2020 US Election (Part 3)

[Arwon]

Well, let's think about what causes 'vote updates'. It's when a polling station (or multiple ones if reporting results at same time) has stopped counting and reporting what they have. So the largest votes totals would be in the most populous areas, which would not surprise me if these were where the 'jumps' for Biden were. Highly populated areas tend to vote more D than R. And in many highly populated areas, especially one with a significant black population, it is not surprising, or sometimes expected the vote will be 80-90% for the democrat.

So the area that is most heavily D is also the area with the largest number of total votes, this will obviously cause the largest 'jump'.

Yeah this is incredibly obvious, the MAGA chuds are getting suckered by people either deliberately ignore, or inadvertently understand nothing about, the realities of electoral administration. Doing a scatter plot of heterogeneous individual vote bundles and thinking it tells you anything by itself is deranged.

Plus by omission it tells you they have nothing in the way of actual evidence of vote rigging (since none exists because there wasn't any).

 

[Birdjaguar]

You have to be a William Faulkner to get away with such stuff:

You get born and you try this and you don't know why only you keep on trying it and you are born at the same time with a lot of other people, all mixed up with them, like trying to, having to, move your arms and legs with string only the same strings are hitched to all the other arms and legs and the others all trying and they don't know why either except that the strings are all in one another's way like five or six people all trying to make a rug on the same loom only each one wants to weave his own pattern into the rug; and it can't matter, you know that, or the Ones that set up the loom would have arranged things a little better, and yet it must matter because you keep on trying and then all of a sudden it's all over and all you have left is a block of stone with scratches on it provided there was someone to remember to have the marble scratched and set up or had time to, and it rains on it and then sun shines on it and after a while they don't even remember the name and what the scratches were trying to tell, and it doesn't matter.

And this wasn't even among his longest.

 

[Arwon]

Honestly though, what's at the root of a lot of these unsubstantiated feelpinions about the election result being wrong is a sub-conscious gut feeling that in a white supremacist system, black people voting shouldn't be impactful or decisive. Big vote totals being added from largely black areas feels wrong to them because why are those people even allowed to vote. The fact that the decisive votes in the key states are coming from big heavily black cities is what's animated and made plausible this mindless rejection of the result.

The surface level is sadness that Trump lost, but the deep brain logic is about who they think owns the country and its systems.

(Edit: in fairness a lot of the Bernie Sanders fans who blame a DNC conspiracy for him losing the nomination are doing a variation of the same routine)

 

[Birdjaguar]

Rural white folks don't like urban non whites having power over their lives.

 

[Berzerker]

You are focused on the beginning of this pandemic still? I would simply state at the beginning both sides were somewhat listening to Public Health officials. Be it to preserve medical supplies or whatever they downplayed it, that was a couple hundred thousand deaths ago and 9 months ago. What has occurred in the intervening months? A clossal failure by the current President, 260K+ Americans gone on his hands.

I'm focusing on the lie, at some point the lie was no longer needed. I dont know exactly when that was, late March or early April maybe. I guess when Fauci et al were satisfied with PPE production. By April people were taking the bug seriously and Trump's effort to open up since then was to win in November. But his motives aside, lock downs can do more damage than the disease, just look at the drug war.

His mixed messages didn't help, he should have emphasized masks once the lie was discarded. Well, the lie was the problem. But blaming him for state responses under a system of federalism gives a pass to a bunch of people who dont deserve it. If I lost someone in a NY nursing home Cuomo would be at the top of my list.

Instead of using military construction money on a useless wall we could have used it to build theater hospitals in every major city. Instead of the President claiming we are all safe, and covid will magically go away when it gets warmer, we could have activated medical personnel to augment civilian hospitals and our theater hospitals. Those hospitals that are maxed out across the country, most likely need those hospital ships, need those theater hospitals. It wouldn't hurt to have a national plan, send the covid patients to the mil hospitals first to avoid straining the civilian system.

