2020 US Election (Part 3)

[Zardnaar]

Mitt Romney has called on all Americans to get behind Joe Behind and says there is no evidence of voter fraud.

Mitts not one of the Trumpists though.

Well the systems seen to be holding.

 

[JPetroski]

I've found in my life the fundamental difference between left and right (pretty much globally even when those terms mean different things) is empathy. One either has this for strangers or does not and that seems to be the dividing line on most topics. I could dive into specifics but it won't help anyone so why bother.

That's a handy way to take an entire group of people and lump them into an inferior position to yourself.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Mitts not one of the Trumpists though.

Well the systems seen to be holding.

Yeah it's going to be interesting to see how things shift in the coming days, weeks and months within the Republican party.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yeah it's going to be interesting to see how things shift in the coming days, weeks and months within the Republican party.

Yes you can already see it happening with Fox news.

I think some if the smarter ones know they have to change or be reduced to a regional party and eventually no Senate.

Harris could end up as an influential VP if she's breaking Senate ties.

 

[GenMarshall]

And to help you have to win. Yo do that by not offending people who agree with you 40-90% of the time.

It’s why I find statements and redoric from the dirtbag left to be off putting for me and turns me off in considering their ideas and arguments. I guess I respond more better with personalities like The Beau of the Fifth Column cause he present his ideas in a manner that’s not off putting and not leave the viewer a feeling of being attacked. But rather more enlightened and educated (Not so different when dealing with a cruel teacher vs. a nice teacher). Especially for a person who jumped out of the Alt-right pipeline (Fortunately I found a YouTuber that had a similar experience but younger, Xanderhal. Who he fell into the reactionary Alt-right rabbit hole).

Its why I feel Cloud’s statements are off putting for me since they come off hostile (granted she does have her own reasons). Given her inclination on how certain segments of the population are too far off. It gives me feelings that she wouldn’t even give any chance on people who’ve pulled themselves out of the alt-right pipeline and redeem themselves.

I hate to the word, but I feel more privileged than a former skinhead Neo-Nazi. While I don’t have to constantly look behind my back and did not fell deep within the onion that goes into the Jewish Question (Yes, I binged on Innuendo Studio’s How to Radicalize a Normie), ex-Neo-Nazis do have to constantly check behind their backs because of a threat of retaliation from their former movement and aren’t fully accepted back into society despite having a change of heart.

Joe Biden is a Yes man, promoted above his competence

I see Biden being a sort of lame duck president. If the Republicans maintain a Senate majority and they make gains in the house in 2022. I see this as a repeat between the Nixon/Ford Administration and the Carter Administration. I foresee Biden would be a one term president with a Republican president defeating him in 2024. A sort of rubber and snapping back effect as a reaction against the general culture war.

the way AI see it, it’s gonna follow a pattern that would be similar on going from Nixon/Ford to Carter and eventually to Ronald Regan (This presumes if Trump does not run for President or he fails to capture the Republican primaries, otherwise I’d be an oddball where I’d be a repeat of a Grover Cleveland’s election/re-election.

I see it as a pyrrhic victory for the Democrats. In a sense that yes they are projected to take the White House, but congress is mixed where some seats are still maintained in the hands of the GOP or flipped, and in various state legislatures, the GOP has made gains. Not to mention minorities, especially Latinos and immigrants who fled communist dictatorships (especially older ones who also fled from the Eastern Bloc) skewed more towards the GOP.

I know GOP and more conservative leaning posters don’t want to hear this. But the Democratic Party needs to have a bit of soul searching and develop strategies to win back people they’ve alienated and people who’ve gone through the #WalkAway campaign.

 

[Gorbles]

Oh, I can't say I'm objective, though the distance, both cultural and geographical, helps.

Mind you, I am not disputing here whether @Cloud_Strife suffered discrimination and persecution on behalf of her identity. I'm warning about how she, and others here, let it affect their behavior toward others here, and that there's another way. Besides...we're on the internet. Whatever story I write here, you have no way of verifying it, and that goes for everyone. So it matters not whether I lay out my life story here or remain silent on that matter.

Yet, I've chose to give her the benefit of doubt and believe her story. Is it so much to ask for similar consideration?

You came into the discussion very aggressively. Not with your tone, but the content itself simply was. You suggested that a large part of the way Cloud feels like she does is on her. You lightly touched on another thing which is worth highlighting in a later post, "victim mentality".

