2020 US Election (Part One)

[Kyriakos]

The fact that this is true demonstrates what is absolutely rotten at the core of Sanders' "movement." It is a totally pure cult of personality. Say something bad about the divine Bernie and even though what is said may or may not be true and the person saying it is actually more of a champion for all the causes that the movement is supposedly about and the cult will just condemn you out of hand.

Idk, some see it as honest respect

 

[Rashiminos]

*cough* Sanders supporters can't be sexist *cough*

 

[Hrothbern]

Funny how this was so true in California too...until it wasn't. That institutional power only goes so far once the majority tilts against it.

In how far did the end of the Cold War played a role in California.?
Much of the military-industrial economics disappearing, (white traditional GOP) workers moving away as well.
The Renaissance of the Dem's starts during the 90ies.

 

[DJNotNice]

Funny how this was so true in California too...until it wasn't. That institutional power only goes so far once the majority tilts against it.

Looking at California's general election history, the longest streak of Republican victories was 6 straight...2 of which were Reagan (home state advantage). Are you gonna tell me the state that birthed the gay rights movement and Hollywood has the same political sensibilities as the state whose most famous landmark commemorates the defense of slavery?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

In how far did the end of the Cold War played a role in California.?
Much of the military-industrial economics disappearing, (white traditional GOP) workers moving away as well.
The Renaissance of the Dem's starts during the 90ies.

Those voters didn't really move away so much as they became disillusioned, in the genuine sense, with the GOP. The defense industry provided the highest paying, most secure jobs that the manufacturing sector could ever produce. Those people had the surest possible sense that the whole GOP rap about how they should protect the rights and property of the wealthy because one day they would be wealthy themselves was really true. The end of the cold war broke them, and the fact that they had opposed every possible safety net that could help them was a brutal revelation. That's what flipped California blue.

 

[Farm Boy]

The Renaissance of the Dem's starts during the 90ies.

I would have said that's about when they got significantly harder to tell apart from the Rs of my childhood, who were already at least somewhat Carterized. Money money, left coast and global trade. Thank you Nixon, I think. Which, let's be real, is a significantly bigger shift than which little farty animal they put on the buttons.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Looking at California's general election history, the longest streak of Republican victories was 6 straight...2 of which were Reagan (home state advantage). Are you gonna tell me the state that birthed the gay rights movement and Hollywood has the same political sensibilities as the state whose most famous landmark commemorates the defense of slavery?

Yeah...home state...where he was GOVERNOR. If you want to convince yourself "oh, California was never a Republican stronghold" just because you think history only started when you got old enough to pay attention that's your prerogative.

 

[Traitorfish]

The fact that this is true demonstrates what is absolutely rotten at the core of Sanders' "movement." It is a totally pure cult of personality. Say something bad about the divine Bernie and even though what is said may or may not be true and the person saying it is actually more of a champion for all the causes that the movement is supposedly about and the cult will just condemn you out of hand.

Are you really so resigned to voting people for people you regard as personally despicable that somebody presenting a politician as basically decent is an inherently suspicious act?

 

[DJNotNice]

So if California is a historic bastion of the Republican party and Bernie won by a lot there, does that mean he actually has great crossover appeal?

 

[IglooDame]

Yeah...home state...where he was GOVERNOR. If you want to convince yourself "oh, California was never a Republican stronghold" just because you think history only started when you got old enough to pay attention that's your prerogative.

Republican governors are not exactly ensuring Massachusetts stays in the red column, though, as another example. Deval Patrick has been the only Dem governor since Dukakis, and for decades prior to that it flipped back and forth with remarkable regularity.

 

[Lexicus]

Yes, the black robes holding court are totally going to vacate their benches and prostrate themselves to Big T. It hasn't happened yet, but if he appoints enough they're totally going to forget oath and country to lionize such a model statesman.

It's already happened several times, to the point that one of the other Justices accused the 5 conservatives of being blatantly biased toward Trump.

And the Supreme Court already stole an election for a Republican candidate who likely lost it. It happened in 2000.

I must have missed you saying it before because I would like to talk about it. There will be some form of a power grab at this election, even if Trump is totally wiped out. It may not stick, but I expect at the very least that pockets of his diehard supporters will attempt to disrupt voting and he will claim the election is rigged.

I also think the possibility that he will go beyond calling the election rigged and make an outright play to stay in power is on the table. I think McConnell would side with him and I expect the GOP members of the House to participate. I also think it not unlikely that the Roberts court would legitimize the move (if successful) after the fact.

Well then it's 2016 all over again but this time maybe we'll get a candidate that appeals to older folk.

More or less, this. My concern is more that with Barr in charge of the Justice Department and a conservative majority on the Supreme Court in the post-Shelby County world there is no check on any shenanigans by Republicans at the state level.

Most concerning is this passage from a recent Atlantic piece:

When Trump launched his campaign, he was suspected of seeking only to enrich himself. The point of the presidency was more high-paying guests at the Trump International Hotel, down the street from the White House. If Trump’s tax returns and financial records are ever made public, we’ll know just how much the presidency was worth to him.

But Trump’s ambitions have swelled since the election. He hasn’t crushed the independence of the Justice Department simply to be able to squeeze more money out of his businesses. Financial self-interest “is why he ran,” Fred Wertheimer, of Democracy 21, says. “But power is a drug. Power is an addiction—exercising power, flying around in Air Force One, having motorcades, having people salute you. He thinks he is the country.”

