Political Prediction Thread

In June, the UK votes to stay in the EU by 55% to 45% with a turnout of 60%. (With a margin of error of +/- 2.5%)

I predict that my prediction will probably be wrong, though.

And maybe the UK will vote to come out but be asked to vote again almost immediately.
 
Newbie Trump wrests the Party's "Amen,"
Gathers White, aggrieved, Christian men
In a broad coalition
(A Grand Old tradition)
With aggrieved, White, Christian men.

The American people (who knew?)
Then turn out to include women too,
Blacks, Hispanics and Asians,
All religious persuasions.
Even unaggrieved White men (a few).

I'll leave doing the math up to you.
 
:thumbsup:
 
Trump will be assassinated sometime before the Republican convention. :sniper:
[He has pissed off too many very rich, very powerful, very ruthless people.]

Whomever is arrested and convicted of the assassination, will not be the true killer.

This is wishful thinking. People in the developed world don't really do political assassinations anymore. It's far easier and far more effective to engage in character assassination rather than actual assassination.
 
Trump does not get the nomination. He founds the Freedom Party, though is kept off the ballot in a few states with sore loser laws.

Or

Trump gets the nomination and the #NeverTrump people over at national review draft a less dangerous candidate.

Hillary wins in November. Sanders becomes a statesman-like figure for the left and has considerable influence. Left-leaning organizations pour over the data from the primary and identify districts where progressive candidates could win.
 
This is wishful thinking. People in the developed world don't really do political assassinations anymore. It's far easier and far more effective to engage in character assassination rather than actual assassination.

Wallace was only fifty years ago, Reagan less than that. Times don't change that fast.

Or did you mean "people in the developed world aren't really very good shots anymore"?
 
Wallace was only fifty years ago, Reagan less than that. Times don't change that fast.

Or did you mean "people in the developed world aren't really very good shots anymore"?

Nah, more like people in the developed world are too lazy and unmotivated to develop an assassination plan that actually has a chance at succeeding.
 
Nah, more like people in the developed world are too lazy and unmotivated to develop an assassination plan that actually has a chance at succeeding.

If the plan is sufficient to get a bullet in the guy, it is sufficient to succeed. A little better aim or a little better luck would have done the trick in either case.

*better luck on the part of the shooter, obviously, with better being purely subjective.
 
If the plan is sufficient to get a bullet in the guy, it is sufficient to succeed. A little better aim or a little better luck would have done the trick in either case.

#better luck on the part of the shooter, obviously, with better being purely subjective.

Planning an assassination is hard work though. You have to collect intelligence on your target, case locations, come up with a plan to circumvent security, and possibly come up with both ingress and egress routes. That's too much work for the average couch potato that complains about the country, yet can't even be arsed to get out and vote.
 
Pistol carrying drones.
 
Trump's candidacy is one of the very rare situations in which I could actually imagine an assassination conspiracy happening. Character assassination doesn't seem to work - he's already running a very crude campaign, and none of his supporters seem to mind his business failures, at least one outright fraud, multiple marriages all to actresses and supermodels, and so on. He stands to cause people to suffer losses (e.g. from protectionist policies) if he becomes president, and cause significant damage to the GOP and aligned interests even if he doesn't. His candidacy is a cult of personality - if he were eliminated, his support wouldn't likely shift to someone equally problematic for vested interests in the short term (Cruz for instance is much more business-friendly).

Not that I think a Trump assassination is likely, but unlike any other presidential candidate we've seen in a very long time, it would actually make some sense for someone ruthless/reckless enough to try.

The other type of political assassination that would make sense in the US is if someone aligned with one side shot Supreme Court justice(s) they disagreed with while a president of their preferred party was in office with a friendly Senate. We've not seen that yet, nor do I know of any serious attempts either.
 
Trump's candidacy is one of the very rare situations in which I could actually imagine an assassination conspiracy happening. Character assassination doesn't seem to work - he's already running a very crude campaign, and none of his supporters seem to mind his business failures, at least one outright fraud, multiple marriages all to actresses and supermodels, and so on. He stands to cause people to suffer losses (e.g. from protectionist policies) if he becomes president, and cause significant damage to the GOP and aligned interests even if he doesn't. His candidacy is a cult of personality - if he were eliminated, his support wouldn't likely shift to someone equally problematic for vested interests in the short term (Cruz for instance is much more business-friendly).

This makes me wonder: If Trump did get elected, would we see a Republican Congress that is actually less cooperative with a Republican president than they would be with a Democratic president?
 
I fully agree, he will be next John Kennedy. Hawks cannot stand his independency. BTW its still better have bad business experience than none.

I was thinking who is most similiar to Trump and its actually Czech president:)

https://www.rt.com/news/330692-trump-zeman-so-similar/

Even in this context referring to Drumpf as "the next Kennedy" is disgusting. The Kennedy assassination was a national tragedy. While I'm not in favor of it, an assassination of Drumpf would probably be beneficial to the nation. There might be some minor unrest if it happened, but when he eventually loses there will be a number of his rabid believers who claim "stolen" and try to "elect" him by force. The angst over an assassination would be comparatively mild.
 
