2020 US Election (Part One)

[Commodore]

To give the guy credit, his ads were strong. He had some of the best poli-ops in the game working for him and making those. They hit hard.

I think he spammed them too much though. At least in Ohio he did. His ads were everywhere to the point that everyone just got sick of hearing his name.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I think he spammed them too much though. At least in Ohio he did. His ads were everywhere to the point that everyone just got sick of hearing his name.

Maybe. Oversaturation is always a debated topic.

 

[Takhisis]

Hilary outspent Trump

That's an accounting trick. Fox News was very much a part of the Trump campaign in 2016, they just didn't bill him because they recouped their losses elsewhere.

 

[IglooDame]

I know that she had no campaign there. She could barely afford to campaign on her own block.

Oh, I get that, but... she's Samoan. Not even just 'Polynesian'. And it's (looks it up) 55000 inhabitants.

 

[Zardnaar]

Oh, I get that, but... she's Samoan. Not even just 'Polynesian'. And it's (looks it up) 55000 inhabitants.

Sigh Polynesians are like anyone else. They're not automatically going to vote for another Polynesian just because they're a Polynesian.

 

[Traitorfish]

In limited numbers, generally consisting of the more mature and leaving the disillusioned youth to grow into it.

Do you imagine that enough of them will behave that way, for long enough? Your gambling that people will develop a very specific balance of cynicism and civic duty, but you don't even have a plan for cultivating this, you just expect it will happen spontaneously. That is not a program designed to last.

A lot of polling does seem to suggest that there is significant crossover between Biden and Sanders supporters, i.e. they are each the second-choice of many of their voters. You are right that it's more than just the "die-hard Sanders activists", but it's also not every Sanders supporter who distrusts or hates "the establishment". Or perhaps more importantly, not every Sanders supporters would define "the establishment" in the same way.

On the one hand, that speaks to Sanders's ability to increase support amongst people not already supporting him; on the other hand, it indicates that Sanders losing would not be as disastrous for the party as you are suggesting.

I should clarify, I'm not suggesting that Sanders is uniquely able to deliver this section of the electorate in the general. I'm responding to Tim's insinuation that the hostility of the Sanders camp to Biden is some sort of absurd rhetorical gamble on Sanders' part, that the identification of Biden as somebody opposed to the interest of working class Americans is a smear originating in the Sanders campaign headquarters. In reality, it is a conclusion which millions of people have arrived at wholly independently of Sanders' campaign, and would continue to hold in its absence.

This is a problem for the Democratic Party leadership, and one which they appear to have no idea how to address, if they even comprehend that it is a problem. Sanders is not a problem for the "party unity" line because he has introduced some new fractures into the Democratic coalition, but because he has drawn attention to fractures which already exist.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Do you imagine that enough of them will behave that way, for long enough? Your gambling that people will develop a very specific balance of cynicism and civic duty, but you don't even have a plan for cultivating this, you just expect it will happen spontaneously. That is not a program designed to last.

I'm not expecting it to happen spontaneously, I've been watching it happen for decades. There is always some messianic leader of "the youth movement." They are always being scoffed at by the victims of previous youth movements.

I should clarify, I'm not suggesting that Sanders is uniquely able to deliver this section of the electorate in the general. I'm responding to Tim's insinuation that the hostility of the Sanders camp to Biden is some sort of absurd rhetorical gamble on Sanders' part, that the identification of Biden as somebody opposed to the interest of working class Americans is a smear originating in the Sanders campaign headquarters. In reality, it is a conclusion which millions of people have arrived at wholly independently of Sanders' campaign, and would continue to hold in its absence.

Perhaps if you considered what I actually say instead of digging out what I am purportedly insinuating we'd be having a conversation you would find more productive.

This is a problem for the Democratic Party leadership, and one which they appear to have no idea how to address, if they even comprehend that it is a problem. Sanders is not a problem for the "party unity" line because he has introduced some new fractures into the Democratic coalition, but because he has drawn attention to fractures which already exist.

And have always existed. And have always been known to exist. Thanks for the alert, Bernie. Want a lollipop?

