Political Prediction Thread

[Hygro]

Where's Archbob for the Putin-Obama-Trump cagematch FFA?

 

[Gori the Grey]

It seems a stark choice of direction.
But I'll predict this, on reflection:
Those who made more
Money before
Will make more money post the election.

 

[Zkribbler]

Planning an assassination is hard work though. You have to collect intelligence on your target, case locations, come up with a plan to circumvent security, and possibly come up with both ingress and egress routes. That's too much work for the average couch potato that complains about the country, yet can't even be arsed to get out and vote.

I'm not talking about couch potatoes. I'm talking about billionaire kingmakers who have access to professional hit men. Trump is sticking his thumb in their collective eye. I think one of them may seek to put him in his place.

I can see a snatch happening to the family of one of Trump's security guards. "If you want your wife and kids to live, then kill Trump." It's what President Marcos did to Aquino.

 

[Zkribbler]

Wallace was only fifty years ago, Reagan less than that.

Don't forget John Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Bobby Kennedy, Malcolm X, John Gotti, Jimmy Hoffa and Lord Mountbatten.

 

[danjuno]

HRC wins without Florida and maybe Ohio. Bernie Sanders quietly endorses Clinton when she hits 2383 delegates, then spends the rest of the campaign ignoring her while campaigning for progressive congressional candidates. Democrats retake the Senate with 50 or 51 Seats and roll back the Republican house majority by a dozen or so seats. Drumpf supporters commit acts of violence repeatedly throughout her first term, further damaging conservatism. Hillary, meanwhile, turns her back on economic progressives and nothing changes from the last 8 years.

 

[Commodore]

I'm not talking about couch potatoes. I'm talking about billionaire kingmakers who have access to professional hit men. Trump is sticking his thumb in their collective eye. I think one of them may seek to put him in his place.

I can see a snatch happening to the family of one of Trump's security guards. "If you want your wife and kids to live, them kill Trump." It's what President Marcos did to Aquino.

But the billionaire kingmakers have nothing to gain from killing him and everything to lose. It would be far easier for them to bribe a Republican Congress to give Trump the same amount of crap (if not more) they are giving Obama, thus preventing Trump from making good on his promises and making him the first one term president since Bush Sr.

And that's even if he wins the presidency. I'm sure those billionaire kingmakers are doing everything they can to stop Trump from getting elected. Hell, they'll probably even back Hillary since they know she'll play ball with them.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

But the billionaire kingmakers have nothing to gain from killing him and everything to lose. It would be far easier for them to bribe a Republican Congress to give Trump the same amount of crap (if not more) they are giving Obama, thus preventing Trump from making good on his promises and making him the first one term president since Bush Sr.

And that's even if he wins the presidency. I'm sure those billionaire kingmakers are doing everything they can to stop Trump from getting elected. Hell, they'll probably even back Hillary since they know she'll play ball with them.

Trump at the top of the ticket is such a disaster that the Republicans lose the senate and even their lock on the house cracks half the tumblers...and they might never recover. Two years later they are still "the party of Trump."

 

[Zkribbler]

But the billionaire kingmakers have nothing to gain from killing him and everything to lose.

...

And that's even if he wins the presidency. I'm sure those billionaire kingmakers are doing everything they can to stop Trump from getting elected. Hell, they'll probably even back Hillary since they know she'll play ball with them.

If I were Zkribbler Koch, I'd have already made the call to take Trump out. One shot and I wouldn't have to deal with Trump or with that wildman Cruz. Rubio bad-mouthed us 1%ers in his exit speech, and so I'm ticked at him too. Kalish isn't exactly in my back pocket but I'll bet I can get him to play ball.

If Trump lives long enough to be nominated, I'd be backing Hillary. Trump wants to tear down the system I've been working decades to build. I may hate all of Hillary's position, but at least she's willing to play within the system.

 

[whyidie]

But the billionaire kingmakers have nothing to gain from killing him and everything to lose.

My last post on the subject considering OPs request...Exactly. If you're a multi-millionaire, your scenarios are make a huge amount of money or slightly less. They're not threatened.


In lieu of new predictions, let me trot out my hall of shame of past predictions for this cycle :

Spoiler :

I'm not making any predictions on Carson, Santorum, Fiorina, Paul, Huckabee, etc,. Only because they are, as I've always said, irrelevant. From that group Paul is interesting only because his positions are a good jumping off point on areas of disagreement among the candidates with a chance.

Lowest finishing candidate between Christie and Kasich drops out after New Hampshire. In order for Bush to drop out, he'd need to finish incredibly poorly in New Hampshire along with a decisive win from Kasich/Christie/Rubio.