Didn't the stimulus bill provide funding to help the states? Trump was told to downplay the bug just like the Dems, but the Dems blame him while hiding from their role in the lie. That aint right.

Just the word "Russiagate" is obnoxious, have we gotten our dose of FOX, OANN, and Newsmax today?

Lying to the FBI and a Fisa court to spy on political opponents is obnoxious.

Any case travel restrictions don't work if you are just banning foreign nationals without any sort of screening for US citizens, visa, and green card holders. COVID doesn't care if your American or Chinese it spreads regardless, thus only blocking foreign nationals is xenophobic trash. If the President had come out and said we are banning all travel from China to begin with and then set up an intensive quarantine measure, ie American returns from China, plane lands at specified airfield, two weeks of quarantine and monitor by medical personnel. This would have been an effective mitigation measure. The "China bad, ban China" nonsense is xenophobic trash that one would hear on something like "Newsmax".

I dont know what measures were taken but Biden wasn't criticizing Trump for not going far enough.

As to Russian interference in the 2016 election... IT HAPPENED... IT IS A FACT! Intelligence, national security, etc etc etc have all said that it occurred. What hasn't been proven in court is whether President Trump was complicit in this act, this is only because Mueller can't indite a President due to "Sovereign Immunity". Mueller's report is fairly conclusive that some degree of collusion occurred if you would actually read it.

Russiagate refers to the efforts of the Clinton campaign, DNC and assorted allies including the Obama administration and media to smear Trump and people in his orbit as traitors. They lied to a Fisa court to spy on Trump and they kept doing it for about a year. As for Russian interference, it aint like they unleashed a biological weapon on the world to get rid of Trump.

The owner of Crowdstrike testified they had no proof Russia hacked the emails and google/facebook testified the amount of money spent on ads coming from Russian troll farms was a pittance. According to journalist Aaron Mate a majority of that money was spent after the election and a small minority of ads were even election related. Have you ever seen these ads? I haven't. But we do know Ukraine interfered, they got Paul Manafort to resign with their 'black ledger'. Not that I mind, but the double standard is conspicuous.

 

[cardgame]

I'm focusing on the lie,

Why? You obviously don't give a **** about the truth.

 

[Samson]

Lying to the FBI

That is terrible, you would never get republicans doing that.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I'm focusing on the lie, at some point the lie was no longer needed. I dont know exactly when that was, late March or early April maybe. I guess when Fauci et al were satisfied with PPE production. By April people were taking the bug seriously and Trump's effort to open up since then was to win in November. But his motives aside, lock downs can do more damage than the disease, just look at the drug war....

Lying to the FBI and a Fisa court to spy on political opponents is obnoxious....

Former FBI lawyer Kevin Clinesmith will plead guilty to falsifying a document used to obtain a FISA warrant on former Trump-campaign adviser Carter Page.

One guy; one lie? Fauci? one guy; one lie?

Trump? One guy 10,000 lies. So you see these as equivalent? You seem quite upset because some folks lied, but ignore all of Trump's lies over 4 years. Trump even lied in his latest public conversation on FoxNews.

 

[Gorbles]

The owner of Crowdstrike testified they had no proof Russia hacked the emails

Among the many, many things in your post that I don't have the time to scrape through and verify, you're not telling the truth. Again.

Specific quote:

Did CrowdStrike have proof that Russia hacked the DNC?

Yes, and this is also supported by the U.S. Intelligence community and independent Congressional reports.

If you're going to split hairs over the wording of "DNC" vs. "emails" to avoid looking like you're intentionally misleading the thread (or maybe you've just fully bought into right-wing propaganda, I'm too tired to care which it is at this point), all that is is further proof that you have no objective basis for any of this, nor the actual facts at hand to make fair judgement.

Which is fine! But it makes you partisan as all heck

 

[Birdjaguar]

Among the many, many things in your post that I don't have the time to scrape through a verify, you're not telling the truth. Again.

