[RD] Russia Invades Ukraine: Eight

[Verbose]

The other variable is the EU/UK suddenly stepping in to fill the void left by the US... which is being actively discussed, but seems unlikely to happen.

Half the military aid to Ukraine has already been received from the EU so far, even when the US has specifically gone for military aid. 60% of total aid, military and financial, has been from the EU.

In technically assigned (as in so far promised, not yet delivered) aid, the EU right now outweighs the US by a factor of almost 4:1. And that's before even looking into whether the EU could pick up the slack of a US backing out. Given that, the EU needs to make good on its promised, and while the US might still taper off, in the end there could still be less of a "void" than maybe is assumed in the US.

 

[Verbose]

It's the EU that "messes" with Russia's vassals, not the US, right?

It was always about the EU – but the Russian government can't say it, because the EU cannot be painted as some kind of aggressive military threat. It's a systemic enemy to Russia, which is worse.

The only thing that it was always even more about than the EU, is Ukraine itself. But there the Russian government is even deeper in denial.

Otoh, Putin by now actually is pretty honest in his commentary at public speaking engagements – by his count, Russia is clearly at war with Europe as part of a generalized "west".

But then the point of everything coming out of Russia is that Ukraine is just a proxy for the US, like the EU is a proxy for the US. Should China have a change of heart and decide to drop its tacit (or not so tacit) support of Russia, it will also become and US proxy by the same magic of Russian political alchemy.

That way Russia can fight everyone and everything, yet never actually name who or why it is fighting. And why it can pretend no negotiations are necessary except with the US.

(It's really just a continuation of the BS Russia tried to pull out of the Minsk agreement, whereby it would try to force Ukraine to "negotiate" with the Russian-government-controlled Peeps Repubs in Donbas, but where the Russian government refused all negotiations with the Ukranian govt. Except now the stakes are higher and it wants to negotiate only with the US, since everyone and everything is a "US proxy".)

 

[Snowygerry]

Nevertheless it is highly unlikely the EU would negotiate directly with Russia, foreign policy is a matter for the member states, not the union.

At most it could decide to reduce sanctions as a response to negotiations between nations.

 

[Farm Boy]

But then the point of everything coming out of Russia ...

Those are tongue points. After the Imperial Japanese screed to the League of Nations 2.0 was used to justify aggressive empire the only real points have still been kinetic.

 

[red_elk]

most expendable/untrained soldiers

When you treat your own soldiers as expendables and send them to meat assaults, it's not surprising that you end up outnumbered and have to resort to press gang mobilization. Mass desertion Ukraine is facing is a natural consequence of that.

"Western" means European Union and United States, right? Can't just negotiate with the US.

It's the EU that "messes" with Russia's vassals, not the US, right?

Mostly US, to lesser degree UK. "Messing" is usually done through election meddling and when this doesn't work, coup is organized.
Result is pro-Western (vassal as you put it) regime is installed in neighboring country.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Half the military aid to Ukraine has already been received from the EU so far, even when the US has specifically gone for military aid. 60% of total aid, military and financial, has been from the EU.

In technically assigned (as in so far promised, not yet delivered) aid, the EU right now outweighs the US by a factor of almost 4:1. And that's before even looking into whether the EU could pick up the slack of a US backing out. Given that, the EU needs to make good on its promised, and while the US might still taper off, in the end there could still be less of a "void" than maybe is assumed in the US.

The US is one country, while the EU is multiple, but still, I did not know that the EU had promised Ukraine four times what the US has sent. If the EU were to deliver an aid package that large, Ukraine might actually be able to turn the tide of the war, or at least take back some of Russia's gains. I am unsure whether the EU would actually deliver on a promise that large, unless they were forced to, by the US stopping, or substantially curtailing aid to Ukraine. That of course creates a catch -22, which is that if the US aid is half of what Ukraine is receiving, as you say, then the EU would have to double their aid to Ukraine to make up for the US stepping down from giving half.

But again, if the EU has committed (but not yet delivered) four times what the US has delivered, the EU is theoretically already committed to making up, twice over, for any hypothetical US withdrawal, which, Trump has already stated he isn't going to do anyway. Ultimately, what Trump says isn't reliable, since he lies so much, but you can often predict what he will do based on what course is more popular. Trump excels at politics, because he tries to say and do what he thinks is most popular at the time.