 

[Traitorfish]

I'm not expecting it to happen spontaneously, I've been watching it happen for decades. There is always some messianic leader of "the youth movement." They are always being scoffed at by the victims of previous youth movements.

If it's been happening for decades, then why couldn't the Democratic Party win an election against a clownish television personality? Why couldn't they defeat a warmongering ape, a senile cowboy, or a sweating, greasy liar? If your program for the long-term viability of the Democratic Party is the good sense of the middle aged, then why is this so difficult to discover in the actual behaviour of American voters?

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If it's been happening for decades, then why couldn't the Democratic Party win an election against a clownish television personality? Why couldn't they defeat a warmongering ape, a senile cowboy, or a sweating, greasy liar? If your program for the long-term viability of the Democratic Party is the good sense of the middle aged, then why is this so difficult to discover in the actual behaviour of American voters?

Because when the youth movement was actually allowed to have their messianic candidate on the ballot in November he got crushed...by Richard freakin' Nixon no less. So guess what, 'just do whatever they say so the youth will turn out to vote' is not a cure all.

 

[Birdjaguar]

If it's been happening for decades, then why couldn't the Democratic Party win an election against a clownish television personality? Why couldn't they defeat a warmongering ape, a senile cowboy, or a sweating, greasy liar? If your program for the long-term viability of the Democratic Party is the good sense of the middle aged, then why is this so difficult to discover in the actual behaviour of American voters?

Hillary Rodam Clinton; she did win the popular vote but ran a bad campaign in the Midwest.

 

[Zardnaar]

If it's been happening for decades, then why couldn't the Democratic Party win an election against a clownish television personality? Why couldn't they defeat a warmongering ape, a senile cowboy, or a sweating, greasy liar? If your program for the long-term viability of the Democratic Party is the good sense of the middle aged, then why is this so difficult to discover in the actual behaviour of American voters?

America trends right on a lot of things.

The Democratic liberals got annihilated in the 70s and Reagan finished them off. Biden and Pelosi remember this.

The Democrats trended to the middle because they had to. Tyet were essentially licked out of power for 25 years with a small blip with Carter.

A big reason the GoP hates Clinton was because he won. They got used to winning for a generation.

You're about 8-12 years short if a progressive liberal being able to run and win. If Texas, Florida or Ohio flips reliably that's about when a progressive stands a chance.

The Democrats haven't recovered from the ass kicking they got 4 decades ago. Obama never really rebuilt to local organizations as they gave up in red States.

Some if those red States have a purple shade to them and some purple states are becoming blue.

 

[Ironsided]

No, it’s more like professional wrestling. The DNC and the RNC pretend to compete and hate each other but are both payed by the same people, laugh, hug and make fun of the same audience backstage. It’s a show for idiots. In comes Bernie and threaten the circus and the wrestling audience go nuts – they want their illusion back.

 

[Zardnaar]

No, it’s more like professional wrestling. The DNC and the RNC pretend to compete and hate each other but are both payed by the same people, laugh, hug and make fun of the same audience backstage. It’s a show for idiots. In comes Bernie and threaten the circus and the wrestling audience go nuts – they want their illusion back.

Used to be like that, not in the Trump era and not since Bush II.

 

[Takhisis]

That's an accounting trick. Fox News was very much a part of the Trump campaign in 2016, they just didn't bill him because they recouped their losses elsewhere.

And I do mean elsewhere, i.e. the rise of the nationalist international synergically emboldens both the Trumpists and Brexit. The latter results in a bunch of Conservative maniacs deciding to scrap the BBC and replacing it with Fox and others.

 

[Estebonrober]

RIP Warren's candidacy, still the only one I've actually contributed to to this day. I will vote for Sanders like I did in 2016 in the primary and I will vote for a wet dog with a D next to its name for RBG's scotus seat.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/04/8079...e-supreme-court-weighs-louisiana-abortion-law

I should note I'm personally against abortion, but its not for me to tell anyone else how to handle this imo. I'm definitely against this SCOTUS and frankly even Biden will do better on that front then Trump. The great trick the GOP has ever pulled has been to use the courts to legislate into oblivion the federal and state governments while convincing people its the dems legislating from the bench.

