kremlin blames a campaign of subversion and psychological warfare

www.economist.com

 

[Birdjaguar]

I cannot imagine why Ukrainians are upset with Russia. What could Russia possibly have done to Ukraine that would warrant setting ATM machines on fire in Russian cities. Does that even make sense?

 

[red_elk]

I cannot imagine why Ukrainians are upset with Russia. What could Russia possibly have done to Ukraine that would warrant setting ATM machines on fire in Russian cities. Does that even make sense?

I have no idea either

 

[Kyriakos]

On the topic about scamming and extortions.

Russia is being set aflame by hundreds of arson attacks​

An elderly man places a newspaper on an atm terminal, douses it in spirit, and sets it alight while filming it all on his smartphone. The pensioner then repeats the trick twice more on December 21st—once unsuccessfully—before police nab him in Kolpino, near St Petersburg. Within days, Alexander Nikiforov is in court and charged with terrorism. But his case, echoing dozens of similar events targeting banks, post offices and police cars the same week, has raised more questions than it has answered. Mr Nikiforov claims he was acting not from conviction, but under the instructions of unidentified telephone scammers.

It is not the first time Russia has experienced arson attacks since beginning its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In the first year of the war, military recruitment offices and police departments were frequent targets. According to a forthcoming investigation by Mediazona, an independent Russian media outfit, there have been 280 arson attacks to date. But if the early wave of attacks were easily identifiable as anti-war or anti-mobilisation protests, that is no longer the case. The latest attacks, which peaked in the second half of December, appear more driven by manipulation and coercion. The perpetrators, often pensioners like Mr Nikiforov, claim to have been tricked into transferring large sums of cash, before somehow being persuaded they must burn atms to recover the money.

Russia is blaming Ukraine for the unusual campaign, citing both motive and means. On the latter point, Ukraine is somewhat of a world-leader in the phone scamming industry, with hundreds of murky call-centres operating from cities such as Kyiv and Dnipro. Since Russia began its original war on Ukraine in 2014, and Ukrainian law-enforcement agencies broke off all co-operation with Russia, Russian citizens have been prime targets of the criminal activity.

Russia is being set aflame by hundreds of arson attacks

The Kremlin blames a campaign of subversion and psychological warfare

www.economist.com

On the positive side, it's a more interesting use of the phone scam than getting US/Canadian senior citizens to send their Amazon prime to grinders in India ^^

 

[Yeekim]

An elderly man places a newspaper on an atm terminal, douses it in spirit, and sets it alight while filming it all on his smartphone. The pensioner then repeats the trick twice more on December 21st—once unsuccessfully—before police nab him in Kolpino, near St Petersburg. Within days, Alexander Nikiforov is in court and charged with terrorism

"We are very lucky they are so ******* stupid".

The terrorism charge is the cherry on top, really.
EDIT: Damn, I really want to know how they convinced him to burn the newspaper.

 

[Kyriakos]

I don't agree with that angle... Sure, you can see an out of touch old (or dumb, or old and dumb) person (in this case in Russia) as a symbol of the state or part of a collective, but they are primarily a very vulnerable group and their suffering won't help much with anything. Clearly it's not the worst nor the most egregiously unfair victimization in a war, yet still is nothing to be proud of.
Russia's draconian laws can certainly lead to some of those victims being then handled in more terrible ways by the state. You typically aren't heroic in taking revenge by tricking your adversary to beat his/her own grandparents' distant cousins and imagining this will be a moment of self-reflection on a character flaw and thus somehow an indirect hit. It's only done so as to do something, because the crucial reaction is unavailable to you.

EDIT: Damn, I really want to know how they convinced him to burn the newspaper.

Most likely by explicitly telling him they will return his money if he does so. It's how all ending-phase scams work; when you have no more money yourself, they will tell you to victimize others (bigger fish) for a return of what was taken from you (which, obviously, won't happen either).

 

[red_elk]

There was a recent wave of arson attacks in Ukraine too (it's mentioned in the article I linked), though it looks like most targets were TCK (recruiters) cars.
Ukrainian officials blamed Russian scammers, but I wouldn't be so sure in this case.

 

[Gedemon]

Engels fuel depot has been burning for six days, and then hit again the day the fire was extinguished. No phone call involved.

