2020 US Election (Part 3)

[Patine]

Imagine your reaction if someone had replied to you with this

It's funny that's no one has tried it. In fact, simply brushing off inane attempts at baiting as a whole, without resorting to vulgarity and personal insults, are very rare on this forum, for some reason...

 

[Takhisis]

Actually, I for one have decided to simply skip any posts by Patine or Berzerker and/or replies to them, Gorbles. It makes reading the thread far easier.

Back to the actual topic of this thread, Donald Trump continues to refuse to concede. I wonder how many people will be hoodwinked into giving money to his election-challenging efforts.
And let us not lose sight of the fact that this is still a stress-test of the elections and in 2024 if not 2022 we should see a repeat of this, trying to snatch even a couple congressmen if it helps, because it helps.

 

[amadeus]

He’s got two weeks until electors meet, and it’s my understanding now that Biden is being given the same security briefs as Trump. The non-concession thing continues to be, thankfully, just a song and dance routine.

 

[Birdjaguar]

He’s got two weeks until electors meet, and it’s my understanding now that Biden is being given the same security briefs as Trump.

Trump only gets two bullet points and a picture in his briefing. Anything more is too taxing for him. I'm sure Biden will something more substantial.

 

[Verbose]

It's funny that's no one has tried it. In fact, simply brushing off inane attempts at baiting as a whole, without resorting to vulgarity and personal insults, are very rare on this forum, for some reason...

You know: "Someone is wrong on the internet."
https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url...ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCIjK2v7Vqe0CFQAAAAAdAAAAABAI

 

[Samson]

TV news reporting that Biden is now getting daily briefings, but Trump has elected not to get them for a while.

 

[Zardnaar]

Trump 20 years ago.

 

[onejayhawk]

To anyone that says that it has been shown that there was no cheating, note them as propaganda junkies. Here is a report on the much discussed vote dumps. From the conclusion.

This report studies 8,954 individual updates to the vote totals in all 50 states and finds that four individual updates — two of which were widely noticed on the internet, including by the President — are profoundly anomalous; they deviate from a pattern which is otherwise found in the vast majority of the remaining 8,950 vote updates. The findings presented by this report [28]suggest that four vote count updates — which collectively were decisive in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, and thus decisive of a critical forty-two electoral votes — are especially anomalous and merit further investigation.
https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020​

42 EV is enough to swing the election. The report notes that these patterns are only suggestive, but it's very suggestive. If you believe in science, you also believe in digging deeper.

J

 

[Gorbles]

To anyone that says that it has been shown that there was no cheating, note them as propaganda junkies. Here is a report on the much discussed vote dumps. From the conclusion.

This report studies 8,954 individual updates to the vote totals in all 50 states and finds that four individual updates — two of which were widely noticed on the internet, including by the President — are profoundly anomalous; they deviate from a pattern which is otherwise found in the vast majority of the remaining 8,950 vote updates. The findings presented by this report [28]suggest that four vote count updates — which collectively were decisive in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, and thus decisive of a critical forty-two electoral votes — are especially anomalous and merit further investigation.
https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020​

42 EV is enough to swing the election. The report notes that these patterns are only suggestive, but it's very suggestive. If you believe in science, you also believe in digging deeper.

J

All that does it spend a lot of words claiming fraud as the reason for the evolving difference in votes without actually saying anything as to why it's fraud. The author isn't known, or even public, and there is no effort to explain the alleged difference in a benign way. All it does (as usual of conservative sources) is allege foul play in the generic without actually providing evidence.

To anyone who believes in this uncritically simply because it looks like the author took an intro to stats course, note them as propaganda junkies

 

[Bamspeedy]

To anyone that says that it has been shown that there was no cheating, note them as propaganda junkies. Here is a report on the much discussed vote dumps. From the conclusion.

