Political Prediction Thread

[dutchfire]

Predictions: North Carolina and Virginia will vote more democratic than Iowa this election. (The latter I'm more confident about than the former )

 

[Rashiminos]

Presuming Hillary remains the nominee post-DNC (and same for Trump)... Trump takes the general election.
If the delegates at the RNC unseat Trump, the GOP will lose the general election, no matter the candidate for or against.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I was starting to lose hope that I would get a clean sweep on my predictions as it seemed more and more that Liz Warren would be the Veep nominee instead of Bernie, and Trump was seeming to lean towards picking Newt, Mike Pence or Joni Ernst, instead of a brown-haired guy like I said...

But now my predictions seem to have new life! Christie's still in it, and Bernie has finally endorsed Hillary, and the next day Liz Warren is slotted for the first day of the convention instead of VP day... so maybe I sweep afterall

 

[Lexicus]

I dunno, I just can't see Bernie being the VP pick. Will gladly eat my words if I'm wrong though.

 

[Phrossack]

My guesses, not strictly limited to the US:

Trump wins the nomination; establishment GOP disgusted but reluctantly accepts the hijacking of their party as the alternative to a Dem victory. Sanders has a good showing but still loses the nomination to Clinton. He eventually gives all his delegates and his endorsement to Clinton.

Trump wins significantly; he only gets stronger from controversy and scandal, while Clinton gets weaker. The next four years are awful; racists are emboldened, relations with countries around the world deteriorate, and the US goes to war with Iran.

In Europe, there is another major terrorist attack. Right-wing parties gain power in many countries. The UK leaves the EU, FN wins a lot of power in France in 2017, and the AfD get more seats in Germany. Overall, Europe is drifting significantly to the right. The war in Ukraine ends gradually as a frozen conflict; the rebel republics are de facto independent, war-torn, and run by warlords, while Ukraine remains embittered, impoverished, and dysfunctional. In the 2020's, President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan dies without a clear successor, having prevented the appearance of any. Kazakhstan has a disputed election; Kazakh nationalists make ethnic Russians nervous, and before long Russia moves in forces and annexes most of northern Kazakhstan. Other countries grumble at the illegality of it but do nothing. Putin is still president.

In the Middle East, the Islamic State smolders on, nobody able to fill the vacuum in the west of Iraq. Assad forms agreements to share power with FSA officials, then murders or imprisons them as soon as his position is secure again.

So far, let's see: Trump seems on course to win the nomination. Sanders did better than many expected but still lost in the end and endorsed Clinton. The UK has voted to leave the EU but hasn't done it yet. The Islamic State is still around, though annoyingly I forgot to predict how long it would last. I give it maybe two years, at least in Syria and Iraq. So far, on course to get about five predictions right and none wrong yet. Probably six or seven; Sanders will probably give his delegates to Clinton for what it's worth, and Ukraine seems like a frozen conflict that will stay that way for decades or until Russia annexes the eastern regions outright. By next year, we'll know how my predictions about the elections in the US, France, and Germany fare.

 

[Phrossack]

And, sadly, the truck attack in Nice covers the "major terrorist attack in Europe" prediction...

 

[Tahuti]

Hillary Clinton gets close to being arrested, yet is somehow saved from that fate. Bernie will still compete for presidential electors in states that have proportional seat allocation for the electoral college, to put pressure on Hillary, threatening to abstain if Hillary doesn't compromise. Anti-Trump Republicans will prop up Hillary Democrats and Libertarians, who will have a presence in the electoral college as well. Libertarians endorse Sanders, Trump folds to Hillary in response and Hillary will become president.

 

[Sommerswerd]

:

Kasich will drop out. - Check
Trump will get the nomination outright. - Check
Clinton will get the nomination outright.- Check
Sanders will stay in until Clinton has won outright.- Check
Sanders will be selected as VP.
The GOP will not run a 3rd party candidate and will "unite" behind Trump.- Check
Trump will pick a white male with brown hair as his running mate.
Hillary will get over 400 electoral votes.
The Democrats will take the Senate.
Trump will blame the GOP "not supporting me" for the loss.
The Senate will not have hearings on Garland and his nomination will be withdrawn after the election.
Prez Obama will nominate Sri Srinivanasan in the lame duck and he will be confirmed rather than wait for Hillary and a Democrat controlled Senate to appoint Bill Clinton.

Can I get a ruling on this? Do I get half credit or am I just wrong?

 

[Lexicus]

Well I tried to Google Mike Pence's hair color before it turned white, to no avail. There are like no pictures of this dude on the internet from before his hair turned white.

 

[dutchfire]

Google fu:http://www.therepublic.com/2016/07/...st-communion-his-wedding-his-family-and-more/

 

[Sommerswerd]

Google fu:http://www.therepublic.com/2016/07/...st-communion-his-wedding-his-family-and-more/

Ha! I'm calling that a debatable point!

Spoiler :

 

[Birdjaguar]

: Can I get a ruling on this? Do I get half credit or am I just wrong?

Half credit for sure.

 

[_random_]

Tami Sawyer will take out the incumbent in Tennessee House District 90.

Tennessee House District 96 will flip to the Democrats.

 

[Kennigit]

Minnesota has gone for the Democrat the last 10 presidential elections. The second longest such current streak of going for the Democrat is 7.

I predict Minnesota will flip (D)

-K

 

[Sommerswerd]

If Minnesota flips the Democrats will lose and deserve to lose.

 

[Kennigit]

In some worlds Minnesota is close

Not in this world, but in some

 

[Ajidica]

If Minnesota flips the Democrats will lose and deserve to lose.

I agree with that. Trump came third in the Minnesota GOP Primary, both our senators remain popular and are DFL, the governor is well regarded and DFL, and the state GOP has been undergoing a hilarious collapse that has seen them protesting new state office buildings (because the century old capitol was too small and needed massive renovations) and refusing to authorized increased funding for a light rail line that has already been approved but has gotten bogged down in legal battles because a bunch of rich [censored] decided to start complaining that it would lower their property values and that rather than locating the light rail line along their property (with easements in place for a long ago abandoned streetcar line) the light rail should dig a tunnel under a lake.

 

[Bootstoots]

Minnesota and Michigan are both pretty irrelevant: they are too far from the tipping point. A Republican who wins either of them has probably already won Iowa and Wisconsin, and likely other Dem-tilting swing states like Colorado, and so they'll have won anyway. Trump is also fairly unpopular in Minnesota along with Wisconsin. The Kerry state he's most likely to win (not all that likely, but more likely than any other state that went to Kerry in 2004) remains Pennsylvania.

The Democratic equivalent of Minnesota is something like Arizona: sure, they might win it if Trump goes down in flames, but they'll already have won anyway.

 

[AdrienIer]

The Democratic equivalent of Minnesota is something like Arizona: sure, they might win it if Trump goes down in flames, but they'll already have won anyway.

I'd have thought Missouri

 

[Sommerswerd]

Minnesota and Michigan are both pretty irrelevant: they are too far from the tipping point. A Republican who wins either of them has probably already won Iowa and Wisconsin, and likely other Dem-tilting swing states like Colorado, and so they'll have won anyway. Trump is also fairly unpopular in Minnesota along with Wisconsin. The Kerry state he's most likely to win (not all that likely, but more likely than any other state that went to Kerry in 2004) remains Pennsylvania.

The Democratic equivalent of Minnesota is something like Arizona: sure, they might win it if Trump goes down in flames, but they'll already have won anyway.

Agreed. Utah is another one of those... If the Democrats win Utah you won't find out until the next morning because Hillary would have been announced as the winner long before that and you'd have gone to bed.