Now, given your refusal to reveal anything about yourself (not that I disagree with the principle), you are not acting in any professional capacity. You have to therefore recognise that your comments will be treated as nothing more than opinion. It's a very common opinion, to opine on the suffering of others and believe you have a solution.

The problem is it doesn't matter if it's well-intentioned or not. If you're going to refuse to complement said opinions with anything of substance, it's going to wear thin fast. Victims are blamed for the things they suffer from a lot. It doesn't matter that your comments are purely on behaviour. Behaviour is affected by trauma and abuse. To say that victim is in charge of that is, honestly, laughable.

This is why you're getting the reaction you are. Not only is it not new to the people you're talking to, but you're offering nothing insightful to help clarify the rather generic advice you're giving out.

First of all, Kubler Ross' work was base on her work with terminal patients and only later generalized (weakened and watered down) to "grief". Here are some simplistic articles that maybe even you can understand.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_stages_of_grief

https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/supersurvivors/201707/why-the-five-stages-grief-are-wrong

Even kubler ross herself admitted to this.

Later in her life, Kübler-Ross noted that the stages are not a linear and predictable progression and that she regretted writing them in a way that was misunderstood.

Secondly, given your lack of knowledge on this particular topic, should I also make other assumptions about you?.... generalizations are cognitive distortions. Don't worry, you are not the only person doing this. @aelf and @Cloud_Strife seem to be very good at it. I can empathize with Cloud, given her history of traumatic experiences. Dont know about aelf....should I ask him for proof to justify my take on the situation?

not assuming is my job

Firstly, I appreciate the second link! The condescension less so. I can only assume it's a part of some greater attempt at something that I don't understand. It would make no sense if you were deliberately trying to be antagonistic.

The five stages of grief are relatively reductive. That doesn't mean that they're useless, and they're common to popular culture as a whole. Are you rejecting the osmosis of the principle into greater society entirely? Or are you trying to be pedantic as to get some jabs at me?

 

[Zardnaar]

It’s why I find statements and redoric from the dirtbag left to be off putting for me and turns me off in considering their ideas and arguments. I guess I respond more better with personalities like The Beau of the Fifth Column cause he present his ideas in a manner that’s not off putting and not leave the viewer a feeling of being attacked. But rather more enlightened and educated (Not so different when dealing with a cruel teacher vs. a nice teacher). Especially for a person who jumped out of the Alt-right pipeline (Fortunately I found a YouTuber that had a similar experience but younger, Xanderhal. Who he fell into the reactionary Alt-right rabbit hole).

Its why I feel Cloud’s statements are off putting for me since they come off hostile (granted she does have her own reasons). Given her inclination on how certain segments of the population are too far off. It gives me feelings that she wouldn’t even give any chance on people who’ve pulled themselves out of the alt-right pipeline and redeem themselves.

I hate to the word, but I feel more privileged than a former skinhead Neo-Nazi. While I don’t have to constantly look behind my back and did not fell deep within the onion that goes into the Jewish Question (Yes, I binged on Innuendo Studio’s How to Radicalize a Normie), ex-Neo-Nazis do have to constantly check behind their backs because of a threat of retaliation from their former movement and aren’t fully accepted back into society despite having a change of heart.


I see Biden being a sort of lame duck president. If the Republicans maintain a Senate majority and they make gains in the house in 2022. I see this as a repeat between the Nixon/Ford Administration and the Carter Administration. I foresee Biden would be a one term president with a Republican president defeating him in 2024. A sort of rubber and snapping back effect as a reaction against the general culture war.

the way AI see it, it’s gonna follow a pattern that would be similar on going from Nixon/Ford to Carter and eventually to Ronald Regan (This presumes if Trump does not run for President or he fails to capture the Republican primaries, otherwise I’d be an oddball where I’d be a repeat of a Grover Cleveland’s election/re-election.

I see it as a pyrrhic victory for the Democrats. In a sense that yes they are projected to take the White House, but congress is mixed where some seats are still maintained in the hands of the GOP or flipped, and in various state legislatures, the GOP has made gains. Not to mention minorities, especially Latinos and immigrants who fled communist dictatorships (especially older ones who also fled from the Eastern Bloc) skewed more towards the GOP.