Ukrainian Drones Flew 400 Miles To Double-Tap a Russian Bomber Base

Fires have raged for a week.

www.forbes.com

And fallen debris of intercepted ATACMS and Storm Shadows have caused fires on various targets in Russia

Ukraine Launches ‘Massive’ Drone Attacks Inside Russia, Officials Say

The barrage appeared to be one of the largest recent assaults in Ukraine’s campaign to damage Russia’s war machine on its home territory.

www.nytimes.com

The Ukrainian military’s General Staff said it had attacked three regions of Russia and the republic of Tatarstan, including strikes nearly 700 miles into Russia. The targets included an oil storage base, as well as military production facilities, the General Staff said in a statement.

The drone strikes forced at least six cities to restrict their airspace on Tuesday morning, according to a statement from Russia’s Federal Aviation Agency. Those included the cities of Saratov and Engels, which were attacked overnight.

Two industrial plants sustained damage, Roman V. Busargin, the governor of the Saratov region, wrote on the Telegram messaging app. “Today Saratov and Engels were subjected to a massive UAV attack,” he said, using the initials for unmanned aerial vehicle. “Air defenses eliminated a large number of targets.”

It was the second time in a week that Engels, which is the site of an airfield for some of Russia’s long-range, nuclear-capable bombers, was attacked. Emergency crews recently extinguished a large fire sparked by a strike on Jan. 8.

Mr. Busargin said that, in the wake of the attacks, schools would be closed and classes in Engels and Saratov would be held remotely on Tuesday.

The authorities in the Tula region of western Russia similarly confirmed a large drone attack. Dmitry V. Milyaev, the regional governor, said air defenses had shot down 16 drones and that falling debris had damaged some cars and buildings. There were no casualties, officials said.

Local news media in Kazan, the capital of the republic of Tatarstan, in southwestern Russia, reported that a tanker at a liquefied natural gas base had been struck, igniting a large fire.

The head of the republic, Rustam N. Minnikhanov, wrote on Telegram that firefighters had put out the blaze and that there had been no casualties or “significant damage.”

In the border region of Bryansk, which has come under more regular attack, powerful explosions were reported. The Russian independent news organization Astra said that a chemical plant had been struck; the report could not be independently verified.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that Ukraine had launched more than 140 drones, along with U.S.-made long-range missiles known as ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles provided by Britain.

“These actions of the Kyiv regime, supported by Western curators, will not go unanswered,” the ministry said in a statement.

 

[red_elk]

Don't worry, Russia will respond accordingly, most likely by bombing energy infrastructure. Without phone calls either.

Meanwhile, the dynamics of the frontline doesn't seem to change.

DeepState reports about worsening situation in Toretsk, which may become the second city-size settlement Ukraine will lose in 2025.

MSN

Russia cut the Western supply line to Pokrovsk

 

[Snowygerry]

That seems a tad optimistic, Prokovsk was first mentioned here as a potential Russian gain in febr. 2024.

If red arrows on a map won wars your army would be invincible

A Russian Field Army Set Up Its HQ In A Highrise Near Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian Munition Brought Down The Building.

The strike on the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army in Novohrodivka is a setback for the Russian offensive.

www.forbes.com

Every attempted encirclement obviously also exposes you own forces to the enemy, something the Russians avoided in recent years with slow, grinding frontal attacks.

But the proximity of the Russians to Pokrovsk also brings them into range of the Pokrovsk garrison’s own short-range weapons—and its most numerous surveillance drones: the first link in the “kill chain” that ends with Russian HQs exploding.

As the main battle for Pokrovsk begins in the coming days or weeks and more Russian force stage closer to the city, their commanders and command staffs will stage closer to the city, as well.

The Ukrainians will be looking for them, and preparing to strike with rockets, missiles and bombs.

 

[Gedemon]

Don't worry, Russia will respond accordingly, most likely by bombing energy infrastructure. Without phone calls either.

I'm sorry you don't have access to internet in Russia.

Just so you know, Russia had never wait for a bombing on its energy infrastructure to do so in Ukraine. Problem is the terror bombing of cities that goes with those.

 

[red_elk]

That seems a tad optimistic, Prokovsk was first mentioned here as a potential Russian gain in febr. 2024.

Crimea was mentioned as a potential Ukrainian gain in 2022. In Pokrovsk though, supply line was cut.

Every attempted encirclement obviously also exposes you own forces to the enemy, something the Russians avoided in recent years with slow, grinding frontal attacks.

Such maneuvers may be dangerous because of possible enemy counter-attacks. Ukrainian infantry capable of doing so seems to be in Kursk though.

 

[Snowygerry]

We'll see soon enough, or not..