Specific quote:

If you're going to split hairs over the wording of "DNC" vs. "emails" to avoid looking like you're intentionally misleading the thread (or maybe you've just fully bought into right-wing propaganda, I'm too tired to care which it is at this point), all that is is further proof that you have no objective basis for any of this, nor the actual facts at hand to make fair judgement.

Which is fine! But it makes you partisan as all heck

Your link is great and gives great detail on how it all happened who knew what when. Thanks.

 

[Cloud_Strife]

Berzerker isn't here in good faith.

 

[Berzerker]

I find it amusing that you and @Berzerker dwell on my assigning the all responsibility for covid deaths on Trump and point out insignificant issues as a counter argument. Naturally, in order for your case to make any sense at all, you both need to push my post into an extreme position.

You said Trump murdered everyone who died from covid. How did we make that more extreme?

As I have said before, Trump has been POTUS for the entire virus. No one else has the power, money, resources and bully pulpit to respond with the capacity of the US government. Over the past 10 months his leadership has been terrible and the cause for millions of cases and a quarter million deaths. He has set the tone, told people what to do and what not to do. He supported bad practices that have killed people. He made up stuff that is not true; he lied to the nation; he put his personal desires ahead of the people he has sworn to protect and serve. Our national disgrace is his burden. The lack of any national plan is his failure. His bending his subordinates to his political will is his failure. His defiance of sound scientific evidence is his failure. He knowingly held super spreader events to feed his ego. Because of all his failures 2020, his followers also behaved badly with Trump's support.

Millions upon millions of Trump supporters were encouraged by him to spread the virus, spread death, spread infirmity among their friends and neighbors. Trump has had 10 months to turn this around. He has failed to do so. He is to blame for our tragedy. Now, that does not let all those ignorant Trump supporters off the hook. They have been willingly spreading the virus and fighting against reasonable efforts to stem the the terrible tide. At the personal level (versus the national and state level) those Trump supporters bear the responsibility for being dumb and infecting others. Trump could easily have directed his ignorant mob to act differently. He didn't.

Did Trump require Cuomo to send sick people back into nursing homes? They had a barely used hospital ship Trump sent to NYC. Yes I know Trump is a screw up image wise, but I dont know what he has done poorly in providing resources. Pelosi invited us to Chinatown, Fauci admitted they were lying to us about masks, but you lay it all at Trump's feet. So what would Biden have done if Fauci told him the consensus wants to downplay masks to avoid panic buying of PPE?

 

[El_Machinae]

Again, the invitation to Chinatown was while the over-reaction to the pandemic was worse than the pandemic itself. Pelosi had less than perfect information, and even in retrospect, that advice was good advice. The administration itself declared the disease as 'contained' a couple days later.

The recommended advice will change over time, whenever there's new information and as the situation changes. The invitation to Chinatown isn't an example of 'spreading culpability' - it was the better option at the time. Throwing that example into your mix of blame just isn't a good idea, because it's a clear example of you just not understanding.

 

[Arwon]

Again, the invitation to Chinatown was while the over-reaction to the pandemic was worse than the pandemic itself. Pelosi had less than perfect information, and even in retrospect, that advice was good advice. The administration itself declared the disease as 'contained' a couple days later.

The recommended advice will change over time, whenever there's new information and as the situation changes. The invitation to Chinatown isn't an example of 'spreading culpability' - it was the better option at the time. Throwing that example into your mix of blame just isn't a good idea, because it's a clear example of you just not understanding.

Also while "go eat at Chinese restaurants for solidarity" is an incredibly hamfisted way to respond to anti-Asian and anti-Chinese bigotry, almost a form of centrist liberal self-parody where multiculturalism begins and ends at better food... the pandemic absolutely has exacerbated such bigotry and hatred.

So they were at least trying to respond in good faith to a real problem that did and does exist,. That is notably quite superior to the people from the US President on down who have spent heaps of time peddling hate, bigotry and blame as a transparent form of distraction.