I know GOP and more conservative leaning posters don’t want to hear this. But the Democratic Party needs to have a bit of soul searching and develop strategies to win back people they’ve alienated and people who’ve gone through the #WalkAway campaign.

The outrage politics needs to be dialed back.

Bidens speeches in that regard have been dialed back and even Fox news seems to be doing the same.

Hopefully it will work out. Without Trump around I suspect a lot of the left won't react the way they do online.

Lots of twitter noise url it's shut up already. There was already signs of it wearing out it's welcome before the election.

 

[aelf]

Firstly, I appreciate the second link! The condescension less so. I can only assume it's a part of some greater attempt at something that I don't understand. It would make no sense if you were deliberately trying to be antagonistic.

He's just an old reactionary with a love of Trump. He drives by occasionally to display his contempt for the left and disappears. Nobody cares about what he says except for the alt-right cheerleaders.

Best to just ignore.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Rush's lung cancer has advanced to stage 4.

The Georgia senate runoff in 2 months might be his last political ballgame unless he can beat the odds like Alex Trebek.

Alex Trebek has passed away.

 

[onejayhawk]

I'm no Biden enthusiast, but you're just reaping what you sowed, being such a fervent believer in Trump. I believe you've moved onto the "bargaining" stage, at the very least, which is good. The sooner you get through the stages, the better off you'll be.

Are there any Biden enthusiasts?

Fervent believer in Trump seems excessive, unless you count any support at all as fervent.

And you love Trump, so whatever you said there counts for nothing.

I don't love Trump, but I don't hate him, so I can be objective. You hate Trump, so I am unsure you are up to objectivity.

Alex Trebek has passed away.

That has been expected all week. It's the end of an era.

 

[Berzerker]

Jeopardy is an entertaining encyclopedia

 

[GenMarshall]

Hopefully it will work out. Without Trump around I suspect a lot of the left won't react the way they do online.

I’d give it time before the left would turn their rage onto Biden. But that’s just my prediction judging that most voted Biden as a form of “voting against Trump”.

Me? I’m debating on tuning out and turning off my Brain on politics and never bothering with it again (even to the point of not voting) after going through a rollercoaster since 2016. Though I suspect that’s just nascent nihilism forming within me due to the ennui from the culture war.

 

[Kyriakos]

The dem party tends to more easily involve itself in foreign matters and at times declare war, so if that happens where do you think it will strike this time?
Why once again the same, tired targets like Syria, Iran, Libya. Why not something a bit to the north of Lebanon? ^_^

 

[GenMarshall]

I honestly don’t want to see America involving itself or starting new conflicts that we have no business in.

 

[Gorbles]

Are there any Biden enthusiasts?

Fervent believer in Trump seems excessive, unless you count any support at all as fervent.

There are undoubtedly Biden enthusiasts. Unsure how relevant the question is, really.

As for your belief, no, it's most definitely fervent. It goes way past "any support at all" and is generally wholeheartedly for anything done by him directly or his administration. There are some exceptions, naturally, but in seeing so many of your posts it's somewhat undeniable.

I was actually interested to see your reaction to a Trump loss, because of this fervent ironclad faith in both his achievements and apparently certain reelection. As it goes, you're not capable of objectivity like you claim. You're making all sorts of bad faith commentary about Biden as a person despite defending Trump's repeated excesses to the hilt. It goes far beyond supporting Trump because you see the alternative is worse. Your belief is real.

 

[bernie14]

......Are you rejecting the osmosis of the principle into greater society entirely? Or are you trying to be pedantic as to get some jabs at me?

Not either intended as an indictment of the system or a personal insult. Hopefully it was educational.

Personally, I wouldn't listen to @aelf. I suspect he is a sock puppet intent on spreading disinformation.

 

[GenMarshall]

I was actually interested to see your reaction to a Trump loss, because of this fervent ironclad faith in both his achievements and apparently certain reelection.

To be fair, I haven’t seen diehard Trump supporters drop to their knees and scream to the skies yelling “NO!” or “Triggered Meltdown of Trump Supporters Compilation #224 - Election Edition” circulating YouTube

 

[Drakle]

Yang is moving to Georgia to campaign and maybe vote in the doubleheader runoff elections.

The best thing we could do for Joe is to get him a Democratic Senate. There should be coordination of resources. Everyone who campaigned for Joe should get ready to head to Georgia. I’ll go. It’s the only way to sideline Mitch and give Joe a unified government.

