I stand by my prediction last November that Hillary will be President.
Political Prediction Thread
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
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danjuno
Cole Phelps, Badge 1247
Yep. Nothing but a stroke or heart attack will stop Hillary at this point.
I call foul on this prediction.
I also (facetiously) call foul on this prediction as you are waffling between heart attack and stroke, please pick one
I predict that a heart attack will not stop Hillary.
I predict that a stroke would stop Hillary.
_random_
Jewel Runner
1. Hillary Clinton will be a single-term president.
2. Democrats will gain a very slight majority in the Senate. House will remain overwhelmingly Republican.
3. "Cleveland, 2016" will evoke similar thoughts to "Chicago, 1968."
2. Democrats will gain a very slight majority in the Senate. House will remain overwhelmingly Republican.
3. "Cleveland, 2016" will evoke similar thoughts to "Chicago, 1968."
This is the best case scenario since Sanders would handily beat a Trump campaign for president.
However, based on the reactionary and conservative forces the Democrats have added to their base, it's likely that the neoconservative Hillary Clinton will cinch the nomination.
If she does, she loses what would normally be an easy win for presidency. My prediction, if Clinton wins the corporatist nomination, she will lose the election to Donald Trump. She's an all around terrible candidate, and her supporters are blind to her massive flaws not only in public perception but her capability as a presidential nominee.
If Donald Trump has proven anything through his campaign, he's magnificent at destroying political dynasties. He turned Jeb Bush from heir-to-the-throne into court jester. He will destroy the Clintons through his relentless populism and unashamed campaigning. All the dirty laundry that the Clintons have tried to keep under wraps will be steadily and forcibly broken out to beat them over the head with.
She stands no chance.
The establishment is collapsing, and whoever decides to side with it will go down with the ship. The Democratic Party will if they go with Clinton, and the Republican party will if they go against Trump.
It's still a prediction! The status-quo oligarchs have eaten away at American democracy. Clinton represents them, while Trump with his fascism and populism represents the radicalism the American people have been forced to accept in order to destroy those entrenched interests.
It's just weird that its coming from the right and not the left, no thanks in part due to the Democratic party's uncanny ability to suck in movements and kill them.
It's just weird that its coming from the right and not the left, no thanks in part due to the Democratic party's uncanny ability to suck in movements and kill them.
I will cosign that Joecoolyo has made a prediction... and a bold ballsy one at that. I think he's wrong but that's the point. Make real predictions and be clearly right or clearly wrong. No waffling or hedging. I salute you sir 
Well, what does one expect after 8 years of economic stagnation because debt-fueled growth hit a wall?
People want to throw out the current ways and try something else, anything else, even the old stuff that didn't work so well.
Nationalism, protectionism, socialism. (fascism)
danjuno
Cole Phelps, Badge 1247
onejayhawk
Afflicted with reason
Timsup2nothin
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That's a pretty bold prediction. I can't see Trump carrying angry white males by any larger margin than Romney did.
danjuno
Cole Phelps, Badge 1247
Mittens isn't exactly a grassroots darling.
I have a few:
GUN TO MY HEAD, right now, I do not think Donald Trump gets the GOP nomination. I think that he'll head to the convention with the most delegates, but short of a majority, and on multiple ballots, many of his pledged delegates will flip (especially if they get "bribed). I'm not sure who ends up becoming the compromise candidate (maybe Kasich, maybe somebody who isn't running at all, like Thune).
IF that happens, I think
1) there is violence at the convention
2) Donald Trump runs as a third party, and wins multiple deep south states.
In the event that Trump DOES get the GOP nomination, and Clinton is NOT indicted, I think there are two scenarios possible:
1) Clinton runs a one on one race against Trump and absolutely kills him. Trump's coalition is unable to grow beyond the 35-40% he's getting among Republicans, and any gains he makes in white men is offset by massive losses in other categories, especially women. While an industrial blue state or two might flip, Clinton is able to offset those with gains in places like Arizona and elsewhere in the West. I would not consider 350+ EV to be impossible for Clinton in this scenario.
Like, I don't think some of you guys understand the antipathy against Trump in some traditionally GOP circles (like Mormons). Some deep red states would flip.
2) Clinton runs against both Trump and a more conventional Republican. Clinton wins by maintaining most of the traditional Democratic states. Trump carries the deep south, while the other Republican wins the plains and mountain west states.
I imagine such a map might look something like this:
My guess is that Trump and the GOP would split enough votes to tilt AZ and NC to Clinton, and Texas, Missouri, Indiana and Georgia would be really contested states between the two. Trump would run well in PA, MI and Florida, but probably not well enough to beat out both a real Republican, and Clinton. Maybe Trump picks off a midwestern state somewhere (Iowa?). It's very unlikely to me that he would win the Rust Belt.