Rubio seems a solid hold too. Only way I see him dropping is if he is out of Top 4 in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Not so bad. Got the "NA" candidates right. Got Christie dropping after New Hampshire. Not mentioned in this post, I bought Bush low after New Hampshire thinking I'd be able to sell high after South Carolina. That didn't work out. I think I come out of this post down 500.

Spoiler :

Good point. Its my pro-Christie bias showing. With Trump taking the "tell it like it is" mantle, and Kasich eating into the "no Bush" vote Christie may not have enough to differentiate himself.

Guy may not make it to Super Tuesday at this rate. Walkers probably a more likely candidate to play the long game. His backers have deep pockets and are committed to playing the long game. He can wait out the other candidates who are currently eating into his base.

No points for the Christie business as this came after me floating him as viable. Walker prediction...

I'm down 700.

Spoiler :

Now that the field has settled I'm going to narrow it down to three.

Best shot for GOP is to flip FL, OH, VA and one of the mountain west states (CO, NV, NM).

Only candidates they have that are capable of pulling it off are Bush, Kasich, and Christie. Everyone else is noise. They're playing for the 2nd prize of book/tv/campaign money.

With that in mind I'm saying one of those three will be last man standing.

So...thats clinically dead. Do I still get to make predictions ?

 

[Gori the Grey]

Forewarned, we can safely predict
(Not object to) Trump's every edict.
A d*** all along,
When it continues on,
He can claim we were fairly pre-d***'d.

Or, conversely:

With Trump there's no making predictions.
He isn't a man of convictions.
We'd just watch him lurch
As his impulses twerk
Between (all d***ish, true) predelictions.

 

[whyidie]

Forewarned, we can safely predict
(Not object to) Trump's every edict.
A d*** all along,
When it continues on,
He can claim we were fairly pre-d***'d.

Or, conversely:

With Trump there's no making predictions.
He isn't a man of convictions.
We'd just watch him lurch
As his impulses twerk
Between (all d***ish, true) predelictions.

In light of my power of prediction
Your rhymes expose the predilection
Regardless we all agree, a tip of the hat is due
For mine are quite bad
And yours are quite true

 

[onejayhawk]

My only prediction is that the next President will not be a Democrat. If the candidate is Hillary Clinton, the loss may be particularly severe.

J

 

[Timsup2nothin]

My only prediction is that the next President will not be a Democrat. If the candidate is Hillary Clinton, the loss may be particularly severe.

J

J has arrived to remind us, in case we have forgotten, that he finds it particularly painful that the GOP has ceded the center to the Democrats.

 

[Arakhor]

My only prediction is that the next President will not be a Democrat. If the candidate is Hillary Clinton, the loss may be particularly severe.

You never did take up that bet with JR, despite the many months of singing the same tune.

 

[MagisterCultuum]

I believe I can confidently predict that I will not like the next president very much.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Trump at the top of the ticket is such a disaster that the Republicans lose the senate and even their lock on the house cracks half the tumblers...and they might never recover. Two years later they are still "the party of Trump."

known as the "trump rump"

 

[Zkribbler]

I believe I can confidently predict that I will not like the next president very much.

I lived my whole life with that. I remember rejoicing when Carter ran against Ford. For that one election we had two virtuous candidates running against each other.

Stevenson vs. Eisenhower was another such election, but I was too young to be aware of them.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Hey you guys are having a party? Where's my invite? I like tacos!

Kasich will drop out.
Trump will get the nomination outright.
Clinton will get the nomination outright.
Sanders will stay in until Clinton has won outright.
Sanders will be selected as VP.
The GOP will not run a 3rd party candidate and will "unite" behind Trump.
Trump will pick a white male with brown hair as his running mate.
Hillary will get over 400 electoral votes.
The Democrats will take the Senate.
Trump will blame the GOP "not supporting me" for the loss.
The Senate will not have hearings on Garland and his nomination will be withdrawn after the election.
Prez Obama will nominate Sri Srinivanasan in the lame duck and he will be confirmed rather than wait for Hillary and a Democrat controlled Senate to appoint Bill Clinton.

 

[JollyRoger]

My only prediction is that the next President will not be a Democrat. If the candidate is Hillary Clinton, the loss may be particularly severe.

J

My prediction is that a straight up avatar bet will stay off the table.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I predict the governor Susana Martinez (NM) will be on the short list for Republican VPs. She is campaigning hard for the job. She backed Rubio until Florida and has yet to choose another.