Political Prediction Thread

So do you think white Trump supporters feel like "Hey let's crash this thing and see what happens! Who care if a few Hispanics and Muslim Americans get F'd in the process, they're not "real Americans" anyway!"
I know at least one who's like that, disturbingly enough. But I think that overall, they're overwhelmingly white people who want to feel safe from terrorists, foreigners of all kinds, Muslims, and pretty much anyone not in their in-group. Safety at any cost, even safety. Immigration? Build a wall and ban Muslims! Offshoring? Start a trade war with the world! Feel threatened by terrorists? Torture them and kill their families! It doesn't matter to them if these things actually make white America safer; what's important is that they feel safer.
 
Do you think that Hispanic and Muslim Americans (or other Americans who care deeply about Hispanic and Muslim Americans) share the detached "fascination" with watching the train wreck and crossing their fingers over who the "significant number of people would get hurt" are? Or is it only white guys who get to be "fascinated"? I mean I say all the time that on some limited level I am in the "USA #1, and worry about everyone else later" camp... I am wondering how much that kind of sentiment extends internally :think:... In fairness FarmBoy is constantly warning me of exactly this... that "USA #1!" becomes "Ohio #1!" becomes "XYZ race/religion etc #1!"

So do you think white Trump supporters feel like "Hey let's crash this thing and see what happens! Who care if a few Hispanics and Muslim Americans get F'd in the process, they're not "real Americans" anyway!"
I absolutely do think this sentiment goes very deep internally. People don't tend to value other groups of people with whom they share few or no connections, especially if the group is of a lower social class or is already viewed suspiciously for whatever reason. Some people would be perfectly fine sacrificing some people they're not connected to in order to see a large-scale political change, especially if they think it would favor them.

As you mention, the USA #1 thing is one example of this much broader phenomenon in the way humans value other humans. For instance, count the number of times an American laments the ~4700 military personnel killed in Iraq and compare that to the number of times they mention the >120,000 direct deaths and >600,000 total deaths among Iraqi citizens, most of them civilians. If they're mentioned at all, the latter will just be a footnote.

But it goes far deeper. Think about speculators in food markets: if they drive the global price of wheat up by 30%, they're not going to care about the poor people worldwide who will starve as a result. Or a corporation laying off American employees and outsourcing to some low-wage country: the corporate bosses see an advantage to doing this, and so they do it, with no concern for the lives it will wreck, who are mostly working-class types anyway. Or get a

So yeah, of course many whites who don't necessarily dislike Hispanics or Muslims themselves will nonetheless think that some Hispanic or Muslim livelihoods are a reasonable trade for damaging a dysfunctional political system. If there's one negative trait about humans that I expect really is just "human nature" which will never be eliminated, it's assigning some people to ingroups and others to outgroups, and treating the outgroup people as less important.

Of all the privileges that a middle-class straight white male gets, detached fascination is the one I enjoy the most. History is always unfolding around us all the time, but as a member of the dominant group, it is relatively unlikely that I will be one of history's victims at this place and time, which gives me an extra safety blanket. It's still possible that I in particular would still feel this way if I were Hispanic or Muslim, because I'm a rather strange person, but the odds are markedly reduced because of the personal stake I would have in the outcome. I suspect that is true of many of the other people who are fascinated by this election as well.

What I use this to do is to read and watch basically every type of news and pseudo-news source with every bias I can think of, and try to put myself in the minds of everyone I read. My go-to news sources are the NYT and BBC, but, for instance, I sometimes read a site full of "scientific" racists and other alt-right types, or I'll watch Stefan Molyneaux, a libertarian/alt-right hybrid. Sometimes I watch Alex Jones, because you don't understand Trump's campaign until you've watched him - some of Trump's debate positions (e.g. the vaccines cause autism thing) are direct appeals to that group of people. I try to really understand the sorts of paranoid conspiracy theories that are common in white America, especially the New World Order, because that's just the right-wing attempt to explain the nexus of economic and political forces that have been pushing them out of work and making them feel powerless. Of course I also watch and read left-wing sources like Democracy Now and Truthdig, and I listen to speeches by Chomsky and Hedges all the time. And then sometimes I want Russian or Iranian propaganda to get their side of things, so there's always RT and (more rarely) PressTV.

Anyway, just because I'm fascinated doesn't mean that I'm not afraid as well. It's been quite obvious for a while now that pressure is rapidly building up among the lower 50-60% of the white population, who have had their economic prospects stagnate for two generations now and many of whom are worse off than their parents or even grandparents. Many have died by suicide or drug overdoses as their hopes for advancement were crushed, and even more have been stockpiling weapons and ammo. My deepest fear about this election isn't that Trump wins, it's that Hillary wins by a tiny and disputed margin like in the 2000 election. If that were to happen, we'll long for the days of the Tea Party backlash against Obama.