If it was just Clinton and Trump, between much of the GOP completely withdrawing support, and with his horrible splits with women, young voters, the educated, active churchgoers, etc...I think something not too far off from this is possible:
I also think there is a legitimate non-trivial chance that somebody tries to kill or seriously hurt Trump on the campaign trail.
GUN TO MY HEAD, right now, I do not think Donald Trump gets the GOP nomination. I think that he'll head to the convention with the most delegates, but short of a majority, and on multiple ballots, many of his pledged delegates will flip (especially if they get "bribed). I'm not sure who ends up becoming the compromise candidate (maybe Kasich, maybe somebody who isn't running at all, like Thune).
IF that happens, I think
1) there is violence at the convention
2) Donald Trump runs as a third party, and wins multiple deep south states.
In the event that Trump DOES get the GOP nomination, and Clinton is NOT indicted, I think there are two scenarios possible:
1) Clinton runs a one on one race against Trump and absolutely kills him. Trump's coalition is unable to grow beyond the 35-40% he's getting among Republicans, and any gains he makes in white men is offset by massive losses in other categories, especially women. While an industrial blue state or two might flip, Clinton is able to offset those with gains in places like Arizona and elsewhere in the West. I would not consider 350+ EV to be impossible for Clinton in this scenario.
Like, I don't think some of you guys understand the antipathy against Trump in some traditionally GOP circles (like Mormons). Some deep red states would flip.
2) Clinton runs against both Trump and a more conventional Republican. Clinton wins by maintaining most of the traditional Democratic states. Trump carries the deep south, while the other Republican wins the plains and mountain west states.
I imagine such a map might look something like this:
My guess is that Trump and the GOP would split enough votes to tilt AZ and NC to Clinton, and Texas, Missouri, Indiana and Georgia would be really contested states between the two. Trump would run well in PA, MI and Florida, but probably not well enough to beat out both a real Republican, and Clinton. Maybe Trump picks off a midwestern state somewhere (Iowa?). It's very unlikely to me that he would win the Rust Belt.
If it was just Clinton and Trump, between much of the GOP completely withdrawing support, and with his horrible splits with women, young voters, the educated, active churchgoers, etc...I think something not too far off from this is possible:
I also think there is a legitimate non-trivial chance that somebody tries to kill or seriously hurt Trump on the campaign trail.
Timsup2nothin
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Romney won the white vote by TWENTY points. How much better do you expect Trump, or anyone else, could possibly do?
danjuno
Cole Phelps, Badge 1247
@Tim Again, Romney was not an inspiring choice for grassroots Republicans and certainly not Trumpites. The 2012 results were indicitive of Obama's unpopularity with white voters, not Mittens' popularity.
@downtown I fail to see how Hillary would win the mountain west but not the south in a 1v1 landslide against Trump. Obama got 40%+ of the vote in a majority of the ex-confederate states, and HRC's coalition is broadly similar to his.
@downtown I fail to see how Hillary would win the mountain west but not the south in a 1v1 landslide against Trump. Obama got 40%+ of the vote in a majority of the ex-confederate states, and HRC's coalition is broadly similar to his.
My thinking is that Clinton's ability to be competitive in the MW states is primarily about their Republican constituency having a huge antipathy towards Trump. GOP votes in Utah, Wyoming, Idaho etc are less motivated by immigration resentment, or even free trade resentment, and their local party establishments haaaaate Trump. If there is no alternative, I could see total conservative turnout cratering, allowing Clinton to edge out tiny victories in very low-turnout races. These are smaller states, after all. A few thousand people could be the difference in a three-way race in Idaho or Wyoming.
In the deep South, the actual political machinery is much more in line with the kind of conservatism Trump represents. I think you would see a spike in turnout from disaffected white voters who may have sat 2012 out. If that is coupled by a decrease in Democratic turnout relative to Obama (which I think is possible), it's easier for me to see Trump winning 38-33-33 type contests there.
That being said, if you wanted to argue that Clinton, if she campaigned and executed well, could pull off Georgia in a three-way race, I wouldn't argue too hard.
Zkribbler
Deity
If the GOP splits, either by the GOP leadership denying Trump causing him to run as an independent or by Trump getting the nomination and the GOP leadership running an independent candidate, then Hillary will win in a landslide rivaling Nixon's trouncing of McGovern.
Timsup2nothin
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No matter what caused it, the fact remains that he did WIN by twenty points. Based on the reduction in white voter component in the electorate the Republican in 2016 would have to do two points BETTER than Romney just to stay even unless they can do better with non-whites. Trump is on pace to do not better, but substantially worse. At a guess he would need to win the white vote by 25 points. Maybe more. Just to stay even. And even means a substantial loss. To actually win I'd bet he will need a Reaganesque 34 point margin among non Hispanic whites.
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