2020 US Election (Part 3)

[hobbsyoyo]

The networks are being sooooooo conservative about making calls

 

[hobbsyoyo]

NV update due any minute. I expect the networks to call the election at that point.

But I said the same thing yesterday lol

 

[uppi]

So Biden won, now can we talk about what we've won here? Because my cynical ass says that looking at these results he's won an ineffectual government in which he is able to do nothing but gets all the blame when this all goes tits up. Which means there needs to be a strategy now about how we message the inevitable failure and pin it on the actual culprits, McConnel and his Senate.

Well, you stopped Trump from being able to make it worse. But, yes, this is hardly the turnaround that the USA needed.

 

[Sommerswerd]

The networks are being sooooooo conservative about making calls

Its better this way I think. It gives Trump voters time to move through the grieving process.

It also gives the networks time to really explain in detail and repeat over and over why Trump was ahead in these key states but is now behind, so it can really sink in. Even Laura Ingram was punking someone last night who was trying to claim that Trump would win PA because he was still ahead.

It also increases the credibility of the networks because they have been saying "count all the votes" for days. They would make themselves look partisan and hypocritical to then rush to call it for Biden in these states as soon as he took the lead.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I don't care about any of that @Sommerswerd, I need to get out of this dopamine cycle. I've been refreshing a dozen tabs every 5 seconds for days...I need off the ride

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Biden's lead rose to 22k in NV. It is increasingly hard to defend not calling the state.


At some point you feed into Trump's narrative by holding back calling a spade a mother &$%#ing joementus spade

 

[sherbz]

It would be sad if he what he was saying wasn't so dangerous. It seems like he genuinely believes that there is a massive conspiracy against him. How does one get so far divorced from reality?

By surrounding yourself with "Yes men". Which acts as an echo chamber for his own considerable ego.

 

[Drakle]

So Biden won, now can we talk about what we've won here? Because my cynical ass says that looking at these results he's won an ineffectual government in which he is able to do nothing but gets all the blame when this all goes tits up. Which means there needs to be a strategy now about how we message the inevitable failure and pin it on the actual culprits, McConnel and his Senate.

He needs the Senate to do a lot.

But the Presidency still has quite a lot of powers, it just remains to be seen if Biden will use it.

He can dump all of Trump's executive orders. DACA, Paris Climate, etc are all back on day one.

He can place a bunch of police departments in DOJ consent decrees to be supervised while reforming practices. They have proven some effectiveness.

He can change a lot of things at DOJ, make them prosecute some things harder, put more resources in some spots, stop enforcing some stuff, etc. Hopefully do something about Facebook.

He can tell the DHS to totally change up the border enforcement practices.

Foreign policy. Back in Iran deal. Get a five year extension on Nuclears Arms control with Russia. Stop support for Yemen war. TPP and NAFTA. Rebuild relations with allies. Punish enemies. Rethink some relations.


Anyway the downballot is looking marginally less bleak. Aside from AZ which has a lot of traditional Republican mail in voting, the late mail in ballots are looking really blue, bluer than most predicted. So if NC ballots break as blue as GA ballots did, Cal might just eke out a narrow win. And the general margins seem to be shifting blue, so while Democrats have still lost a lot of races, it is by somewhat smaller margins. They might pull a few race out of the Republicans jaws, some house races and legislature ones.

The late ballots being this wrong, has reduced the polling error a bit. We might get to a point where of the states, only Florida was called wrong by 538 (They had Ohio and Iowa back on the red side of the snake by their final forecast). Or only NC and Florida.

The Senate polling error still remains worse, but that has generally been harder to predict for a while.

Anyway, if you can help it, stop refreshing the maps. We know Biden has won GA and PA. GA is going to run offs. The only major question mark is NC, and very maybe Alaska. Which won't release any results for a few more days.

 

[sherbz]

Anyone here think any moves might be made to dump the electoral college in the near future? I thought it pie in the sky at first, but then i saw an article on Fox News of all places advocating the very same thing.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Anyone here think any moves might be made to dump the electoral college in the near future? I thought it pie in the sky at first, but then i saw an article on Fox News of all places advocating the very same thing.

Everyone wants to ditch it except Republican politicians. Even their Republican voters want to ditch it, though by lower margins than everyone else.

If Hillary had won the EC but lost the popular vote, most red states would have signed the compact that sidesteps the EC by now.