Even in this context referring to Drumpf as "the next Kennedy" is disgusting. The Kennedy assassination was a national tragedy. While I'm not in favor of it, an assassination of Drumpf would probably be beneficial to the nation. There might be some minor unrest if it happened, but when he eventually loses there will be a number of his rabid believers who claim "stolen" and try to "elect" him by force. The angst over an assassination would be comparatively mild.

Oh come now Tim, you know it's going to be fun watching the riot police and possibly National Guard put down those riots.
 
Oh come now Tim, you know it's going to be fun watching the riot police and possibly National Guard put down those riots.

Well, yeah, I am looking forward to it...but from a "benefit to the nation" standpoint avoiding them may be better.
 
Isn't this fun? This is so fun isn't it?
 
I'd much rather Drumpf be the next William Henry Harrison than the next John Fitzgerald Kennedy. Kennedy became a sort of martyr through his violent death and probably helped get more of his supporters' policies passed dead than he could have alive. Harrison is largely forgotten, and did not have time to do much damage as president before dying of natural causes.
 
Can we get back to predictions and move the assassination talk to the clown car thread, please.
 
Predictions...

For the US, because no one else will dare make it: you'll have a Trump vs. Sanders election, Sanders wins.

In Europe the UK leaves the EU, Finland leaves the Euro, the french and the germans try to block them, and shortly after Italy, Greece, Spain, the Dutch, etc all leave. The EU becomes an outright franco-german alliance with a few protectorates hanging on. Its economy sinks and a year later Le Pen becomes president of France and what remained breaks apart. And the left in France still won't get why they were crushed. In the rest of Western Europe they do get it and get elected with an agenda to actually change things, going back to the post WW2 social-democracy. Le Pen leads a populist government but the more right-wing portion of her party discovers they can't actually apply fascism to france because the french won't have it and they do get nasty when they're pissed; the Front National shifts to the centre.

In the UK the SNP makes a play at independence again when the UK leaves the EU, but fails and comes away with a bad reputation. Corbyn gets elected PM in the next general election, riding on the new mood in Europe. He calls a referendum on a constitution for the UK, that will include a bill of rights and abolish the house of lords (but retain the monarchy, because Elizabeth is still alive and kicking).

Worldwide economic crisis hits Turkey and saps president Erdogan's remaining popularity. He gambles for civil war against the kurds to unite the country and fails. Some generals finally kill him out of despair, and it turns out that he had no supporters left. The military take power and after a brief interregnum hold new elections and set to repair Turkey's diplomatic position in the world.

Oil prices remain low and it becomes obvious that Saudi Arabia's finances will never recover. The royals start moving their money to china, the safest country they can find. This and the stress of a failed war in Yemen precipitates rebellions in the country. The US under the new presidency sees no future in the Saud regime any longer, will rather support a 'nationalist' revolutionary from among the army for the sake of stability there. It becomes a repressive military dictatorship but at least stops exporting islamic fanaticism. The rest of the Middle east starts to quiet down finally. The chinese arrest the saudi princelings and hand them over to the new authorities in order to improve relations. Their money they took is never found (or rather, no one admits to it).

Israel annexes the west bank and cuts a deal with Egypt to formally return Gaza. Many palestinians are pushed out after a new wave of terror unleashed by the Israeli state, and join the mass migrations of refugees that had Iraq and Syria. Europe is too busy breaking itself apart to notice, Sanders pretends he doesn't notice, and the thing is finally done: peace on Israel's terms, the "Greater Israel"... Apartheid remains in place for those who weren't killed and didn't flee, but they're a clear minority. Israel's economy suffers with the war and the worldwide hostility that never goes away, and without the "enemy at the gates" it loses what remained of a sense of community. Large numbers of its better educated jewish citizens start leaving. Most of the palestinian diaspora resettle in Europe and north america eventually, and never forget. The tables turn in the game for the promised land...

After the breakup of the EU Ukraine is left to hang by its western allies, its economy gets to a point where people can't take it any more. The central european countries fear being invaded by a horde of ukranian refugees and get on with more fence-building. A counter coup with russian support changes the government in Ukraine yet again, and the new government changes the country to a federation. The government remains corrupt, but the civil war ends and they manage to rebuild. Russia keeps Crimea. Some people in europea talk about new sanctions but what the governments want desperately is to get rid of all the old sanctions in order to have their farmers and businessmen start selling to Russia again.
The georgians government takes the opportunity to make noise about having portions of their country occupied by russian-backed rebels and manages to cut a deal on the same terms as Ukraine: some constitutional reform and the russians pull out.
Every country's government claims diplomatic victory.

if we're going to make predictions they may as well be about interesting times.
 
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