This report studies 8,954 individual updates to the vote totals in all 50 states and finds that four individual updates — two of which were widely noticed on the internet, including by the President — are profoundly anomalous; they deviate from a pattern which is otherwise found in the vast majority of the remaining 8,950 vote updates. The findings presented by this report [28]suggest that four vote count updates — which collectively were decisive in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, and thus decisive of a critical forty-two electoral votes — are especially anomalous and merit further investigation.
https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020​

42 EV is enough to swing the election. The report notes that these patterns are only suggestive, but it's very suggestive. If you believe in science, you also believe in digging deeper.

J

Well, let's think about what causes 'vote updates'. It's when a polling station (or multiple ones if reporting results at same time) has stopped counting and reporting what they have. So the largest votes totals would be in the most populous areas, which would not surprise me if these were where the 'jumps' for Biden were. Highly populated areas tend to vote more D than R. And in many highly populated areas, especially one with a significant black population, it is not surprising, or sometimes expected the vote will be 80-90% for the democrat.

So the area that is most heavily D is also the area with the largest number of total votes, this will obviously cause the largest 'jump'.

 

[Samson]

To anyone that says that it has been shown that there was no cheating, note them as propaganda junkies. Here is a report on the much discussed vote dumps. From the conclusion.

This report studies 8,954 individual updates to the vote totals in all 50 states and finds that four individual updates — two of which were widely noticed on the internet, including by the President — are profoundly anomalous; they deviate from a pattern which is otherwise found in the vast majority of the remaining 8,950 vote updates. The findings presented by this report [28]suggest that four vote count updates — which collectively were decisive in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, and thus decisive of a critical forty-two electoral votes — are especially anomalous and merit further investigation.
https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020​

42 EV is enough to swing the election. The report notes that these patterns are only suggestive, but it's very suggestive. If you believe in science, you also believe in digging deeper.

J

10,000 words, no abstract. Care to summarise it? I just started, and it does not seem to make sense:

In other words, it's not surprising to see vote updates with large margins, and it's not surprising to see vote updates with very large ratios of support between the candidates, but it is surprising to see vote updates which are both

Why? Are they not mathematically related with the total vote number? So in this graph:

If you added vote number you would get a constant function? So all they are really saying is that there were 4 large pro-Biden sets of votes, because Biden gets votes in densely populated areas?

[EDIT] From wolfram alpha, yeah they are directly related with sample size, but how is "(x-y) / log(x/y)" related to "the average wait time to roast a 10 lb turkey"?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

To anyone that says that it has been shown that there was no cheating, note them as propaganda junkies.

38 judges are propaganda Junkies. Got it!

Here is a report on the much discussed vote dumps. From the conclusion.

This report studies 8,954 individual updates to the vote totals in all 50 states and finds that four individual updates — two of which were widely noticed on the internet, including by the President — are profoundly anomalous; they deviate from a pattern which is otherwise found in the vast majority of the remaining 8,950 vote updates. The findings presented by this report [28]suggest that four vote count updates — which collectively were decisive in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, and thus decisive of a critical forty-two electoral votes — are especially anomalous and merit further investigation.
https://votepatternanalysis.substack.com/p/voting-anomalies-2020​

42 EV is enough to swing the election. The report notes that these patterns are only suggestive, but it's very suggestive. If you believe in science, you also believe in digging deeper.

J

I agree, reaching rock bottom is no reason to stop digging. Keep digging J! And tell the courts all about it.

Love,
Ziggy Propaganda Junkie Stardust.


edit: Is this the one?

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/wisconsin-vote-dump/

However, no fraudulent activity of furtive “dump” of ballots was behind this phenomenon. By law, Wisconsin was not allowed to begin tabulating absentee ballots (no matter how early they were sent in) until 7:00 AM on Election Day. Biden’s vote count took a big jump (while Trump’s increased much more modestly) around the time in question because that was when Milwaukee County finished and reported the tabulation of its approximately 170,000 absentee ballots. That occurrence was doubly favorable for Biden, both because Democrats were far more likely to vote via absentee ballots, and because Milwaukee County is the most populous county in Wisconsin and is an overwhelmingly Democratic area:

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported on the bulge in Biden votes, and the reasons behind it, at the time it took place:

I lose track with all the "fraud" cases you guys are finding.