 

[Deadly Dog]

This thread is the perfect newsfeed supplement for such a slow drawn out results process. Thanks all.

Particularly like the aside discussions about how to better communicate between "sides". Hint: changing the language isn't enough. If you think you're better/smarter than the other side, they will know.

My personal belief the left-right spectrum framework we've been using is obsolete. Add another axis at least, centralized govt vs. local. And a third for leadership by populism vs leadership by evidence/bureaucracy . Get off the linear scale and suddenly all sorts of cross party alliances become possible.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I don't care about any of that @Sommerswerd, I need to get out of this dopamine cycle. I've been refreshing a dozen tabs every 5 seconds for days...I need off the ride

I think FOX News did everyone a big favor by calling AZ for Biden on election night. That set up a situation where Trump voters would be looking at a map where Biden had 264 electoral votes and was literally one state away from the win. So that would have allowed a lot of people to start the grieving process right then and there.

And for those who couldn't accept it and still wanted to believe that Trump would prevail, it had to be very uncomfortable constantly staring at that graphic showing Biden so close to winning, so my guess is that some of them would have changed the channel to CNN or one of the other networks. In fact, as soon as FOX News put Biden at 264, I'm guessing a bunch of folks just reflexively assumed that "well if FOX has him at 264, surely the fake news lamestream liberal media has already called it"... so these groups of folks switch to CNN, etc., to be pleasantly surprised that they have not called AZ yet, which relieves some of their anxiety... so they stick with CNN.

But of course on CNN, they are getting thoughtful explanation of the reality of the vote counting situation with careful analysis of the dynamics of different precincts/counties, and an explanation of the different types of votes and when they are counted and how they are breaking and why... along with constant rebukes of Trumps nonsense and unsubstantiated claims, whereas on FOX News, they would have been getting bombarded with false claims about fraud, and irregularities. So since they have been watching CNN, etc., instead of FOX, they have had time to really acclimate themselves to the reality of the situation.

All speculation of course... but if I'm right... FOX News may have saved the Republic by calling AZ early.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

NYT staff are informally calling the election on their website liveblog.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

It's been a hot minute but when NC stopped reporting, I recall them saying Biden would need something like 65% of the outstanding votes and how impossible that seemed. Well that was before PA and GA broke bad for Biden at a 65-85% clip in rural counties, so who knows?

 

[migalhone]

LOL from the article



Edit: This fits my narrative about their complaint to Barr about illegal votes...they went to Barr because a judge would have quickly dismissed them.

This is sooooooo stupid. Like Looney Toons in real-life running headfirst into brick walls, or falling into their own traps...

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Local pollsters in AZ are calling the state for Biden. I think as soon as one other network calls AZ for Biden, Fox and AP will call NV and the whole deal for Biden.

 

[Joij21]

Paris Climate

Uggh!!

stop enforcing some stuff

Naaaagggghhhh!!!

Hopefully do something about Facebook

CESORSHIP!!!!

He can tell the DHS to totally change up the border enforcement practices.

DACA

make them prosecute some things harder, put more resources in some spots

He can place a bunch of police departments in DOJ consent decrees to be supervised while reforming practices.

OVERREACH!!!!!!!

Back in Iran deal.

Stop support for Yemen war.

Good luck with that!

TPP and NAFTA.

BUT WE ALREADY HAVE A NEW DEAL!!!

Rebuild relations with allies.

What are we gonna give them cash now!?! WHAT MORE DO THEY WANT!!!

Get a five year extension on Nuclears Arms control with Russia.

Ahh so we're trying to enter into arms negotiations with them while demonizing them at the same time? NOT LIKELY!!

Punish enemies. Rethink some relations.

THAN NUCLEAR WAR WITH RUSSIA AND NORTH KOREA IT IS!!!

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Me waiting for the networks to stop being scared and call it

 

[Sommerswerd]

lols, Trump is being twittertrolled with gif of "The Count" from Sesame Street. I can't figure out how to post stuff from twitter so one of my favorite examples

Trump: STOP THE COUNT!

You Can't Stop The Count!!

FIVE! Five beautiful states! Ah, Ah, Ah, Ha!

 

[Samson]

TIL about a person called Paula White.
I thought only some non-mainstream protestant sects denominations had female pastors.
Not sure why any female would want to be a pastor anyway, let alone a tv evangelist (other than the $$$).

You know the Church of England has female pastors, and around here it is a majority.