 

[Lexicus]

The US is one country, while the EU is multiple, but still, I did not know that the EU had promised Ukraine four times what the US has sent. If the EU were to deliver an aid package that large, Ukraine might actually be able to turn the tide of the war, or at least take back some of Russia's gains. I am unsure whether the EU would actually deliver on a promise that large, unless they were forced to, by the US stopping, or substantially curtailing aid to Ukraine. That of course creates a catch -22, which is that if the US aid is half of what Ukraine is receiving, as you say, then the EU would have to double their aid to Ukraine to make up for the US stepping down from giving half.

But again, if the EU has committed (but not yet delivered) four times what the US has delivered, the EU is theoretically already committed to making up, twice over, for any hypothetical US withdrawal, which, Trump has already stated he isn't going to do anyway. Ultimately, what Trump says isn't reliable, since he lies so much, but you can often predict what he will do based on what course is more popular. Trump excels at politics, because he tries to say and do what he thinks is most popular at the time.

The issue with these topline numbers is that it includes all forms of aid: military, financial, and humanitarian. Just looking at military aid....well, here's a graph with data to August of this year:

 

[Gedemon]

When you treat your own soldiers as expendables and send them to meat assaults, it's not surprising that you end up outnumbered and have to resort to press gang mobilization. Mass desertion Ukraine is facing is a natural consequence of that.

No wonder Kursk was captured back before the 1st of October, as planned.

 

[red_elk]

No wonder Kursk was captured back before the 1st of October, as planned.

What's so special about 1-st of October, is this another one of "leaked Putin's orders"?

 

[Sommerswerd]

The issue with these topline numbers is that it includes all forms of aid: military, financial, and humanitarian. Just looking at military aid....well, here's a graph with data to August of this year:
View attachment 712465

So based on this graph the $61.1 billion from the US is more than everyone else combined (50.6 billion), even if you include Canada and the UK with the EU military aid, but as you say maybe there is other forms of aid that @Verbose was/is referencing.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Key Russian general killed in Moscow bomb blast claimed by Ukraine​

A top Russian general accused of using chemical weapons on the battlefields in Ukraine was killed after a bomb went off in Moscow early Tuesday, Russian investigators said, in an attack swiftly claimed by Kyiv.

Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, who headed Russia’s radiological, biological and chemical protection forces, was killed by a remotely detonated bomb planted in an electric scooter outside an apartment building some 7 kilometers (4 miles) southeast of the Kremlin, according to Russia’s Investigative Committee.

The blast came a day after Ukrainian prosecutors sentenced Kirillov in absentia for Russia’s use of banned chemical weapons during its invasion. A source with knowledge of the operation later told CNN that Ukraine’s security service, the SBU, was behind the attack.


[IMG width="396px" height="222.502px" alt="A view shows a scene after Igor Kirillov, in charge of Russia's nuclear protection forces, was killed in Moscow on Tuesday."]https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/2024-12-17t062450z-335265788-rc2tqbaleo74-rtrmadp-3-ukraine-crisis-moscow-blast.jpg?c=16x9&q=h_144,w_256,c_fill[/IMG]


“Kirillov was a war criminal and an absolutely legitimate target, as he gave orders to use banned chemical substances against the Ukrainian military,” the source told CNN. “Such an inglorious end awaits all those who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable.”

Kirillov, who was 54, is the most senior military official known to be killed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. His assistant, named in Russian media as Ilya Polikarpov, was also killed in the blast on Ryazansky Street.

More Here:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/17/europe/russia-bomb-kills-nuclear-protection-chief-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Verbose]

So based on this graph the $61.1 billion from the US is more than everyone else combined (50.6 billion), even if you include Canada and the UK with the EU military aid, but as you say maybe there is other forms of aid that @Verbose was/is referencing.

You might check the Kiel Institute numbers directly. At least it's complete:

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

 

[Lexicus]

You might check the Kiel Institute numbers directly. At least it's complete:

Ukraine Support Tracker - A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine

The Ukraine Support Tracker lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid promised by governments to Ukraine.

www.ifw-kiel.de

@Sommerswerd the page has a graph to Oct 31 of this year showing the same thing, though you can scroll down and see all the tiny little bars given by various European countries. The US is delivering about as much military aid as everyone else combined.