There is actual psychological research demonstrating the effects of exercising power on the brain...and it's extremely worrisome.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

So if California is a historic bastion of the Republican party and Bernie won by a lot there, does that mean he actually has great crossover appeal?

No, it means that the historic bastion has fallen and been completely eradicated over the course of about three decades. Prior to that three decade long process of eradication the GOP controlled at least one and often both senate seats, a large portion of the House delegation, the governor's office, and the state legislature most of the time for the previous fifty years.

My point is that flipping Texas may not be as far removed as you think, and that thirty years after it happens people might very well be saying "Wut? Texas used to be Republican? Nahhhhh, that just can't be."

 

[luiz]

In how far did the end of the Cold War played a role in California.?
Much of the military-industrial economics disappearing, (white traditional GOP) workers moving away as well.
The Renaissance of the Dem's starts during the 90ies.

Looking at California's general election history, the longest streak of Republican victories was 6 straight...2 of which were Reagan (home state advantage). Are you gonna tell me the state that birthed the gay rights movement and Hollywood has the same political sensibilities as the state whose most famous landmark commemorates the defense of slavery?

Those voters didn't really move away so much as they became disillusioned, in the genuine sense, with the GOP. The defense industry provided the highest paying, most secure jobs that the manufacturing sector could ever produce. Those people had the surest possible sense that the whole GOP rap about how they should protect the rights and property of the wealthy because one day they would be wealthy themselves was really true. The end of the cold war broke them, and the fact that they had opposed every possible safety net that could help them was a brutal revelation. That's what flipped California blue.

How do white Californians vote nowadays?
Didn't it rather turn blue because it went in just a few decades from 80% white to minority-majority? And the biggest minority in Cali (Mexicans) votes Dem in the US. Seems to be the same driving force making Texas purple.

 

[Lexicus]

No, it means that the historic bastion has fallen and been completely eradicated over the course of about three decades. Prior to that three decade long process of eradication the GOP controlled at least one and often both senate seats, a large portion of the House delegation, the governor's office, and the state legislature most of the time for the previous fifty years.

My point is that flipping Texas may not be as far removed as you think, and that thirty years after it happens people might very well be saying "Wut? Texas used to be Republican? Nahhhhh, that just can't be."

I think your predictions of this type underestimate both the degree of negative partisanship that now defines voting patterns nationally, and the complete lack of scruple on the Republican side to subvert democracy and prevent people from voting.

 

[Gorbles]

The fact that this is true demonstrates what is absolutely rotten at the core of Sanders' "movement." It is a totally pure cult of personality. Say something bad about the divine Bernie and even though what is said may or may not be true and the person saying it is actually more of a champion for all the causes that the movement is supposedly about and the cult will just condemn you out of hand.

If you think that Warren, or any public representative with enough visibility, doesn't have a similar demographic, I don't know what to say.

I mean, I get the criticism of toxic Bernie supporters, but this just seems to tie in to a specifically anti-Sanders bent, rather than a look at how polarising centrist and centre-left (*) candidates in the US election are.

* relative to most political spectrums outside of the US, sorry, I'm a Brit.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

How do white Californians vote nowadays?

Predominantly Democrat. The only Republican strongholds left are places the defense industry survived (I live in one of those) and the rural sticks towns where the people are still Republicans...all five of them.

I think your predictions of this type underestimate both the degree of negative partisanship that now defines voting patterns nationally, and the complete lack of scruple on the Republican side to subvert democracy and prevent people from voting.

The majority of unscrupulous GOP shenanigans playing out across the country now originated with the Republican Party of California as the state was flipping thirty years ago. As Roy of the RIPD would say "we invented this ____."

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If you think that Warren, or any public representative with enough visibility, doesn't have a similar demographic, I don't know what to say.

I mean, I get the criticism of toxic Bernie supporters, but this just seems to tie in to a specifically anti-Sanders bent, rather than a look at how polarising centrist and centre-left (*) candidates in the US election are.

* relative to most political spectrums outside of the US, sorry, I'm a Brit.

Refer this post.

I watched Biden make a speech to his supporters at the end of the long day, and watched Sanders make a speech to his. Then a very clever talking head summarized them both in one sentence. "Biden is running to run against Donald Trump, Sanders is running to beat Joe Biden." The hostility towards everyone 'not us' rolling back and forth between Sanders and his followers was palpable, even through the TV. Biden had not a harsh word to say about anyone but Donald Trump. I think when the clear majority of the voters openly state that their number one issue is getting Trump out of office that is an appropriate place to focus.

 

[Farm Boy]

Predominantly Democrat. The only Republican strongholds left are places the defense industry survived (I live in one of those) and the rural sticks towns where the people are still Republicans...all five of them.


The majority of unscrupulous GOP shenanigans playing out across the country now originated with the Republican Party of California as the state was flipping thirty years ago. As Roy of the RIPD would say "we invented this ____."

If the reward at the end is a monolithic giant like the IL Democratic Party you seem to have admired so much and its hordes, maybe the shenanigans can be justified unscrupulous and all.

 

[Traitorfish]

"Biden is running against Trump, Sanders is running against Biden" suggests that, of the two, only Sanders understand that he has to win a primary before he can proceed to the general. It doesn't seem intuitive to take this as an indicator of Biden's superior political cunning.

 

[Birdjaguar]

But what do I know?

Exactly.