2020 US Election (Part 3)

[onejayhawk]

The courts aren't having that much of a say, the cases presented thus far being basically laughable. But you set those aside

Not laughable, though perhaps not winnable. There is a plausible argument for count fraud on the order of millions. The simple vote total itself is suspicious. Total ballots cast is up 17 million from the record number in 2016. Normal increase is 2 to 3 million. There are grounds for suspicion. the question is whether there is proof in court.

So far the courts have been saying: "Are you serious? No really, are you actually serious?"

Not all of the courts.

J

 

[Angst]

So ok, Trump is naturally claiming the Georgia recount is rigged, because that's what he does, and I've lost my patience at this point, so I'm at the point now where several people were before me.

So let me just lay it out like millions of others have lost patience at this point.

It's just pathetic. What an utterly ridiculous baby. I can't believe someone like that has failed upwards so hard. It reminds me of Xi Jinping's insecurities around Winnie the Pooh. How the hell can you be in such a position and such a baby.

 

[Angst]

Not laughable, though perhaps not winnable. There is a plausible argument for count fraud on the order of millions. The simple vote total itself is suspicious. Total ballots cast is up 17 million from the record number in 2016. Normal increase is 2 to 3 million. There are grounds for suspicion. the question is whether there is proof in court.


Not all of the courts.

J

If you don't understand how Trump's behavior can procure agitation on both sides, I'm not sure what world you're living in. I haven't followed the last few pages, so I'm just going to ask - are you about to go on about Benford's law, too?

 

[Grisu]

President only thinks about elections and golfing.

Meanwhile,
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/15/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-coronavirus-transition/index.html

But Trump doesn't care. He will gleefully let the situation worsen and doesn't care about people dying, just to spite Biden.

hey, not fair. He single handedly developed not one, but two vaccines that will end the China Plague

 

[Gori the Grey]

The simple vote total itself is suspicious. Total ballots cast is up 17 million from the record number in 2016

Are only the extras for Biden suspicious, or is it suspicious that Trump got so many more than last time?

 

[onejayhawk]

If you don't understand how Trump's behavior can procure agitation on both sides, I'm not sure what world you're living in. I haven't followed the last few pages, so I'm just going to ask - are you about to go on about Benford's law, too?

That's not germane. Nor is Benford's law, but you knew that.

hey, not fair. He single handedly developed not one, but two vaccines that will end the China Plague

OK It's fair to note that Trump accelerated the vaccine by a year or more.

Are only the extras for Biden suspicious, or is it suspicious that Trump got so many more than last time?

Hardly. It's a tip that something is not right.

If you recall, the Florida recount in 2000 increased Bush's winning margin.

J

 

[Angst]

That's not germane.

Nice attempt at handwaving a question. I still asked you something.

 

[El_Machinae]

There is a plausible argument for count fraud on the order of millions.

I remember the stellar leadership from Trump on this issue for the last four years. His near-decade of constantly screaming about voter fraud really prepared him with a toolkit of solutions once he got the bully pulpit.

 

[Lexicus]

OK It's fair to note that Trump accelerated the vaccine by a year or more.

Through the sheer force of his will? Or, uh, exactly how did he accelerate the vaccine?

 

[AdrienIer]

Obviously if he hadn't asked for a vaccine no one would have been interested in producing one. His highness has spoken !

 

[AmazonQueen]

Through the sheer force of his will? Or, uh, exactly how did he accelerate the vaccine?

Funnily enough other vaccines developed in other countries are being readied at roughly the same time.

 

[El_Machinae]

Through the sheer force of his will? Or, uh, exactly how did he accelerate the vaccine?

Well, he gets credit for allowing what we know that governments can usefully do. We've seen pressed research projects before, and he allowed it to happen. Of course, we don't have any information about whether he showed any useful leadership (unlikely, this was during the "very strong light, inside the body" stage of his presidency), but belief on whether he did so will divide along strict partisan lines.

 

[Gorbles]

Not laughable, though perhaps not winnable. There is a plausible argument for count fraud on the order of millions. The simple vote total itself is suspicious. Total ballots cast is up 17 million from the record number in 2016. Normal increase is 2 to 3 million. There are grounds for suspicion. the question is whether there is proof in court.

"higher voter engagement" in of itself is not suspicious. I can only guess as to why you're sympathetic to the notion that it is (plausible).

 

[Estebonrober]

If you recall, the Florida recount in 2000 increased Bush's winning margin.

J

I mean we already know we can basically just assume the opposite of all your assertions and be closer to the truth then any of your actual assertions but this one in particular demands correction.