I'll close with a political prediction. In the next 20 years, one or both of two things will happen:

1. There will be a large increase in right-wing domestic terrorism, possibly going so far as a domestic insurgency in rural areas, especially the Appalachians, Rockies, or Deep South.
2. A demagogue will be elected president.
 
Do you think that Hispanic and Muslim Americans (or other Americans who care deeply about Hispanic and Muslim Americans) share the detached "fascination" with watching the train wreck and crossing their fingers over who the "significant number of people would get hurt" are? Or is it only white guys who get to be "fascinated"? I mean I say all the time that on some limited level I am in the "USA #1, and worry about everyone else later" camp... I am wondering how much that kind of sentiment extends internally :think:... In fairness FarmBoy is constantly warning me of exactly this... that "USA #1!" becomes "Ohio #1!" becomes "XYZ race/religion etc #1!"

So do you think white Trump supporters feel like "Hey let's crash this thing and see what happens! Who care if a few Hispanics and Muslim Americans get F'd in the process, they're not "real Americans" anyway!"

You raise an interesting point. "The Chosen", an SF book by S.M. Stirling and David Drake, depicts a war between a British-like Empire and a German-like country and led by the Chosen. While it is like WWII, there are differences, eg no Japan or USA. As the war goes badly, the Chosen start culling their own ranks.

Trump supporters are not interested in crashing thigs. Their interest is more akin to setting the board with a different set of pieces. His people believe that they will be part of the new set. They accept his rhetoric as camouflage for his true intentions. Trump gives them a broad wink occasionally so that they feel like insiders. So far it has worked brilliantly and against a much tougher opponent than Hillary Clinton.

Trump respects Ted Cruz. They had a bare-knuckle fight and both were bloodied. Trump's highest praise is tough competitor. Trump does not respect the Clintons.

J
 
The darkest quarter or so of my personality is aligned with the nihilists. Trump is change I actually do believe in, although what change it will be isn't totally clear. Probably a significant number of people would get hurt, and yet it would still be fascinating to see our political system undergo a phase transition to something completely different from the current political setup. It also provides an opportunity to watch the people who thought they controlled the political system of the country get to eat some humble pie, which appeals to me.

I wouldn't call it your darkest quarter, I'd call it your myopic quarter. The reality is Trump would not be a phase transition. Look at his Supreme Court nominees. Practically authored by the good ol boys of the GOP. On every significant issue it would be more of the same GOP agenda. They'll hamstring him if he wants his wall. And he wants that wall. He needs that wall. Same product, different marketing.

It would be a step backwards. Another 4 year hole to dig out of. At best.

So far it has worked brilliantly and against a much tougher opponent than Hillary Clinton.

Trump respects Ted Cruz. They had a bare-knuckle fight and both were bloodied. Trump's highest praise is tough competitor. Trump does not respect the Clintons.

J

Ted Cruz is a political novice and showed as much in the primaries. His Civ ranking is Rick Santorum. That Trump has zero respect for him is clear. The Clintons ? HE LOVES THEM. Because they win.
 
Ted Cruz is amazing? Tick. Hillary Clinton is the devil? Tick.
 
I wouldn't call it your darkest quarter, I'd call it your myopic quarter. The reality is Trump would not be a phase transition. Look at his Supreme Court nominees. Practically authored by the good ol boys of the GOP. On every significant issue it would be more of the same GOP agenda. They'll hamstring him if he wants his wall. And he wants that wall. He needs that wall. Same product, different marketing.

It would be a step backwards. Another 4 year hole to dig out of. At best.
Also quite possible - he could end up deferring to the GOP establishment in the end and giving them most or all of what they want. Still, he seems markedly more independent of the Republican Party mainstream than any of their candidates in recent memory, so the odds of real change (not positive change, but change) are markedly higher under him than under anyone else who has run with the GOP in a long time.

The Supreme Court nominee list was made at a time when he had just wrapped up the nomination, but Ryan and others were hesitating on endorsing him. I suspect he did it to curry favor with them. Still, it could be genuine - there's no way to know what Trump will actually do.
 
Ted Cruz is a political novice and showed as much in the primaries. His Civ ranking is Rick Santorum. That Trump has zero respect for him is clear. The Clintons ? HE LOVES THEM. Because they win.
:lol:
OMG Best laugh of the week.

Was any part of that serious?

J
 
If Trump is elected, his goal will be to be a President that is remembered as being great, a Lincoln or Washington. One that accomplished a lot of stuff and made a difference. I think he would fail and be more of a James Buchanan or US Grant.

Hillary just wants to be the first woman president.
 
If Trump is elected, his goal will be to be a President that is remembered as being great, a Lincoln or Washington. One that accomplished a lot of stuff and made a difference. I think he would fail and be more of a James Buchanan or US Grant.