But you can dismiss all this as Propaganda, bubble integrity is secure.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

By the way

Regardless, I am hearing that Limbaugh claims the Trump vote broke the system. The logic goes that the computer counting software used in 33 states was carefully loaded to give Biden a winning edge, but that the Trump vote overwhelmed the parameters, so they had to stop the counting and fabricate physical ballots. They are taking this theory to court. We'll see how it goes.
J

I do not disagree that Rush is a rabble rouser. He's also a very good debater who vets his facts carefully. I have not heard his whole argument, but the outline I already gave passes the sniff test. It's a massive conspiracy, covering many states, but the lawyers claim they can prove it.

How has that been working out?

 

[Estebonrober]

I mean siting anonymous blogs for analytical information is still a step up from accusing Hugo Chavez of attacking America from the grave. . .lmao the amount of pathetic these days. . .

 

[aelf]

"Propaganda junkie" is such a weak pejorative anyway, even more than "partisan".

 

[Lexicus]

"Propaganda junkie" is such a weak pejorative anyway, even more than "partisan".

Finest triple-distilled 200 proof projection folks

 

[onejayhawk]

All that does it spend a lot of words claiming fraud as the reason for the evolving difference in votes without actually saying anything as to why it's fraud. The author isn't known, or even public, and there is no effort to explain the alleged difference in a benign way. All it does (as usual of conservative sources) is allege foul play in the generic without actually providing evidence.

To anyone who believes in this uncritically simply because it looks like the author took an intro to stats course, note them as propaganda junkies

No it doesn't say that at all. It explains in detail why four outliers are suspect and merit closer examination. There is a great deal of explanation why the outliers are likely caused by outside factors.

By the way How has that been working out?

Quite well. Thanks for asking.

10,000 words, no abstract. Care to summarise it? I just started, and it does not seem to make sense:

In other words, it's not surprising to see vote updates with large margins, and it's not surprising to see vote updates with very large ratios of support between the candidates, but it is surprising to see vote updates which are both
​

Why? Are they not mathematically related with the total vote number? So in this graph: If you added vote number you would get a constant function? So all they are really saying is that there were 4 large pro-Biden sets of votes, because Biden gets votes in densely populated areas?

[EDIT] From wolfram alpha, yeah they are directly related with sample size, but how is "(x-y) / log(x/y)" related to "the average wait time to roast a 10 lb turkey"?

That's one explanation to test, I suppose. The point is that more tests are warranted.

J

 

[GenMarshall]

He’s got two weeks until electors meet, and it’s my understanding now that Biden is being given the same security briefs as Trump. The non-concession thing continues to be, thankfully, just a song and dance routine.

Though I’m not resting my laurels because I’m not gonna get blindsided if Trump does pull it off and wins via contingent election if neither candidate gets 270 on the 14th of December. I don’t know, but that’s just the realist-glass-half-empty in me.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

So all they are really saying is that there were 4 large pro-Biden sets of votes, because Biden gets votes in densely populated areas?

Yep, and at the time no one was surprised because they were mail-in ballots from densely populated areas, and they released the results in one go.


https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-biden-vote-dumps/

Moreover, this phenomenon was precisely expected to take place in states that were not allowed (by their own laws) to begin counting mail-in ballots as they were received, but instead had to wait until Election Day or just beforehand — particularly in the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, whose results Trump most vociferously disputed:

Do not attribute to conspiracy what can easily be explained by demographics.

edit: And the best (saddest) thing about this is, Trump knows it too. He's playing his base for suckers, and doing so quite blatantly and transparent.

Quite well. Thanks for asking.

Good to hear! Already looking forward to the next one

 

[aelf]

That's one explanation to test, I suppose. The point is that more tests are warranted.

You say this as if you know what the test entails. Given your grasp of knowledge, I'm not even sure you can find your way around a can opener.