 

[Patine]

Berzerker isn't here in good faith.

I'm not convinced you are, either.

 

[El_Machinae]

Also while "go eat at Chinese restaurants for solidarity" is an incredibly hamfisted way to respond to anti-Asian and anti-Chinese bigotry, almost a form of centrist liberal self-parody where multiculturalism begins and ends at better food... the pandemic absolutely has exacerbated such bigotry and hatred.

It think it was, and wasn't ham-fisted, honestly. It might be where I live, but Chinese restaurants are very much our window into the Chinese immigrant here. Like, go to a restaurant, and the ratio of non-immigrants to immigrants changes very much. So, if a community was going to be damaged by panic, 'eating at the restaurant' helps mitigate some of that damage. And having them empty out also would have aggravated the damage.

But yeah, it was still a bit hand-wringing clumsy

 

[onejayhawk]

You say this as if you know what the test entails. Given your grasp of knowledge, I'm not even sure you can find your way around a can opener.

Yeh, yeh. Make fun of the one with the degree.

The thing is you do not need to "test" if (x - y) is related to log(x/y). It is maths.

That's not what you test. To test an hypothesis, you see if it accounts for the data better than chance 90 or 95 times out of 100.

Agreed it's not happening. In any contested result Trump was bound to lose, most of the elites of the country want him gone. But I admit it would be interesting to see what would have happened had the got the about 50000 votes necessary to have Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona. It would be a tie in the electoral college? How are those officially resolved? And it would be a situation where any one "elector" changing sides could change the outcome, I imagine there would be no end of fighting over whether such a switch was legitimate.

That is likely true. There seems to be a consensus that the election was rigged in certain states, but also that they will be allowed to get away with it. Anything goes as long as Trump goes too.

J

 

[Arwon]

There seems to be a consensus that the election was rigged in certain states, but also that they will be allowed to get away with it. Anything goes as long as Trump goes too.

J

Mate do you realise that this is very very stupid

 

[Birdjaguar]

And so for the second time in two consecutive Republican presidencies they leave the nation in far worse shape than they got it from the Democrats. Their poor policies, lack of leadership and inability to master how to manage a government leave the nation is another terrible mess for someone else to try and clean up. In 2008 it was the Great Recession. Today is it an out of control pandemic, recession, presidential corruption and the abdication of responsibility for the nation by Republican leaders. And to add to the mess, Trumps is trying to fuel the fires of discontent and unhappiness to make any fixes even harder.

 

[Berzerker]

Patine, you keep ignoring the point me and Bird are trying to convey. Did President Trump personally go inject every single person who passed away with COVID, no. Did he actively go against medical advice, did he actively host super spreader events with his campaign rallies, was he the President during the entire pandemic? Yes on all accounts. On a NATIONAL level President Trump is the root cause for the pandemic getting out of control, his failure to institute a national response plan one that was already made for him prior to him taking office, his disdain for any restrictions at the national level. All of these are his fault as the chief executive, he has failed his oath and in so doing caused the negligent deaths of 260K Americans.

Did the Dems' protests spread the bug? I wonder what would have happened if Trump sent the army in to shut down protests for covid. He restricted travel at the national level while the states dealt with the bug within their jurisdictions. Thats how our system works and if Trump was 'dictating' to the states the Dems would have howled about that.

Actually, I for one have decided to simply skip any posts by Patine or Berzerker and/or replies to them, Gorbles. It makes reading the thread far easier.

You're so fetch

Berzerker isn't here in good faith.

Democrats spent 4 years accusing Trump of doing what they did, it will be quite a while before their lectures about good faith have any credibility.

That is terrible, you would never get republicans doing that.

But I do keep getting moral equivalencies from Democrats supposedly occupying the moral high ground.

Rural white folks don't like urban non whites having power over their lives.

Rural folk just love urbanites telling them what to do, but they gotta be the same skin color.