Political Prediction Thread

Yeah, Missouri, Georgia, Utah in this particular election, Indiana (less likely now with Pence on the ticket), and maybe a couple others are all examples along with Arizona of red states which could be flipped in a landslide but are too far from the tipping point to matter. North Carolina also served in that role in 2008 and 2012; it's closer to a true swing state now, but still pretty unlikely to be at or extremely close to the tipping point.
 
Anyway Trump doesn't need Minnesota to win, and probably shouldn't campaign there.

He needs Romney's + Florida Pennsylvania and Ohio.
 
Yeah, Missouri, Georgia, Utah in this particular election, Indiana (less likely now with Pence on the ticket), and maybe a couple others are all examples along with Arizona of red states which could be flipped in a landslide but are too far from the tipping point to matter. North Carolina also served in that role in 2008 and 2012; it's closer to a true swing state now, but still pretty unlikely to be at or extremely close to the tipping point.

Why might Missouri might flip? Outside of St. Louis, Columbia, and Kansas City, Missouri is made up more of people bitter about losing the Civil War than it is made up of people who would ever vote for a Democrat.
 
Well he aint getting Pennsylvania, so he's FUBAR

Then he needs Virginia + one of NH/NV/IA to compensate. But the polls will make him insist on PA, like the latest Quinnipiac +2 Trump in Pennsylvania.
 
Why might Missouri might flip? Outside of St. Louis, Columbia, and Kansas City, Missouri is made up more of people bitter about losing the Civil War than it is made up of people who would ever vote for a Democrat.

Strange, cos Missouri wasn't a secessionist state and therefore won the civil war :crazyeye:
 
Why might Missouri might flip? Outside of St. Louis, Columbia, and Kansas City, Missouri is made up more of people bitter about losing the Civil War than it is made up of people who would ever vote for a Democrat.

MO is always pretty close, I think it would go blue this time.

The truth is kind of in between these two. It was the closest state in 2008: McCain won it only by 0.13%, although it swung to a margin of over 9% for Romney in 2012. It used to be closer: Clinton won it twice and it was treated as a swing state in 2000 and 2004. Now Missouri and Indiana are the reddest states in the Midwest outside the Great Plains. In a blowout either could flip (as IN did and MO nearly did in 2008), but they are far too heavily Republican to be winnable in a close election.
 
Strange, cos Missouri wasn't a secessionist state and therefore won the civil war :crazyeye:

Most of Missouri was secessionist and very violently pro-slavery, and the Governor tried to secede. But the heavily German St. Louis was for the Union, and Missouri ended up unofficially split. Outside of St. Louis, the state was mostly Confederate, and to this day you'll find Confederate flags and Klan headquarters. They still hate St. Louis, too.
 
She has had a mathematically insurmountable lead for quite some time now (way over a month now). It isn't hubris to point out the obvious.
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Anyhow I'll make some predictions for the upcoming cycle:
1. Sanders will not be the VP
2. Obama will be a great campaigner this cycle once again (this time for Hillary)
3. Trump doesn't disappear unlike Palin did after he loses this election, too big of a personality - I predict he'll have influence on the Republican party for years to come
4. Nate Silver and the people at 538 call all of the states in the general election correctly once again
5. Movement conservatives will come out of this cycle only having their belief reinforced that they "needed" a true conservative in order to win, even though it wouldn't have made a difference
6. At least a 10% increase in Hispanic voter turnout (10% compared to 2012)
7. Supreme court replacements under the Democratic president will be fought and delayed for months, even years

So far got number 1 right. Number 5 seems like it will be right with the Cruz wing of the party remembering their supposed "shafting" after Trump loses badly as well
 
The mass migration from Puerto Rico mean there's now an additional 1,000,000 Hispanics in Florida.

So you think Florida will be on the Democrat's side of the tipping point ?

If so Florida's 29 EVs will be hard to replace for Trump. He'd need Romney + Ohio, Penn and something like MN WI and NV. I'd put Virginia in but with Kaine as VP pick that seems less likely than the rust belt states.
 
I don't think Trump will get much of bump from the convention. Maybe a couple of points.
I think Hillary will recover those after next week.
 