Certain is that Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade’s headquarters is not doing any more invading anytime soon

 

[red_elk]

Certain is that Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade’s headquarters is not doing any more invading anytime soon

Don't worry, Russia is blowing up more than enough Ukrainian military targets too

 

[Snowygerry]

Yes, it would be best to stop doing that.

 

[leif erikson]

Moderator Action: Less bickering and more news please.

 

[Gedemon]

Australia warns of ‘strongest possible action’ if citizen killed in Ukraine

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says gov’t working to verify report that volunteer fighter was killed by Russian forces.

www.aljazeera.com

“We have maintained, Australia has maintained diplomatic relations with Russia through that period under different governments. However, we will consider all options once we have ascertained the facts and once we can verify what has actually occurred here with Mr Jenkins,” Wong said.

Video that circulated on social media last month showed Jenkins dressed in combat uniform while being interrogated and hit across the head by an unseen man speaking Russian.

The 32-year-old is believed to be the first Australian held as a prisoner of war by Russian forces in Ukraine.

Not including Jenkins, at least six Australians are believed to have been killed in Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion.

If his death is confirmed, Jenkins would be the first Australian prisoner of war killed by a foreign power since Horace William “Slim” Madden died in captivity in North Korea in 1951.

 

[red_elk]

Kazakhstan receives decoded black box data from crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane​

ALMATY, Jan. 15 (Xinhua) -- Kazakhstan has received the decoded data from the two black boxes of the crashed Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft and is conducting further analysis of it, the Kazakh Transport Ministry said Wednesday.

The flight recorders (black boxes) were delivered to Kazakhstan from Brazil and are now being studied by specialists, the ministry said in a statement.

"The commission, in line with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Annex 13 standards, will publish a preliminary report after a detailed study of all facts and materials, providing established factual information and the progress of the investigation," the ministry said.

Kazakhstan receives decoded black box data from crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane

Kazakhstan receives decoded black box data from crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane-

english.news.cn

People who accused Russia in not allowing the plane to land in Russian airports soon will have a chance to prove themselves right.
Or, rather get their nose rubbed in the evidence.

 

[Gedemon]

Does that mean civilian flights will be allowed to travel again over the Russian war zone ?

 

[EvaDK]

Russian Economy Time Bomb: Putin Warned of 'Seismically Disruptive' War Debt​

Russia is financing its military spending through a shadow plan that poses a "seismically disruptive" threat to an economy already buffeted by high inflation and interest rates, according to an analysis.

Craig Kennedy, a former Morgan Stanley investment banker, has described how the Russian state requires banks to issue preferential loans to military firms that are making President Vladimir Putin's war effort in Ukraine possible.

That gives the Russian economy a better bill of health, misleading experts into thinking that Putin can continue with record military spending without any adverse effects to the country's finances, according to Kennedy.

Kennedy's findings suggest that the Russian economy could face corporate and banking collapse with its continued military spending, suggesting that Western support for Kyiv may be able to surpass Moscow's ability to maintain a war of attrition.

Kennedy said Russia has followed a two-track strategy to fund its war via its defense budget expenditures as well as an off-budget plan of similar size enabled by a law enacted on February 25, 2022, which compels Russian banks to give preferential loans to military-related businesses.

In that period, Russia has faced a 71 percent expansion in corporate debt worth $415 billion or 19.4 percent of GDP—higher than oil and gas revenues and defense budget expenditures, Kennedy said in his Navigating Russia newsletter.

That means Russia's total war costs "far exceed" what official budget expenditures would suggest.

This off-budget defense funding was harder to sustain during the second half of 2024, spiking inflation and pushing up interest rates for "real" economy borrowers to above 21 percent, "creating the preconditions for a systemic credit crisis," Kennedy said.

He said preferential bank loans worth up to $250 billion had been given to defense contractors, many of which had poor credit.

This is driving up inflation and interest rate hikes and risks triggering a systemic crisis and the longer Moscow delays ending the war, the closer it will move toward corporate and banking collapses that the Russian government would be forced to cover.

In reporting Kennedy's findings, the Financial Times said that Putin "sits on a ticking financial time bomb of his own making" and that Kyiv's allies must deny Moscow greater access to external funds.

"Putin has commandeered the Russian banking system, with banks required to lend to companies designated by the government at chosen, preferential terms."

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-sanctions-economy-inflation-kennedy-2013777

So, Russian defense companies are being financed with hidden loans and the banks are instructed by the Kremlin to issue these loans, potentially uninsured loans? If these companies go under, the banks holding the debt likely go under as well, unless Putin has a couple of hundred billions to bail them out.