This is not to say that the other forms of assistance are inconsequential, but Ukraine's forces need to be supplied and resupplied with arms and munitions now, and if US military aid ceases next year it is certainly an open question whether Europe can pick up the slack entirely.

 

[Snowygerry]

We need structural support for Ukraine, so that it is not dependent on the whims of a single individual.

This conflict is set to continue for decades, it will likely outlast both Trump and Putin.

Despite criticism of being slow and cautious, the United States and its Western partners have successfully escalated their support without triggering a broader war with Russia. Russia is currently suffering 1,500 casualties a day, in large part due to Western weapons. Support that once seemed escalatory, such as providing long-range artillery, is no longer perceived the same way. The Russian frog has been boiled on a low flame when it comes to support for Ukraine.

How to Support Ukraine: Peace Will Require Ukrainian Strength

Ukraine is facing strong headwinds as the war has tilted in Russia's favor. But a revived Western effort to finance Ukraine's war effort will send a clear message to the Kremlin and is likely the only way to bring Russia to the negotiation table.

www.csis.org

Option 1: Issuing “Eurobonds.” This is the most straightforward and obvious mechanism to inject immediate and massive amounts of funding into the European defense sector. The European Union would simply borrow funding from capital markets. This would work in a proven and straightforward manner: The European Union would go to capital markets and issue bonds. The European Union has done this in the past when it borrowed in response to the pandemic for the NextGenerationEU recovery fund. EU debt receives a AAA credit rating, and the market has clamored for more EU debt, seeing it as a safe asset. This is something that the European Union is much better placed to do than NATO, both because it has done this before and because the European Union has a currency, the euro, which can be leveraged.

I'm all for that, currently my wealth is wasted generating more wealth I don't actually need, it would be nice to be able invest in something that can make a difference, most investment tools are made to maximize profit, we need an instrument that prioritizes production imho.

I can invest in Belgian arms production, but small arms will not change the course of the war, and I do not trust the German nor the US American companies to only supply the correct side in the war,
they might as well supply the Israeli army for example, not with my money.

So option 1 should go hand in hand with this,

EU member states and institutions should significantly scrutinize European defense companies. European leaders and parliaments should challenge defense companies and conduct significant oversight of their practices. There should be immense public scrutiny and pressure on these firms to produce more and to do so faster. The European Union should also not be exporting equipment that is urgently needed in Ukraine to other countries—those recipient countries can wait.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

⚡️ Russian losses are five times (!) higher than Ukrainian losses, says Trump’s special envoy Kellogg. He noted that wave attacks with massive casualties are typical for Russians, similar to North Koreans. "This is a war of attrition, just like in World War II."

bsky.app

Trump's special Ukraine-Russia envoy retired general Keith Kellogg confirms evidence claiming Russia losses are about five times higher than Ukrainian and describe meat assaults with massive loses as typical Russian. Basic things every no-Putin-fanboy already know.

Meanwhile another Russian refinery is burning:

NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com)

Overnight in Novoshakhtinsk: a refinery in Russia's Rostov region is on fire after a drone strike. Locals reported that explosions lasted over an hour.

bsky.app

 

[Ordnael]

Let that refinery burn all through the cold nights and warm Russians hearts in tis very special season

 

[red_elk]

Russia returns the favor. Merry Christmas.

In response to the NATO attack rockets in the Rostov region, the Russian Armed Forces hit the SBU command post and the Luch design bureau building in Kyiv. In addition, it was reported that a Patriot air defense missile system position was destroyed in the Ukrainian capital.

As a result of the group missile and drone strike, effective hits were recorded on the heating main, gas infrastructure, the military plant "Artem", the "Toronto" business center, as well as the military airfield Vasylkiv in the Kyiv region. Fires were reported in several areas of the city, at least one of which was caused by the work of the Ukrainian Defense.

 

[Gorbles]

Russia returns the favor. Merry Christmas.

Ah yes, responding to hitting a refinery by hitting heating, gas and a business center. They just forced your hand

 

[Verbose]

If only the Ukranians actually were cattle to be traded, this would all be so much easier...

But then again, the Russians have already been bought and sold by their government.

 

[Lexicus]

Russia returns the favor. Merry Christmas.

Do you have any idea how ****ed this makes you look