Give him 12erm... 8 years and you will see that America won't be recognisable anymore!
 
Give him 12erm... 8 years and you will see that America won't be recognisable anymore!

I doubt he runs twice. In any event, was that not the slogan of Obama's 2008 campaign?

obama_victory_speech.jpg
 
Give him 12erm... 8 years and you will see that America won't be recognisable anymore!

Your signature is especially appropriate here:

Sometimes, humanity needs people who break stuff instead of build it.

So, do you think it's time for a stuff-breaker? Or if not, under what circumstances would it be, and what kind of stuff-breaker do we need? I see some need for stuff-breaking to jar the political system out of its current dysfunction, but I think Trump is clearly the wrong type of stuff-breaker.
 
It's odd, but I've never seen a non-white person claiming that there needs to be a "stuff-breaker".

Oh, it's almost as if most stuff-breakers would go straight for them. It's odd how things work.
 
So, do you think it's time for a stuff-breaker? Or if not, under what circumstances would it be, and what kind of stuff-breaker do we need? I see some need for stuff-breaking to jar the political system out of its current dysfunction, but I think Trump is clearly the wrong type of stuff-breaker.

I definitely think we need a stuff breaker ('we' being mankind) though Trump isn't the one to do it. I'd imagine him breaking the stuff that shouldn't be broken.
 
Sounds apocalyptic. Are we trying to kill all humans now? Malthusian catastrophe and all that jazz?
 
It's odd, but I've never seen a non-white person claiming that there needs to be a "stuff-breaker".

Oh, it's almost as if most stuff-breakers would go straight for them. It's odd how things work.

Not in the context of Trump or other nativist types, of course. But go over to the Communist threads, and you'll see plenty of arguments for radical change that would break our existing power structures. That's what I mean by a stuff-breaker: someone who would substantially and abruptly alter the current political and/or economic order.

I definitely think we need a stuff breaker ('we' being mankind) though Trump isn't the one to do it. I'd imagine him breaking the stuff that shouldn't be broken.
I agree. Breaking stuff is really dangerous, and abrupt government changes often come with substantial bloodshed. The dysfunctional parts really should be broken slowly and in stages. But in history change often is abrupt and messy, especially if a sclerotic system creaks along trying to resist a buildup of pressure, until it finally breaks abruptly like France in 1789 or Russia/USSR in 1917 and 1991.

Sounds apocalyptic. Are we trying to kill all humans now? Malthusian catastrophe and all that jazz?
No, just breaking down and reordering the current political and economic system, if I'm reading Tovergieter right. Ideally this would be done piecemeal and cautiously, but at the present time, the economic and political powers that be don't seem capable of or willing to perform substantial changes in the way they operate.
 
I don't know. The word itself - stuff-breaker - sounds like a revolutionary, really, not like someone who would slowly break down the current World Order part by part.
 
I would actually prefer not to have a stuff-breaker in favor of piecemeal but substantial change, but stuff-breaking might in some cases be preferable to leaving a sclerotic system going.
 
I would actually prefer not to have a stuff-breaker in favor of piecemeal but substantial change, but stuff-breaking might in some cases be preferable to leaving a sclerotic system going.

Well, Frederick Douglass said there can be no change without struggle.
My Hegelian senses are kinda tingling - can't have progress without the sequence of thesis, antithesis, synthesis. It's probably impossible to get real improvements in the human condition without going through unspeakable horrors. World War II sucked but without it we would not have a global order based on human rights. Capitalism sucks but without it we'd not have the capacity for socialism. And so on.

However, I have to say I think the impulse to want Trump unleashed on "the Establishment" is at best completely wrong-headed. A Trump presidency would not cause the country's politics to shift to the left.
 
:lol:
OMG Best laugh of the week.

Was any part of that serious?

J


The entire part my good man. For all of the hub-bub about Cruz as genius, it netted him the exact same amount of states as Santorum in 2012. 11.

All his uber organizing and data driven nonsense got him to Rick Santorum. He couldn't make a deal with anyone other than fellow novice Fiornia. His VP nomination was a desperate move by a desperate man. He had no political support outside the same base that Santorum targeted. When he was the only alternative to a man loathed by 40% of his party, he still couldn't expand his political base. He was a short term one note player. For a politician, that reeks of failure. Not only could Cruz not expand his base, he lost key demographics that should have been in his camp. Cruz ignored conventional wisdom and got the same results every other rock ribbed conservative political novice has got. A merit badge for effort.

At least Trump respects the Clintons. Because they do win. At elections they have won at the gubernatorial, senate, and the big prize the presidency. They have more power and influence than Ted Cruz will ever hope to wield. Hell, they've LOST more influence and power than he'll ever accumulate. They also run circles around him in the bank account. Trump respects winners. Cruz hasn't won anything outside of Texas and Trump creamed him at his own game.
 
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