2020 US Election (Part 3)

[Estebonrober]

Unfortunately, the congressional map is so heavily gerrymandered and the structure of the EC and the Senate are so right-leaning by default that they really have no choice but to go after those rural votes. I read an article that it is possible for the GOP to control the Senate with states equaling a population of only 17 million compared to 300+ million total people in the US.

I just don't think they have to be republicans to get enough of that rural vote that it keeps there representation just completely skewed in their favor not insanely skewed in their favor. Ruby red county here but if you push the family value fiscal policies here you get more dem votes then if you try to pretend you are a republican and talk social values.

 

[Kyriakos]

I had to look up the gentleman on the left, not having ever seen him. Rather than political consultant, he has that air about him of the local TV morning show host, either co-host or weather guy.

Turn off the sound and watch this video starting from 4:20. Twenty seconds is enough. The facial hear helps, otherwise the look doesn't do it for me. Same with the bowtie, that's something few can pull off successfully. Tucker Carlson looks a lot better since he ditched it.

Trucker Carlson looks like an FFA fighter next to this guy.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I had to look up the gentleman on the left, not having ever seen him. Rather than political consultant, he has that air about him of the local TV morning show host, either co-host or weather guy.

Turn off the sound and watch this video starting from 4:20. Twenty seconds is enough. The facial hear helps, otherwise the look doesn't do it for me. Same with the bowtie, that's something few can pull off successfully. Tucker Carlson looks a lot better since he ditched it.

He is also incredibly rude. He tweeted a litany of lies and someone fact checked him politely and he called her the c-word. He got banned from CNN or somewhere else for calling Kamala a 'lying b-word' for no reason.

 

[Hrothbern]

Unfortunately, the congressional map is so heavily gerrymandered and the structure of the EC and the Senate are so right-leaning by default that they really have no choice but to go after those rural votes. I read an article that it is possible for the GOP to control the Senate with states equaling a population of only 17 million compared to 300+ million total people in the US.

538 has this gerrymandering page on the House. Is also amazing.
I looked for such a page for the Senate but could not find one on internet. Do you have perhaps a link to that article ?

On rural
yes
that is a voter profile.
I did spend for two years or so a chunk of my time on customer profile analyses for my line of business (B2B industry). When we got trained to use a certain methodology we did the groundwork in teams involving the plant managers and their selling managers and prevented that they could see the results before everything was feeded in. (They got the full understanding how it would be processed in advance).
I made sure to be at every plant in this project, we started with 10, when the final analysis was presented for the first time.
To the point
They were all flabbergasted from their own inputs. They owned a result that was to some or more degree counter-intuitive to theit gut-feeling underbellies.
A sensitive and important moment to re-calibrate their biasses and improve the sustainability of their customer relations.

Dare to know

The big risk of talking is that you do not spend enough time on knowing. And when you get a group consensus on knowing, the hurdle to re-calibrate gets higher.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Trump is going to have a press conference at 11am ET.

 

[Hrothbern]

Trump is going to have a press conference at 11am.

That is in 45 minutes ?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

538 has this gerrymandering page on the House. Is also amazing.
I looked for such a page for the Senate but could not find one on internet. Do you have perhaps a link to that article ?

I misquoted, it's 17% of the population, not 17 million.

Representational fairness is even more dire in the US Senate, which gives disproportionate power to older, whiter, more rural and more conservative interests. Right now, states representing just 17% of the nation’s population could elect a majority of senators. By 2040, the 15 most populous states will be home to 67% of Americans yet represented by just 30% of the Senate. Add up the actual votes received in the winning election of every sitting US senator, and Republicans haven’t won a senate majority since the mid-1990s. Yet they’ve controlled the Senate for 10 of the last 20 years, and used that advantage to shape the ideological balance on the federal courts.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/07/us-democracy-trump-election-gerrymandering

That is in 45 minutes ?

Yes

 

[Farm Boy]

Yeah, I'm also going to go with Nate Silver is just one more guy with a cult. Not that this makes any friends.

In keeping with my finest contributions in any political thread:

The quest for fiddly foods that take a while to eat so it slows my lard butt down on consumption... I've delved into soft boiled eggs. Yes yes, I know I know. But I figure the male quotient here is high enough I won't get mocked too hard for ineptitude. I'm better at baking than cooking. Those eggs are fussier than I thought! I've got the timing down(not too hard, set a timer) and the ice quench down(not too hard, so long as your family does't clean out the trays without refilling), but I'm actually going to have to start measuring out how much boiling water per egg, I think, in order to control for the temperature dip when they go into the roiling boil. But having fun! I found a little spoon and everything. I feel so fancyass scooping that slurry out like some monocled baron and dipping in the toast. Bestest best part? Sooperdooper cheap!