Kasich will drop out. - Check :goodjob:
Trump will get the nomination outright. - Check :goodjob:
Clinton will get the nomination outright.- Check :goodjob:
Sanders will stay in until Clinton has won outright.- Check :goodjob:
Sanders will be selected as VP.:mad: :thumbsdown: and no Liz Warren neither:cry:
The GOP will not run a 3rd party candidate and will "unite" behind Trump.- Check :goodjob:
Trump will pick a white male:goodjob: with brown hair:thumbsdown: as his running mate. - Half credit awarded by BirdJaguar:D
Hillary will get over 400 electoral votes.
The Democrats will take the Senate.
Trump will blame the GOP "not supporting me" for the loss.
The Senate will not have hearings on Garland and his nomination will be withdrawn after the election.
Prez Obama will nominate Sri Srinivanasan in the lame duck and he will be confirmed rather than wait for Hillary and a Democrat controlled Senate to appoint Bill Clinton.
I'm really bummed about the Tim Kaine pick... I mean I understand it completely... but still:(
 
Trump nominee :goodjob:
Clinton nominee :goodjob:
Landslide Clinton victory
Trump polls 58% close to the election
Trump picks "one of the good ones" for VP (Mexican-American, Muslim, etc.) The VP pick is either really nice and soft (if a woman) or a caricature of nasty manliness.
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Clinton considers Sanders, Warren for VP, picks Cory Booker.
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so far 2 out of 4 out of 6
 
My guesses, not strictly limited to the US:

Trump wins the nomination; establishment GOP disgusted but reluctantly accepts the hijacking of their party as the alternative to a Dem victory. Sanders has a good showing but still loses the nomination to Clinton. He eventually gives all his delegates and his endorsement to Clinton.

Trump wins significantly; he only gets stronger from controversy and scandal, while Clinton gets weaker. The next four years are awful; racists are emboldened, relations with countries around the world deteriorate, and the US goes to war with Iran.

In Europe, there is another major terrorist attack. Right-wing parties gain power in many countries. The UK leaves the EU, FN wins a lot of power in France in 2017, and the AfD get more seats in Germany. Overall, Europe is drifting significantly to the right. The war in Ukraine ends gradually as a frozen conflict; the rebel republics are de facto independent, war-torn, and run by warlords, while Ukraine remains embittered, impoverished, and dysfunctional. In the 2020's, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan dies without a clear successor, having prevented the appearance of any. Kazakhstan has a disputed election; Kazakh nationalists make ethnic Russians nervous, and before long Russia moves in forces and annexes most of northern Kazakhstan. Other countries grumble at the illegality of it but do nothing. Putin is still president.

In the Middle East, the Islamic State smolders on, nobody able to fill the vacuum in the west of Iraq. Assad forms agreements to share power with FSA officials, then murders or imprisons them as soon as his position is secure again.
Bolded=correct prediction.

Italics--I apparently didn't really know how the DNC delegate system worked. I basically meant that Sanders would fully support Clinton, which is true, but he wasn't able to just hand over his delegates, so I dunno what to count this as.

Underlined--hasn't happened...yet.
 
Trump will be assassinated sometime before the Republican convention. :sniper:
[He has pissed off too many very rich, very powerful, very ruthless people.]

Whomever is arrested and convicted of the assassination, will not be the true killer.

:yuck:
Sometimes skies are cloudy.
Sometimes skies are blue.
Sometimes they say that you eat the bear.
But sometimes the bear eats you.
 
Right, Wrong, and Hasn't Happened Yet (default black).

1. Trump wins a delegate percentage in the high 40's with Cruz trailing fairly distantly.
2. He goes into the GOP convention just short of a true majority,
but is still nominated.
3. A few Republicans claim not to be voting for him in the general election, but most just hold their noses and take it. There is no major third-party candidate.
4. Hillary's VP pick is a fairly boring, mainstream Democrat, not especially liberal or conservative by party standards.

5. Trump's VP pick will either be someone he had a significant personal connection to before the election, or one of his earliest endorsers (e.g. Christie).
6. For all the hullabaloo around the election, the election result is actually fairly boring. Hillary wins 303-235, and the map is identical to the 2012 map except that Trump wins Florida.
7. The RNC rewrites its delegate rules to be more like the Democratic ones. Superdelegates are introduced and states are required to have some amount of proportional representation - no winner-take-all anymore.
8. Third parties and independents collectively get more than 3.5% but less than 6%. It's their best result in a long time, but has no net influence on the final outcome (i.e. no Nader 2000 type of situation).
9. Garland does not get approved.
10. The Republicans lose some seats in both the House and the Senate, but not enough to lose control of either chamber.
 
The welfare state will be gradually disposed
more and more production and servises and so on is going to be privatised
the value of cooperation is going to get smeared to death
in short everything is going downhill forever
there is no light at the end of the tunnel

and of course we'll eventually die because of mismanaging the planet and toxicating it, which can be a political issue

Am I right or am I right?

Gonna make a few specific predictions though:

The Right-Frp coallition wins in 2017, but loses support from Left
SV does not get 4 %
Left does not get 4 %
AP get's at least 35 %
Frp gets a significant increase in votes
Mdg loses their only mandate
Red does not get a mandate

USA:
Voter turnout less than 50 %
Trump wins

No more countries leave EU :(
 
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