NORC found that with a full statewide hand recount, Gore would have won Florida under every possible vote standard. Depending on which standard was used, his margin of victory would have varied from 60 to 171 votes.

The recount was paid for by a consortium of news outlets — CNN, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Tribune Company, the Washington Post, the Associated Press, the St. Petersburg Times, and the Palm Beach Post. But this was just two months after the September 11 terrorist attacks. The outlets patriotically buried the blockbuster news that George W. Bush was not the legitimate president of the United States.

https://theintercept.com/2018/11/10...t-the-presidency-with-a-preemptive-surrender/

 

[Sommerswerd]

There is a plausible argument for count fraud on the order of millions. The simple vote total itself is suspicious. Total ballots cast is up 17 million from the record number in 2016. Normal increase is 2 to 3 million.

Nonsense. Kerry got just over 59 million votes in 2004. Obama got over 69 million in 2008, an increase of over 10 million. Ronald Reagan got 43.9 million in 1980 and over 54 million in 1984, another 10 million plus increase, so that completely shatters the premise of your argument. There's nothing "suspicious" about a party getting a 10 million vote swing. Its happened for both a Republican and Democratic POTUS. Plus, over 10 million of the 17 million you cite went to Trump. You're not calling Trump's votes fraud, and he got a bigger share of the increase. Your argument is completely illogical.

2016 was a record number of votes for Republicans. Democrats hit their record number in 2008. More importantly, the difference between what the highest ever Republican total is currently (73,146,311 for Trump currently) and the highest Republican total was previously (62,984,828 for Trump in 2016), 10,161,483 votes... is a higher number than the same for Democrats (currently 78,712,210 for Biden minus 69,498,516 for Obama 2008), 9,243,694 votes. So since the Republicans record high isn't suspicious, the Democrats record high isn't either.

 

[Lexicus]

Nonsense. Kerry got just over 59 million votes in 2004. Obama got over 69 million in 2008, an increase of over 10 million. Ronald Reagan got 43.9 million in 1980 and over 54 million in 1984, another 10 million plus increase, so that completely shatters the premise of your argument. There's nothing "suspicious" about a party getting a 10 million vote swing. Its happened for both a Republican and Democratic POTUS. Plus, over 10 million of the 17 million you cite went to Trump. You're not calling Trump's votes fraud, and he got a bigger share of the increase. Your argument is completely illogical.

2016 was a record number of votes for Republicans. Democrats hit their record number in 2008. More importantly, the difference between what the highest ever Republican total is currently (73,146,311 for Trump currently) and the highest Republican total was previously (62,984,828 for Trump in 2016), 10,161,483 votes... is a higher number than the same for Democrats (currently 78,712,210 for Biden minus 69,498,516 for Obama 2008), 9,243,694 votes. So since the Republicans record high isn't suspicious, the Democrats record high isn't either.

This is an excellent post, to which I will only add the observation that Jay actually started a whole thread basically for the purpose of performatively salivating over the US House results. You notice that Republicans are not questioning the results of the Senate and House races in this election...I wonder why that might be?

 

[Gori the Grey]

Still, all this gives a line of "reasoning" that we might start seeing in tweets:

17 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016 and people are saying that your favorite president (me) drove the increase on BOTH sides. Therefore, since I am responsible for those additional votes for Biden, they should actually be counted as votes for me.

 

[Kyriakos]

On the bright side, when Trump fell you started to get good vaccine news. Surely no relation between the two events

 

[Grisu]

Through the sheer force of his will? Or, uh, exactly how did he accelerate the vaccine?

He tweeted it into existence

Though a bit more seriously: Whatever goes well, Trump takes full credit for. Whatever goes bad, he takes no responsibility whatsoever. Nothing new here.

 

[Sommerswerd]

As I, and others have mentioned, vaccine developers faced the Comey problem... whereby even if they had the good news sooner than they let on, if they'd released news during the election, Trump would have taken credit for it and they would have been accused of trying to influence the election in Trump's favor... whereas if they kept quiet until after the election, you'd have Trump supporters intimating that they conspired against Trump by failing to release the good news in time to help Trump win the election.

So you have to either:
a.) Take them at their word that they released the news about the vaccine when they had it, without regard to politics, and the unfortunate timing (from Trump supporters perspective) is coincidental; or
b.) Believe that they held on to the info intentionally, because they thought that not helping Trump was in the best interest of the country, and the world... which it most certainly was

Either way, I'm giving them a pass.