 

[Hrothbern]

Trump is going to have a press conference at 11am ET.

Is that a press conference of Trump ?
or his lawyers ?

 

[Zelig]

Fortunately, politicians up here in Canada tend to be more boring speakers, wouldn't you say?

I really enjoyed Harper's complete lack of charisma or charm in favour of policy.

That might help with the virus but would you trust that mob to be otherwise clean?

I expect they pay people to do the cleaning for them. Their sense of style that has afflicted the past term of design and renos at the White House is likely to be more problematic.

Unfortunately, the congressional map is so heavily gerrymandered and the structure of the EC and the Senate are so right-leaning by default that they really have no choice but to go after those rural votes. I read an article that it is possible for the GOP to control the Senate with states equaling a population of only 17 million compared to 300+ million total people in the US.

Or convince people from California to move to rural areas where their votes are useful.

 

[Farm Boy]

It's been a thing for years, people haven't been paying attention. Capital is fleeing California and gentrifying the West faster than anywhere in the country. That gets hidden because capital also accumulates where it's leaving at the same time relatively quickly.

Not quite yuppies anymore get a lot of bang for their buck with crappy paid line cooks in Red areas providing them with food taxed at Red rates driving around on Red fuel-taxed roads. They gobble it up man. Not a surprise. Who needs to go international?

 

[hobbsyoyo]

In Pennsylvania, one big reason why no network is calling the state is that there are still 100k uncounted provisional ballots which could theoretically tip the result if they break one way or the other. Provisional ballots are cast on the day of election and in-person, and since the overall in-person vote went mostly to Trump, theoretically the provisional ballots could tip toward him. We have seen in rural counties that have counted these ballots that they were about 5-10% more in Trump's favor than the rest of the in-person votes.

This helps Trump potentially narrow Biden's lead but would still be short of giving him the flip at that rate.

Additionally, a bit of counting has been done of Philly's provisional ballots and these have gone to Biden by a 50% margin, which undermines the entire Trump upset scenario. Moreover, provisional ballots in normal elections tend to break Democratic as a rule which also goes against the Trump upset scenario. And not all provisional ballots will be accepted either, further reducing the overall ability of Trump to upset based on the raw numbers of provisional ballots.

Bottom line: Networks are in full cover their ass mode - Biden has clearly won.

 

[Zelig]

A Large Portion of the Electorate Chose the Sociopath

"Sadly, the voters who said in 2016 that they chose Trump because they thought he was “just like them” turned out to be right. Now, by picking him again, those voters are showing that they are just like him: angry, spoiled, racially resentful, aggrieved, and willing to die rather than ever admit that they were wrong."

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Is that a press conference of Trump ?
or his lawyers ?

Trump himself

Edit: actually unclear, may just be his lawyers

 

[Ajidica]

I think the 2022 Democrats need to focus on winning the rural vote and pushing for a high turnout. Given they probably won't succeed on the turnout front, they've got to find a way to reach rural voters on the issues they care about without pushing the social issues too far as that seems to really alienate them.

I don't think it is possible for the Democrats to win the rural vote, barring any unique factors like college town or demographics. The Democrat brand is just too toxic. No matter how much rural areas say they aren't interested in a culture war and just want rural healthcare and economic development (and how many urban/suburban Democrats are going to say no to increased health care spending to win votes?); those areas consistently vote against Democrats offering such things and vote for the party least open to such policies. Rather than organize and pressure their congresscritters into taking action on rural healthcare and economic development, it really seems to me rural areas are content to whine about culture war issues and how those darn Democrats don't represent my interests.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Arizona announced we will get the last major batch of votes from Maricopa county in Arizon in about half an hour. They have about 92k votes left to count which is about half of AZ's total. If this batch follows the latest trends, it should be enough for other networks to call Arizona. I predicted yesterday that as soon as other networks call Arizona, Fox and AP will call Nevada and the whole election.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Trump himself

Edit: actually unclear, may just be his lawyers

His lawyers.
Outside a garden centre.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Not sure why they are holding it there.
Does nobody want to lend them a room?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-...nsylvania-watch-live-stream-today-2020-11-07/

 

[hobbsyoyo]

There was a drop of votes from conservative Pinal county in AZ ahead of the Maricopa drop. These votes did break for Trump at a rate that would allow Trump to overtake Biden, but that trend has not so far applied to much larger Maricopa. The Pinal drop only gave Trump a net of 2k votes and he's still down by 28k across the state.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

A drop from Yuma county Arizona broke for Biden at 52 / 47%, re-increasing his lead in AZ by a tad.