Political Prediction Thread

[innonimatu]

In Italy and Spain, fascists were also not right wing.

Oh my... do try to read some history books, you need it.

Just picking on that Spain thing you said because it's so bloody indefensible: there was never any shred of doubt that the spanish falange and the borader spanish military in rebellion was the (extreme) right-wing of the country. Left-wing spanish weren't even just (or mostly) communists, they were anarchists and socialists, all deeply opposed to the social groups that put Franco in power.

 

[Lexicus]

That is pure revisionism. If you look at history, you get my point. The Nazi's promoted health care and pensions. They competed for votes with the Communists. On the 1930s political scale, they were left of center. Once they gained power, different tactics came out. Hence the night of the long knives. In Italy and Spain, fascists were also not right wing.

Literally every single factual assertion you've made here is wrong - but of course informing you of this will have no effect. The only thing I'll say is that it's in fact your position which is revisionist, as 'the Nazis were left-wing' is a view held almost exclusively by American right-wingers who have absolutely no idea what they're talking about. You know, like you, or Jonah Goldberg.

 

[Tahuti]

That is pure revisionism. If you look at history, you get my point. The Nazi's promoted health care and pensions. They competed for votes with the Communists. On the 1930s political scale, they were left of center. Once they gained power, different tactics came out. Hence the night of the long knives. In Italy and Spain, fascists were also not right wing.

Promoting health care and pensions is not necessarily left-wing. Being pro-government in general doesn't make one automatically left-wing.

In the US, those that call themselves "Anti-Government" tend to be the kind of people who want a totalitarian parochial government which will enforce the right to keep women as property to name an examples. No doubt these groups offer free health care and pensions to their supporters too.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

So, anyone willing to make a prediction how long until the United Kingdom goes the way of Yugoslavia ?

 

[Tahuti]

So, anyone willing to make a prediction how long until the United Kingdom goes the way of Yugoslavia ?

Interesting scenario. I certainly can picture it myself, though it's not necessarily the only way it could unfold.

Say, Post-EU Britain fails to negotiate with Ireland about the Armagh crossing. The IRA strikes again. Scotland wants independence, in part to counter secede back into the EU. Wales sees Scottish Independence movement and IRA and hops on the Anti-UK bandwagon. Like within 2 years?

 

[innonimatu]

So, anyone willing to make a prediction how long until the United Kingdom goes the way of Yugoslavia ?

There will be political unrest, but no civil unrest because of this vote. No one wants to fight or die for the EU. Nobody believes in the EU any longer, many people just thought it it was a "lesser evil" or feared change.

People in the UK are somewhat scared, but I'm guessing that their reaction will be to pull together to make the best of leaving. Those who come out with a divisive discourse at this point will lose in the nest elections. Ireland will not have troubles - the Republic of Ireland must be considering its own exit form the Euro and the EU by now!

 

[danjuno]

Interesting scenario. I certainly can picture it myself, though it's not necessarily the only way it could unfold.

Say, Post-EU Britain fails to negotiate with Ireland about the Armagh crossing. The IRA strikes again. Scotland wants independence, in part to counter secede back into the EU. Wales sees Scottish Independence movement and IRA and hops on the Anti-UK bandwagon. Like within 2 years?

I agree a Scottish counter-secession referendum is likely.

However, which IRA? It's not a single cohesive organization. There have been numerous splits. The bulk of the Provisional IRA Leadership and membership went into electoral politics or retired after Good Friday, and the dissident republican groups such as the "Real" IRA and the "Continuity" IRA are tiny compared to most paramilitary groups. Gerry Adams, the head of (Provisional) Sinn Fein did say that he would call for a reunification referendum if Brexit passed, but I am skeptical of the idea that Brexit could bolster the Dissident Republican groups up to the strength of the PIRA during the Troubles.

 

[Phrossack]

My guesses, not strictly limited to the US:

Trump wins the nomination; establishment GOP disgusted but reluctantly accepts the hijacking of their party as the alternative to a Dem victory. Sanders has a good showing but still loses the nomination to Clinton. He eventually gives all his delegates and his endorsement to Clinton.

Trump wins significantly; he only gets stronger from controversy and scandal, while Clinton gets weaker. The next four years are awful; racists are emboldened, relations with countries around the world deteriorate, and the US goes to war with Iran.

In Europe, there is another major terrorist attack. Right-wing parties gain power in many countries. The UK leaves the EU, FN wins a lot of power in France in 2017, and the AfD get more seats in Germany. Overall, Europe is drifting significantly to the right. The war in Ukraine ends gradually as a frozen conflict; the rebel republics are de facto independent, war-torn, and run by warlords, while Ukraine remains embittered, impoverished, and dysfunctional. In the 2020's, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan dies without a clear successor, having prevented the appearance of any. Kazakhstan has a disputed election; Kazakh nationalists make ethnic Russians nervous, and before long Russia moves in forces and annexes most of northern Kazakhstan. Other countries grumble at the illegality of it but do nothing. Putin is still president.

In the Middle East, the Islamic State smolders on, nobody able to fill the vacuum in the west of Iraq. Assad forms agreements to share power with FSA officials, then murders or imprisons them as soon as his position is secure again.

Well, that's one; the UK is leaving. Once the conventions are done, four more will probably come true (Trump nomination, GOP reluctant acceptance, Clinton nomination, Sanders endorsement).

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Clinton will win the GE fairly solidly. Not 2008 blowout but it won't ever really be in doubt.

Dems will make gains in Senate but fall short of taking it.

The House is so lopsided right now predictions are mostly pointless, obvious Repubs hold it.

Marijuana will be legal across the US before 2030.