 

[cardgame]

Used to be like that, not in the Trump era and not since Bush II.

Pelosi still signed Trump's bills

 

[Kaitzilla]

A take on the winner of the American Samoa primary:

What Bloomberg's $500m could have bought instead
The former New York mayor could have paid off student loans for 150,000 people or bought houses for 2,200 homeless people

There wasn’t much good news on Super Tuesday for the more progressive wing of the Democratic party, save for one lesson: money on its own, mercifully, cannot, as of yet, buy an entire election.

That’s the lesson many drew from the failure of billionaire Mike Bloomberg, who had hoped spending a half billion sliver of his massive fortune on an ad buy and staffing a national campaign might make inroads against former vice-president Joe Biden for the battle of the centrists.

But Bloomberg’s announcement today that he will be dropping out means the more than $500m he spent was wasted on nothing. Unless you count his sole win in American Samoa.

Wasted is a relative term of course, because for a man reportedly worth over $60b, $500m to him is practically nothing. For everyone else it’s still, well, $500m, and that has prompted some to wonder what good that kind of money could have done spent elsewhere.

Here are some places he might have better spent the cash dump:

Clearing medical debt
According to RIP Medical Debt, a group who purchases medical debt in bulk, every $100 donated can alleviate $10,000 in oppressive medical bills. 66% of all US bankruptcies are tied to medical debt issues they say. So far they’ve eliminated around $1.3bn in medical debt, but doing some quick math, if Bloomberg had chipped in what he spent on the campaign that might have alleviated … $500bn in debt. Sadly and sickeningly that’s not enough to clear everyone’s tab in America, but it’s pretty close, and good enough to change hundreds of thousands of lives over night. Alas.

Cleaning up Flint
For around 1/10 of what he spent on getting embarrassed in front of the world, Bloomberg also could have replaced all of the old lead pipes in Flint, Michigan, then had hundreds of millions left over to pull every citizen there – or in many other cities – out of poverty. It’s a point that many made when the campaign complained about their headquarters there being lightly vandalized last month.

Pay off student debt
While $500m might be a drop in the bucket of the $1.4tn owed in student loan debt in America, with an average outstanding loan of around $37,000, that’s roughly 150,000 people whose lives the former New York City mayor could have transformed for the better. Think about all the good all those people unshackled at once from their predatory student loans might go on to do.

House the homeless
With a reported 60,000-80,000 people living unhoused in New York City, his hometown, Bloomberg certainly would have had to lay out a bit more than $500m to give them all homes, certainly in one of the most expensive cities in the country, but with an average home price across the US of about $226,000 that’s well over 2,200 people he could have simply purchased a home for. Just like that. Here’s a house. It’s all yours now. He’d barely even notice the money was gone.

Restore voting rights to felons
As an ardent believer in democracy, Bloomberg is no doubt aggrieved by Florida Republicans’ efforts to reverse engineer a poll tax against the will of the voters, making it harder for felons to vote. Bloomberg could make a huge dent in the hundreds of millions outstanding, restoring the right to vote to thousands, or alternatively, he might have funded any number of campaigns against Republicans in the state actively working to disenfranchise its own citizens. His call, really!​

If only Bloomberg had hired the Russians from 2016, he could have bought this election for a few $100,000.

 

[Zardnaar]

Pelosi still signed Trump's bills

You kind of have to for the day to day stuff. Did she sign off on his tax cut?

You also have to pick and choose your fights. Government shutdowns for example not good.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Pelosi still signed Trump's bills

She also signs off on any bill passed by the house. Oh wait... I don't think Pelosi was speaker of the house when the tax bill went through the House.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Because when the youth movement was actually allowed to have their messianic candidate on the ballot in November he got crushed...by Richard freakin' Nixon no less. So guess what, 'just do whatever they say so the youth will turn out to vote' is not a cure all.

This analysis completely falls apart this century.

Kerry and Hillary lost
Obama won

It's not that simple