There isn’t much time. The earliest date for absentee ballots to be mailed for the runoff is Nov. 18. The registration deadline is Dec. 7. The In-person early voting begins Dec. 14.

Great news #yanggang - Evelyn and I are moving to Georgia to help@ossoff and@ReverendWarnock win! This is our only chance to clear Mitch out of the way and help Joe and Kamala get things done in the next 4 years. More details to come but let’s go!!!

I wonder if he might stay and run for Governor of Georgia in 2022. New York is pretty heavy in terms of other Democratic politicians to run against, while Georgia is a wider possible opening.


Anyway, Democrats have gained with more consistent voters as coalitions have shifted.

2008 Senate

Republican
1,867,097 General
1,228,033 Runoff

Runoff was 65.77% of general turnout.

Democratic

1,757,393 General
909,923 Runoff
Runoff was 51.77% of general turnout

2018 SOS

Republican
1,906,588 General
764,855 Runoff
.Runoff was 40.11% of general turnout.

Democratic
1,890,310 General
709,049 Runoff

Runoff was 37.50% of general turnout

SOS is a less important and less partisan office than Senators. So 2018 was much lower than in 2008. But in 2018, Democratic turnout relative fall was less than 3% worse than Republicans, instead of over 11 points.

I also wonder if, without Trump, Republican turnout could fall even worse than usual. I doubt Trump will offer much support, if any. He doesn't actually care about the Republican party. My guess is the only reason he would, is if he is planning on running in 2024.

In 2012 Romney got 2,078,688 votes out Georgia
In 2016 Trump got 2,089,104 votes out of Georgia. If you consider population growth, that is essentially a decline.
In 2020 Trump got 2,455,305 (count not finalised yet). So he juiced an extra nearly 400,000 voters. So a fair number, though not as many, as got pulled out in some other states, like Florida or Texas.

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1325508657346453510

As it stands in GA: David Perdue has 837 more votes than Donald Trump Jon Ossoff has 99,633 fewer votes than Joe Biden

Perdue as an incumbent has a bit more appeal than Trump. Less than 1000 votes ahead of President thought isn't a super strong showing for an incumbent Senator

Ossoff had a undercount/ticket-splitting with Biden. So he starts a bit behind already. The Special is too fractured to really draw hard conclusions from.

Anyway, the Georgia runoff is an interesting test of the in-person campaigning. Democrats virtual campaigned for general, and now will very likely go back to in-person canvassing. Could have an interesting impact.


Also a take from Nate Silver.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325495942662000641

A lot of punditry (including my own) assumed that 2020 was an exceptionally favorable electoral environment for Democrats. But most Americans are better off financially now than they were 4 years ago, and thanks to CARES, better off than they were last January. And most know it!

of course, a lot of other variables that seem to augur in Dems' favor (a much-loathed Republican president shamelessly abetting the spread of a pandemic disease, for example)...

...But it looks like median U.S. voter had *a lot* more money in the bank this November than they did when they elected that economy expert from The Apprentice.

Yeah, our economics + incumbency prior had the race as a tossup. Growth was solid for Trump's first 3 years, the 3Q recovery has been impressive, and CARES put a lot of money in people's pockets.

Per our reckoning, Trump *underperformed* the fundamentals by 4-5 points based on some combination of his COVID handling and ... everything else.

It's also not as though COVID was something that necessarily doomed Trump. Off-hand, lots of incumbents around the world—in countries that handled it even marginally better than the US—seemed to see their popularity rise. (We're working on more rigorous analysis on this topic.)

Makes the whole Bernie/Warren thing of making the election, a referendum on the state of the economy and broader economic system look very dangerous. Biden had some economic attacks, but his campaign hit a lot more on other issues.

Voters only see the President in terms of stimulus. So they threw out House Democrats who championed the stimulus, in favour of Republicans who would have prevented it.

Joe Biden if he wants to win 2022 and 2024, needs a way to get money moving.

 

[RobAnybody]

The dem party tends to more easily involve itself in foreign matters and at times declare war...

This laughably untrue. Unless you limit yourself to multi-lateral agreements & trade deals I suppose.

 

[Kyriakos]

This laughably untrue. Unless you limit yourself to multi-lateral agreements & trade deals I suppose.

If by multi-lateral you mean bringing the lapdog England along, ok