 

[AdrienIer]

[/I] Nobody believes in the EU any longer, many people just thought it it was a "lesser evil" or feared change.

Nobody ? So you know every European's opinion of the EU and ALL of them, to no exception, believes in the EU ?
Sorry to step into your fantasy world but many Europeans still believe in it to various degrees.

Also Ireland would be foolish not to use the opportunity given to them by the UK. They have the possibility to gather part of the City's financial power in Dublin, and maybe to finally reunite their island if they stay in, I'm pretty sure that's what they'll be aiming at in the next 10 years.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Uncertainty abounds all across the globe. In such circumstances I think people get more conservative (not US politics conservative) in their thinking and acting. They are less willing to take chances on unknowns and giving control to those who espouse too much change. That is probably good for the Democrats this fall.

I don't know enough about the politics of GB to predict how things there will unfold, but I think that people will opt for actions that they think will keep things stable and less less chaotic. Less change. I think that those who try to seize the moment for even more change will be disappointed.

 

[Bootstoots]

Nobody ? So you know every European's opinion of the EU and ALL of them, to no exception, believes in the EU ?
Sorry to step into your fantasy world but many Europeans still believe in it to various degrees.

Also Ireland would be foolish not to use the opportunity given to them by the UK. They have the possibility to gather part of the City's financial power in Dublin, and maybe to finally reunite their island if they stay in, I'm pretty sure that's what they'll be aiming at in the next 10 years.

Come on now, you know what "nobody" in a hyperbolic context means. Not that literally zero people support the EU, but that the overwhelming majority of the people in the EU do not support it, except as a lesser evil.

I'm not sure that he's right about that - there are a variety of solidly pro-EU countries including Ireland and most of the Eastern European members. But within the "core" of the EU - the six countries that formed the original EEC (Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg), euroskepticism is definitely extremely common and rising rapidly.

 

[Hygro]

Marijuana will be legal across the US before 2030.

Marijuana will be legal across the US no later than 2023, with the majority of states having it legal by 2021.

Medicinally safe drugs like psilocyben, lysergic acid, and methylenedioxymethamphetamine will be legal by 2028.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Marijuana will be legal across the US no later than 2023, with the majority of states having it legal by 2021.

Medicinally safe drugs like psilocyben, lysergic acid, and methylenedioxymethamphetamine will be legal by 2028.

I want to believe but I toned down my optimism.

 

[sophie]

It has majority support nationwide right now, and support is growing among republicans and adult males. California will probably legalize it this November, as may Nevada, Arizona and Maine. It's on the ballot in something like 14 other states. The DOJ has been ordered to stop prosecuting users. Big tobacco and a number of tech companies are jockeying to get into the game before the wave hits. Considering how quickly gay marriage turned, I don't think Hygro's prediction is at all farfetched.

 

[_random_]

Tim Kaine and Newt Gingrich will be the Vice Presidential nominees of their respective parties.

 

[Bootstoots]

It has majority support nationwide right now, and support is growing among republicans and adult males. California will probably legalize it this November, as may Nevada, Arizona and Maine. It's on the ballot in something like 14 other states. The DOJ has been ordered to stop prosecuting users. Big tobacco and a number of tech companies are jockeying to get into the game before the wave hits. Considering how quickly gay marriage turned, I don't think Hygro's prediction is at all farfetched.

Seconded. It's going to be a bit slower than gay marriage because it can't be framed as a civil rights issue, but the proportion of the population that supports legalizing marijuana is probably over 50% already and most of the business community is in favor of it. The only laggards are the politicians, but they'll yield fairly soon given that both their constituents and their donors largely support it, and nobody objects to heavily taxing it once it's legalized. 2023 is a reasonable guess for federal legalization.

I hope he's right about the psychedelics. Those are highly net positive for a large fraction of their users and are really the only class of drugs that aren't addictive at all. My main fear there is that people who use psychedelics are a small proportion of the population, scare stories are still quite common, and there's not much revenue to be found in them, so there may be little political incentive to legalize them.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Interesting scenario. I certainly can picture it myself, though it's not necessarily the only way it could unfold.

Say, Post-EU Britain fails to negotiate with Ireland about the Armagh crossing. The IRA strikes again. Scotland wants independence, in part to counter secede back into the EU. Wales sees Scottish Independence movement and IRA and hops on the Anti-UK bandwagon. Like within 2 years?

I don't think Brexit will be completed within 2 years, but there are now already calls for Irish reunification, a new Scottish independence and an independent London, which I find bizarre.
A violent escalation is unlikely, but I wouldn't be surprised if the UK in its current form disappears before the decade is over.
I mentioned Yugoslavia because that country was brought down more by an economic crisis and hyperinflation than by "ancient ethnic hatred as some people claim." Not trying to be a doom prophet, but if a currency loses 10% of its value over night things are going to get worse before they get better, and I have serious doubts that the current UK government is going to spend the money they save from not being in the EU on subsidies and investments that they're now getting from the EU. At least in the short term, the UK economy is screwed.
The ultimate irony would be if Europe
gets swarmed with British refugees fleeing from a civil war. That would probably be amusing to future historians, but let's hope it doesn't come to that.

 

[Bootstoots]

I'll drop a prediction here based on a disagreement in another thread.

Pennsylvania will either be the tipping point state in 2016, or its margin will be within 2 percentage points of that of the tipping point state. Note that this isn't a prediction about whether it will be especially close: if the national election is not close, PA won't be close either.

 

[Sommerswerd]

What do you mean by "tipping point state"?... I'm inclined to disagree but it occurs to me that I would be asinine to disagree with a prediction I don't even really understand.